Up until the draft, I’d like to spend some time breaking down the mock draft picks within the Draft community in the hope that it may stimulate some quality discussion (or at least some good thoughts).

As a part of the first segment I will start by looking at the various picks assigned to the teams drafting in the 1-2 range (starting with St. Louis).  I’ll express why I think an individual is a good or bad fit for a given team.

#1  St. Louis Rams

Possible choices: Sam Bradford

After he successfully answered the nagging questions about his health, Sam Bradford has become the consensus #1 overall pick. Ever since I released my first mock draft, I figured that things would play out this way.  The Rams are desperate for a young quarterback to lead this team, especially after just releasing Marc Bulger. I won’t rehash things too much, but Bradford is the best quarterback prospect in the Draft, and is a legitimate top 5 selection. On many levels, it makes little sense to choose one of the DT’s over the game’s most important position.

#2 Detroit Lions

Possible choices: Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

My friend at Lions In Winter, Ty Schalter artfully explained why each of these players would or would not fit into the Lions system.

Suffice it to say, the Russell Okung selection was a knee-jerk lashing out against the under-appreciated LT Jeff Backus. In actuality, the Lions real hole existed at LG. If you add in the fact that they just patched that hole up by trading for a capable starter in Rob Sims, the selection of Okung makes even less sense. I will concede that selecting Okung (or Trent Williams) would give the Lions their future LT  once Backus retires, and it gives them additional flexibility and depth. They could have insurance for Gosder Cherilus if he continues to slump at RT, but that is still an exorbitant sum of money to hand out to a RT.

It is well known that LT provides considerably more positional value than a DT. But pass rushers are very valuable. Period. Ndamukong is not a 2-down run-stuffer. He is every bit a 3-down pass-rushing, run-stopping defensive lineman, which raises his value. I would agree that Okung should be the pick IF all things were equal. We aren’t considering apples to apples here.

Ndamukong Suh is considered the far superior prospect, and I don’t say that to take anything away from Okung. It’s just that Suh is a fantastic prospect. When you pay a player $40+ million, you have a faint hope that this player can be really special. In my estimation, Suh has a higher chance of being that kind of player.

The important key to drafting in the top 5 picks, as Mike Mayock says, is “to control value.” I believe Suh is the better value. His talent outweighs Okung’s positional value advantage.

The other possible target of the Lions is Gerald McCoy. I happen to believe he is not quite as good a fit as Suh for the Lions defense if you look at the defenses that both defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and head coach Jim Schwartz have run in the past.

For example, McCoy is a perfect fit for the Tampa Two defense, which relies almost exclusively on it’s front four to generate pressure, and thrives with a gap penetrating 3-technique such as McCoy. The Lions too would rely mainly on their defensive front to generate  a pass rush, but they are also have more duties in the run game. Gunther Cunningham likes to show different looks, and a scheme diverse player like Suh will allow him to create some unique packages to confuse opposing offenses.

Even so, I can’t argue strongly against McCoy because he is such an exceptional player.  But I’d rather have Suh, if I were the Lions.

So here’s the truth. Week 15 of the NFL regular season has changed everything.

Before this week, there were 3 teams with a decent shot at getting Suh. Tampa Bay was holding the number 1 draft spot, until they smothered the Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland was nipping at their heels with the number 3 slot. However, both teams miraculously won their games, thus pushing them both behind Detroit. Now, the draft order should look like this:

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. Cleveland Browns

In order for the Lions to maintain this number 2 draft slot, they must maintain a weaker strength of schedule than the Bucs. Considering that the Lions have a nine game advantage over the Bucs with only two weeks remaining, it seems likely that Detroit will be selecting ahead of Tampa in April.

Right now, here is how each team stands in strength of schedule in terms of win-loss record:

Detroit Lions opponents: 115-108  (0.51570 %)

Tampa Bay Bucs opponents: 124-98 (0.55856 %)

Finally, the main reason that Detroit will land Suh in the draft is because St. Louis should be drafting a QB with the number 1 overall pick. This is a quarterback-driven league, and although the Rams need to upgrade their pass rush, they will decide to replace Marc Bulger with a young signal caller.

The only way that I see Detroit passing up Suh is if they are given a blockbuster deal worth at least two 1st round picks, and will allow the Lions to pick outside the top 10 for once.

2. St. Louis Rams

-Jason Smith (LT/Baylor)

NFL.com

With Orlando Pace as its anchor, the Rams used to have one of the dominant offensive lines in the NFL. As his ability has declined, so has that of the offense as a whole.  For the past few years, St. Louis has been trying to find a player to succeed Pace and return the Rams to the being one of the elite teams in the NFC. After missing out on Jake Long last year, I think the Rams jump at the chance to draft an offensive tackle with the #2 pick. And they don’t have much choice.  Alex Barron hasn’t improved much over the last two years; Marc Bulger has to be better protected; and the unit allowed 45 sacks over the regular season.

Since Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe are both talented pass blockers and have great athleticism, it’s difficult for me to say which one will be chosen. Resulting from his great combine, I would think Jason Smith gets the slight edge over Monroe. Plus Smith might be a better fit because he has that nasty nature and finishes his blocks very well. That will come in handy when he paves the way for Steven Jackson in the run game.

-Eugene Monroe (LT/Virginia)

NFL.com

Monroe has all the things you look for in a offensive tackle: long arms, quick feet, great size, intelligence, work ethic. Unfortunately, he lost  momentum at the combine when he only posted 23 reps when his peer, Jason Smith, recorded 33 reps. I suspect Monroe’s long arms make it tough to bench press as efficiently as the more barrel-chested linemen.

On a more positive note, Eugene Monroe is a less risky pick because of his experience. Whereas his counterpart Smith, only recently entered the elite talent conversation.

It comes down to whom the Rams give the slight edge. After all, there isn’t much separating these two extremely talented football players.

-Aaron Curry (OLB/Wake Forest)

NFL.com

If the Rams decide to go with the best player available, Curry would be the right choice. Although St. Louis has more pressing needs, linebacker does need help. So don’t rule out Curry because you never know if the defense-oriented Spagnolo might make a move for Curry if the Lions don’t take him first.

Michael Crabtree is a possibility here, but I just don’t see new coach Steve Spagnolo advocating that decision so early in his tenure.

Next on the clock: Kansas City Chiefs

Make sure to vote so I can include the fan picks into each post. We can make a little game out of comparing the fan picks with my own! At the end of my completed mock draft I will show all the results.

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