Up until the draft, I’d like to spend some time breaking down the mock draft picks within the Draft community in the hope that it may stimulate some quality discussion (or at least some good thoughts).

As a part of the first segment I will start by looking at the various picks assigned to the teams drafting in the 1-2 range (starting with St. Louis).  I’ll express why I think an individual is a good or bad fit for a given team.

#1  St. Louis Rams

Possible choices: Sam Bradford

After he successfully answered the nagging questions about his health, Sam Bradford has become the consensus #1 overall pick. Ever since I released my first mock draft, I figured that things would play out this way.  The Rams are desperate for a young quarterback to lead this team, especially after just releasing Marc Bulger. I won’t rehash things too much, but Bradford is the best quarterback prospect in the Draft, and is a legitimate top 5 selection. On many levels, it makes little sense to choose one of the DT’s over the game’s most important position.

#2 Detroit Lions

Possible choices: Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

My friend at Lions In Winter, Ty Schalter artfully explained why each of these players would or would not fit into the Lions system.

Suffice it to say, the Russell Okung selection was a knee-jerk lashing out against the under-appreciated LT Jeff Backus. In actuality, the Lions real hole existed at LG. If you add in the fact that they just patched that hole up by trading for a capable starter in Rob Sims, the selection of Okung makes even less sense. I will concede that selecting Okung (or Trent Williams) would give the Lions their future LT  once Backus retires, and it gives them additional flexibility and depth. They could have insurance for Gosder Cherilus if he continues to slump at RT, but that is still an exorbitant sum of money to hand out to a RT.

It is well known that LT provides considerably more positional value than a DT. But pass rushers are very valuable. Period. Ndamukong is not a 2-down run-stuffer. He is every bit a 3-down pass-rushing, run-stopping defensive lineman, which raises his value. I would agree that Okung should be the pick IF all things were equal. We aren’t considering apples to apples here.

Ndamukong Suh is considered the far superior prospect, and I don’t say that to take anything away from Okung. It’s just that Suh is a fantastic prospect. When you pay a player $40+ million, you have a faint hope that this player can be really special. In my estimation, Suh has a higher chance of being that kind of player.

The important key to drafting in the top 5 picks, as Mike Mayock says, is “to control value.” I believe Suh is the better value. His talent outweighs Okung’s positional value advantage.

The other possible target of the Lions is Gerald McCoy. I happen to believe he is not quite as good a fit as Suh for the Lions defense if you look at the defenses that both defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and head coach Jim Schwartz have run in the past.

For example, McCoy is a perfect fit for the Tampa Two defense, which relies almost exclusively on it’s front four to generate pressure, and thrives with a gap penetrating 3-technique such as McCoy. The Lions too would rely mainly on their defensive front to generate  a pass rush, but they are also have more duties in the run game. Gunther Cunningham likes to show different looks, and a scheme diverse player like Suh will allow him to create some unique packages to confuse opposing offenses.

Even so, I can’t argue strongly against McCoy because he is such an exceptional player.  But I’d rather have Suh, if I were the Lions.

(1) St. Louis Rams

The days of Marc Bulger are numbered, and the franchise needs to add young talent at quarterback if they are serious about winning any time soon. And considering how the Rams have already used top 5 picks on DE and OT, the only justifiable position to take this early is a quarterback.

It is debatable who the best quarterback is, but St. Louis runs a version of the West Coast offense. For this reason, I would give a slight edge to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford over Washington’s Jake Locker. Bradford is blessed with superior leadership qualities, and supreme accuracy, two things that NFL teams covet out of their signal caller. Additionally, his experience operating out of the shotgun should not hurt him too much, since the Rams often utilize this formation themselves.

(2) Cleveland Browns

It has been widely publicized that Eric Mangini is not keen on quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. I don’t blame him one bit. The passer ratings of the two QB’s are 36.2 and 70.4 respectively.

Unfortunately, both of these players have contracts that may prevent Cleveland from upgrading the position.However, I do believe that Mangini will find a way to get an able-bodied QB to Cleveland in the form of Washington’s rocket armed Jake Locker. The Huskies signal caller is gifted with all the physical tools necessary to be a great NFL quarterback.

(3) Detroit Lions

Detroit has many needs, including a glaring hole at LT. But if I learned anything last year about how the Lions’ front office drafts, it is this: they draft purely on grade and not based on need. If they have the chance to add perhaps the best player in this class, then it’s a done deal. They sorely need help on the interior of the defense, and there is no better way of doing this than acquiring a dominant DT like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh.

After seeing the Vikings’ Kevin Williams shred the Lions’ offensive line by blowing up plays in the backfield, it seems that the Lions will be salivating at the ability to obtain such a similar talent in Suh.  His unique blend of athleticism, strength, and technique will make him a fearsome force- exactly the type of  player that Detroit has lacked for so long.

(B) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Depending on how Suh grades out, and whether he is still on the board when the Lions make their selection, Detroit’s contingency plan may be to select the other can’t miss defender available: Tennessee safety Eric Berry. His elite skill set could be too much for GM Martin Mayhew to overlook, especially considering

how the safety spot beside rookie Louis Delmas has been a revolving door in recent years. Players like Marquand Manuel and Kalvin Pearson aren’t cutting the mustard. So, a ball hawk roaming the weak Detroit secondary would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since Tampa doesn’t need a LT or QB right now, they are in position to take the best player available. Sabby Piscitelli isn’t scaring opponents, and Jermaine Phillips is a free agent after this season. If the Bucs couple a promising young safety with the talent already present at cornerback, they could have a frightening  secondary.

Eric Berry is a game breaking safety prospect that would aid the Bucs in both pass coverage and run support. Tampa hasn’t had an impact player at safety since John Lynch departed for Denver.

(B) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Soonersports.com

Tampa would undoubtedly love to add Ndamukong Suh to help fix the league’s worst run defense. But Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is one heck of a consolation prize if they decide to address the area of greatest need. The interior of the defensive line has been unable to get pressure, and they have been unable to hold their assigned gaps effectively. A gap penetrating tackle like McCoy is what Tampa had in Warren Sapp during their Super Bowl run.

(5) Oakland Raiders

Raiders’ owner Al Davis is a sucker for speed and athleticism. The failure of former 1st rounder Michael Huff can only bolster his interest in the super-freak known as Taylor Mays. His amazing athleticism for a 6′3, 235 lb safety is remarkable. And if he times as expected in the 40 yard dash at the Combine, then he becomes the obvious candidate here.

Grabbing Mays this early is not advisable, but we are talking about the owner who selected a punter in the 1st round way back when. Mays isn’t known for his coverage or ball skills, but he certainly can lay the wood and possesses the elite straight line speed that Davis covets.

(B) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

NFL.com

Although Mays is perhaps the player Davis “will” choose, the player he “should” choose is someone else entirely. Despite using three top 10 picks on offensive skill players in the last three years, Oakland is ranked last in the league in 1st downs and total yards per game. I am assuming that the Raiders will give JaMarcus Russell one last year to prove himself before letting him go. And the trend thus far has been to add weapons to aid his development. How about selecting an elite LT to protect the quarterback and give him time to throw the ball?

Russell Okung is a tremendous athlete with excellent length and footwork. He is a bit raw but the tools to be good are all there. ]]> http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/12/draft-scenarios-2/feed/ 1 http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/11/draft-scenarios/ http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/11/draft-scenarios/#comments Sat, 28 Nov 2009 01:48:37 +0000 David Maziasz http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/?p=3331 1. St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

The days of Marc Bulger are numbered, and the franchise needs to add young talent at quarterback if they are serious about winning any time soon. And considering how the Rams have already used top 5 picks on DE and OT, the only justifiable position to take this early is a quarterback.

It is debatable who the best quarterback is, but St. Louis runs a version of the West Coast offense. For this reason, I would give a slight edge to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford over Washington’s Jake Locker. Bradford is blessed with superior leadership qualities, and supreme accuracy, two things that NFL teams covet out of their signal caller. Additionally, his experience operating out of the shotgun should not hurt him too much, since the Rams often utilize this formation themselves.

2. Cleveland Browns

Jake Locker, QB, Washington

It has been widely publicized that Eric Mangini is not keen on quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. I don’t blame him one bit. The passer ratings of the two QB’s are 36.2 and 70.4 respectively. Unfortunately, both of these players have contracts that may prevent Cleveland from upgrading the position.

However, I do believe that Mangini will find a way to get an able-bodied QB to Cleveland in the form of Washington’s rocket armed Jake Locker. The Huskies signal caller is gifted with all the physical tools necessary to be a great NFL quarterback.

3. Detroit Lions

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Detroit has many needs, including a glaring hole at LT. But if I learned anything last year about how the Lions’ front office drafts, it is this: they draft purely on grade and not based on need. If they have the chance to add perhaps the best player in this class, then it’s a done deal. They sorely need help on the interior of the defense, and there is no better way of doing this than acquiring a dominant DT like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh.

After seeing the Vikings’ Kevin Williams shred the Lions’ offensive line by blowing up plays in the backfield, it seems that the Lions will be salivating at the ability to obtain such a similar talent in Suh.  His unique blend of athleticism, strength, and technique will make him a fearsome force- exactly the type of  player that Detroit has lacked for so long.

Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Depending on how Suh grades out, and whether he is still on the board when the Lions make their selection, Detroit’s contingency plan may be to select the other can’t miss defender available: Tennessee safety Eric Berry. His elite skill set could be too much for GM Martin Mayhew to overlook, especially considering how the safety spot beside rookie Louis Delmas has been a revolving door in recent years. Players like Marquand Manuel and Kalvin Pearson aren’t cutting the mustard. So, a ball hawk roaming the the weak Detroit secondary would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs

Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Since Tampa doesn’t need a LT or QB right now, they are in position to take the best player available. Sabby Piscitelli isn’t scaring opponents, and Jermaine Phillips is a free agent after this season. If the Bucs couple a promising young safety with the talent already present at cornerback, they could have a frightening  secondary.

Eric Berry is a game breaking safety prospect that would aid the Bucs in both pass coverage and run support. Tampa hasn’t had an impact player at safety since John Lynch departed for Denver.

Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Tampa would undoubtedly love to add Ndamukong Suh to help fix  the league’s worst run defense. But Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is one heck of a consolation prize if they decide to address the area of greatest need. The interior of the defensive line has been unable to get  pressure, and they have been unable to hold their assigned gaps effectively. A gap penetrating tackle like McCoy is what Tampa had in Warren Sapp during their Super Bowl run.

5. Oakland Raiders

Taylor Mays, S, Southern Cal

Raiders’ owner Al Davis is a sucker for speed and athleticism. The failure of former 1st rounder Michael Huff can only bolster his interest in the super-freak known as Taylor Mays. His amazing athleticism for a 6’3, 235 lb safety is remarkable. And if he times as expected in the 40 yard dash at the Combine, then he becomes the obvious candidate here.

Grabbing Mays this early is not advisable, but we are talking about the owner who selected a punter in the 1st round way back when. Mays isn’t known for his coverage or ball skills, but he certainly can lay the wood and possesses the elite straight line speed that Davis covets.

Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

Although Mays is perhaps the player Davis “will” choose, the player he “should” choose is someone else entirely. Despite using three top 10 picks on offensive skill players in the last three years, Oakland is ranked last in the league in 1st downs and total yards per game. I am assuming that the Raiders will give JaMarcus Russell one last year to prove himself before letting him go. And the trend thus far has been to add weapons to aid his development. How about selecting an elite LT to protect the quarterback and give him time to throw the ball?

Russell Okung is a tremendous athlete with excellent length and footwork. He is a bit raw but the tools to be good are all there.

Picks 6-10 coming soon!