Follow the link to find out who could be the top offensive tackle selected. It’s not who you think.

So feel free to check it out and let me know what me know what you think!

Click here to view David’s Draft Scenarios/Mock Draft

Related posts:

1. Mock Draft Updated
2. Mock Draft Landing Page

Last year I previewed 10 different players who I thought would have strong performances at the NFL Combine.  It was lots of fun doing that list, so I felt it would be good to carry on the tradition this year. But I want to go a step further, and will prognosticate 5 players who should underwhelm scouts this week.

On an administrative note, I should have another mock draft coming out soon. So, please check back again to see when it’s up.

Top 10 Players To Watch at NFL Combine

NFL Combine (NFL.com)

10) Chad Jones

At 6’3 and 230 pounds, the two-sport star for LSU is the unhyped equivalent of Taylor Mays. I expect him to have a very well balanced performance, impressing scouts with his strength, speed, and explosion.

9) Bruce Campbell

The most impressive offensive line specimen is certainly Bruce Campbell from Maryland. Measuring 6’7 and 310 pounds, Campbell will leave scouts talking about his physique, quick feet, and noteworthy strength on the bench press. With a solid performance, he will be able to distinguish himself as the best OT in the second tier (behind the big four) and a sure-fire 1st round pick.

8 ) Carlos Dunlap

Expected to run in the 4.6 range, Dunlap is as blessed physically(6’6/290 lbs) as any defensive end to come out in the last decade.  The only reason he isn’t ranked higher is that he could really struggle in interviews, which could kill any momentum he might gain in Indy.

7) Sergio Kindle

The Texas star is a fantastic athlete. He takes after his former teammate, Brian Orakpo, except that he is faster, but not as strong.  Don’t be surprised if he runs a low 4.5 40 yard dash.

6) Jason Pierre-Paul

barring a disaster Wonderlic test and interview (which could happen), Jason Pierre-Paul is the athlete on the edge that NFL teams demand. 6’6, 265 lbs, and super long arms will have the scouts salivating. He should run around a 4.6 40 yard dash, and will jump a very high vertical, but will struggle on the bench press because of his long arms.

5) Joe Haden

Basically the defensive version of Percy Harvin,  Joe Haden should post top marks in nearly every category. He is just a freakishly gifted corner. Look out for an especially strong performance in position drills.

4) Brandon Graham

Another Mike Barwis product, Graham has outstanding strength and explosion.  After his performance in Indy, teams will be comparing him to Dwight Freeney, who also dominated at the combine.  I predict 30+  bench reps, and Graham has said he wants to run in the 4.5 range.  His only obstacle might come in linebacker drills.

3) Taylor Mays

Probably the most hyped athlete/football player of the last couple years, Mays will shine in this venue. He will be a top performer in all but the agility drills.

2) Ndamukong Suh

Super strong man Suh will have fantastic interviews, in addition to his expected triumphs on the bench press and in agility drills.  Anything less than 35 reps will surprise me.

1) C.J. Spiller

No player should have more momentum going into the draft if Spiller runs the sub 4.3 40 time that some expect from him. After this week, he will be compared to the young Chris Johnson, who ran a blazing 4.24 two years ago.

Top 5 Players Who Will Underwhelm

5) Rolando McClain

Alabama prospects haven’t done well recently at the Combine.  McClain will have to answer questions about his strength, burst, and range.  A slow time in the 40 will silence talk of him going early in the 1st round.

4) Derrick Morgan

Productivity doesn’t mean a thing at the combine.  Morgan lacks burst, and could be just an average performer.

3) Jimmy Clausen

The weigh-in will make ore break Clausen’s draft chances.  If he measures around 6’1, instead of his listed 6’3, then he could fall  a lot in April.

2) Brandon Spikes

Despite being very strong, Spikes is expected to run around the 5.0 mark in the 40. I don’t need to tell you how much that can hurt his chances of being a 1st round pick.

1) Terrence Cody

After the shirtless fiasco in Mobile, Cody will have done nothing to the change the perception that his is a two-down player.  His long arms will hurt his bench press, and really the only way he could help himself is if he does all the drills to dismiss comparisons to his former teammate Andre Smith.

Take this invitation to post your predictions below. I would love to hear what you have to say!

Related posts:

1. 2010 NFL Combine Final Results
2. 2010 NFL Combine Recap: Saturday

Sports have become such a large industry in the U.S that we have several television channels, hundreds of magazines, newspaper sections, and Internet websites devoted solely to feeding the fire of information that the public so desperately craves. But have we allowed our appetite to become so large that we will read any worthless article regardless of it’s quality?

The Internet is stock full of useless information, and the NFL (draft) community is no different. Once a fun, yet educational tool, most mock drafts have become about as useless as wiping before you drop a log.

Making an accurate mock draft in April is already a daunting task. Conjuring up an accurate mock before the college or professional football season starts is an unimaginably difficult task for even the most football-savvy person.

For starters, there is no way of knowing the exact draft order until February, when the Superbowl is decided.  Until then, one can only guess the order by examining team schedules and trends. I am making a big deal about draft order because of how central it is to the Draft in the eyes of franchises. Owning the 1st pick versus the 2nd can be the difference between selecting Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

Furthermore, player analysis before the end of the college football season is based mainly around hype. The draft eligible players have not yet produced a full body of work. Players often only have about two seasons of experience as  starters before the leave college. As a talent evaluator, assessing a player based on one or two of their best college years is both unfair to the player and unwise on part of the evaluator. Especially in their younger years, consider how much difference a year can make in the development of a player. And what about those nasty injuries and off-the-field incidents that can ruin the hopes of these gifted athletes?

Premature evaluations occur all the time in these early mock drafts. I recall a very popular draft site by the name of Draftcountdown.com, which produced a mock draft early in the football season. The site owner, Scott Wright had South Carolina OT Jamon Meredith going in the first round, when in fact he ended up going in the fifth round this April.

If things were not complicated enough by having to evaluate players using limited information, early mock drafts have to project which Juniors are likely to declare for the draft once the season ends. Last season everyone predicted Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Mays, Jermaine Gresham, and others would be early entrants in the 2009 Draft. Imagine how much different a mock draft would look if these players were included. Mock drafts are so delicate that missing on one instance can drastically affect the rest of the simulation. If a mock draft includes five or ten ineligible players, the thing is nearly worthless.

To prove my point, take a look at one of the few early mock drafts that haven’t been “conveniently” erased from draft site archives. This particular one was created by Todd McShay of ESPN just after the 2008 draft:

McShay 2009 Mock Draft

A few things that stood out from the example.  Only ten of the thirty two players included in that mock actually were chosen in the first round; seven players did not enter the draft; two players ended up going in the 7th round; and the number one overall pick, Fili Moala actually was drafted in the 2nd round. No surprise that McShay didn’t correctly line up the player, team, and draft number in even one instance.

Not to throw dirt on an open wound, but those issues only relate to the college portion of draft evaluation. The other side of the equation deals with the goings on in the NFL: team needs and free agency. And how can even the most astute evaluator predict team needs before new additions to the team have had a chance to show their quality?

Subsequently, this extremely important ingredient in the mock draft is laughably overlooked. Mock drafters pretty much look at the remaining team needs that were not addressed during the draft or free agency. For example, if defensive end wasn’t filled via either of those methods, the mock drafter will place that as the highest priority for the next season. There is some credence to this methodology, but it is incomplete. For it fails to account any holes that may develop over the course of the season.  Team needs are constantly changing, and ranking them in order of urgency is a very complicated process.

Because mock drafting is an extremely difficult even a week before the Draft, why would anyone bother to spend time creating such a load of rubbish?

My best answer to that question reiterates what I said earlier. The bombardment of sports information has dulled our desire for quality. That desire has been usurped by a craving for quantity of information, no matter how worthless it is.

Please, do yourself a favor, don’t spend too much time reading mock drafts made at this time of year unless you’re only seeking a good laugh.

It makes you wonder, what has become the motivation behind mock drafts? Is it still the noble goal of educating the reader, or has it become yet another way to pass the time?

Related posts:

1. Mock Draft Results
2. Who Goes Where?

About two days ago, I was perusing one of my favorite sites (MgoBlog) to find some good tidbits for an upcoming article when I came across the site’s forum, which is just like any other forum in that it is full of impassioned speculation on the part of the contributors. Go patrol a football forum, and it won’t be longer than a few minutes before you stumble upon a thread that looks something like this:  “player “x” a first round pick?”

The thread creator will make a short argument for the player, and then other members will sound off in agreement.  Others (A.K.A the trolls/grouches) will slam everything that doesn’t reinforce their own opinions. And a few well-informed members will inject some logic back into the conversation, which by now has turned into a screaming match between the “trolls” and the supporters.

This type of talk got me thinking about how little information exists on the Internet regarding the criteria teams use to determine what round a player will be drafted. This lack of information amongst the masses leads to errant guesses about where player “x” will be drafted.

And traditionally at this time of year, fans will be guessing about when their favorite players will be drafted more than Paris Hilton on Jeopardy.

So in the interest of making you more educated on all things NFL Draft, here are some basic truths (though far from exhaustive) that should come in handy when curiosity takes hold and you put your two bits in on a forum.

Here are five things that separate the men (early round draft choices) from the boys (late rounders):

• Early rounders have the three P’s- Physique, potential, and production.  The earlier the pick, the closer the player is to the ideal in each of these categories.  These guys have the prototypical size (which will be covered on a later date), their potential for growing into impact players must be high, and their ability to translate their physical gifts (measurables) and potential into tangible results has to be visible in their college production.
• Early rounders (especially 1st rounders)  are expected to be ready to start in their rookie season. Ask yourself, is player “x” polished enough to beat out some veterans? Outside of WR and QB, DE, and 3-4 defensive OLB, most players should be ready to contribute day 1.
• The earlier a player is chosen, the readier they are to get on the field. Players taken in later rounds are expected to take considerable time before making an impact (if they ever are able to do so).
• Contrary to what I used to think, players available in the late rounds (5-7) are still quality athletes. They might just lack one or two of the 3 P’s. In other words, these players appear to be one-dimensional. For instance, linebackers like 7th rounder Zach Follett are thought to be either special teamers or two-down run stuffers. They lack the versatility of every-down players.
• Last of all, early rounders (1st rounders) are the flashiest, most hyped players in any draft. That is why I actually like the 2nd round players more. The 2nd rounders are usually very productive college players, have good measurables, provide great money value, and are just solid football players without the hype.

Note: None of these anecdotes are hard and fast rules, but rather general truths.

Related posts:

1. Before They Were NFL Stars
2. The Worth of Preseason Mock Drafts

Matt Millen: Lions’ Bane

(View Millen Blueprints here)

In Detroit, the people love their sports. Star athletes like Barry Sanders and Isiah Thomas were and still are treated like kings. Few cities sport such a rich history and such a loyal fan base quite like Detroit (and Michigan as a whole).

If sports are so important in Detroit, you can only imagine how strongly the fans dislike Matt Millen: the one who built the worst performing product in NFL history. He unintentionally brought great shame upon an already suffering city.

The former Oakland Raiders, Redskins, and 49ers linebacker with four Super Bowls rings was asked by the Detroit Lions on a fateful day in 2001 to come on as President and CEO of the team. Beloved by the media as a brilliant commentator and TV analyst, Millen was at the time seen as a popular pick to help restore the roar to the city of Detroit, even though he had no prior front-office experience.

However, the next 7 years were not at all what anyone had expected from this football man.

Under his leadership, the Lions went 31-84, and completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history.  I had to sit and watch from afar as my beloved state of Michigan went through the national ridicule that can only be had by failing to win even a single game.

Millen’s failures in the Draft have become stuff of legend.  First round failures such as Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Joey Harrington turned a relatively decent team (in the 1990′s) into the laughing stock of the NFL.

Every football fan is aware that Millen had such an affinity for skill position players, such as wide receiver, that he wound up using four top 15 picks on that position alone.

Not only did Millen “strike out” on some picks, but he retired the side (to use a baseball term). Charles Rogers had severe character issues that resulted in him being arrested multiple times on drug-related charges. Mike Williams almost never saw the playing field partially because of some college issues related to his eligibility, and also because of injuries and a reported lack of effort.

But aside from his obvious mistakes, this is where studying Millen gets very interesting. At a glance, you may notice some very strange things about his draft history (found in his Draft Blueprints).

For the record, this article is not an attempt to justify his actions. But many of the complaints about him are unfounded and unfair. So I want to take a moment to analyze some ill-informed statements by the general public.

One of the main criticisms of Matt Millen by the Detroit faithful has been that he used too many picks on the offensive side of the ball. We were all clamoring for more defense.

I would be the first to confess being in this camp. In fact, it wasn’t until I had a lengthy conversation with Ty, author of The Lions In Winter blog, that I realized some startling observations about Millen’s drafts. Just after Martin Mayhew was hired as the Millen’s replacement, I became very excited to hear that there would be a renewed focus on the interior of the offense and defense; something I had convinced myself that Millen had wholely ignored.

If you thought the same, you’d be dead wrong.

I wasn’t alone when I said to myself prior to this year’s draft, we need to build through the trenches.  “Draft a lineman with that first pick.”  Lions’ beat writer for Mlive, Tom “Killer” Kowalski was clamoring the same thing. ‘Let’s do something Millen never did-draft some quality linemen to start off the new regime!’

Such selective memories we have, right?

I had blocked out the fact that Millen began by drafting LT Jeff Backus and C Dominic Raiola with his first two picks as head of the Lions.

Imagine my surprise to find out that Millen used exactly 30 picks on offense and 32 picks on defensive players.

Okay, so maybe Millen used about an equal number of picks on offense and defense. Perhaps he chose defensive players in the late rounds, and offense mainly in the early rounds.

Nope, that wasn’t the case either. Of his first day draft selections (rounds one and two), precisely ten players were chosen on each side of the ball.

Finally, Millen seemed to have followed conventional wisdom by selecting a balanced number of players on defense and offense, which has been a relatively common occurrence among the best drafters. His Draft Blueprints look very similar to those of the great evaluators.

I had a theory that his drafts would look structurally different on the most basic level (as shown in the Draft Blueprints). But his failures in the draft are more subtle.

A most disconcerting thought, perhaps Millen did many things right, but had the worst string of ill-fortune in the history of football.

A note of optimism for Lions fans: new GM Martin Mayhew really may have learned what not to do, by watching Matt Millen work. It seems he didn’t repeat Millen’s mistakes this draft when he chose an infusion of talent over need.  Maybe there is hope in Detroit after all!

Also, I think that analyzing the Draft Blueprints is a useful exercise, but it is rather incomplete. Therefore, I will be taking this study a step further by looking at the number of quality starters drafted by good and bad evaluators. Hopefully, that exercise will shed some light on why Millen’s drafts look so structurally similar to those of excellent talent evaluators like Bill Belichick and Bill Walsh.

An administrative note, if you want to learn more about how the Lions got into such a mess, then please check out Detroit Lions Fan 1979′s blog. He is writing a series of articles that compliment this Millen study nicely.

Related posts:

1. Steelers & Ravens Draft Blueprints
2. Bill Walsh Draft Blueprints

Getting Defensive: Kevin Colbert & Ozzie Newsome

(View Steelers & Ravens Draft Blueprints history here)

Despite their short-lived animosity, the perennial feud between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens has grown into one of the NFL’s premier rivalry matches because of the similar philosophies and strategies of the two teams. Separated by a mere 200 miles, the two defensive juggernauts have written the book on how to play defensive football.

Sports Illustrated wrote a fantastic piece on these two teams, revealing some incredible statistics:

Over the past 10 years the Ravens…and Steelers rank one and two in the NFL, respectively in total defense.

Below that, a chart displaying all the defensive categories shows the two teams own the top two spots in nearly every one of 16 defensive categories, including yards allowed per game, points per game, rushing defense, and passing defense.

Needless to say, such high praise intrigued me enough to create a Draft Blueprint for the current GM’s for Pittsburgh and Baltimore (you can find the Excel attachment at the top of this page).

But this I can say, his teams have fared extraordinarily well because of the talent he brings in on a early basis.  His most notable draft acquisitions include Lamarr Woodley, Casey Hampton, Plaxico Burress, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Ike Taylor, and Santonio Holmes. All but one of those players (Burress) can still be found on the roster.

As for Baltimore, GM Ozzie Newsome has been working in the front-office since the Ravens entered the league in 1996. He joined the team as a player personnel executive, and was promoted to GM in 2002. Since he had such an influence in draft decisions as personnel decisions, his tenure at that position is included in this report.

In the same SI article mentioned above, it states how Mr. Newsome used “10 of his first 14 picks on defensive players.”  He overloaded the defensive side of the ball with talent, and he was rewarded many times over with the 2000 Raven defense that ranks among the best of all-time.

Some of his notable players are Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Adalius Thomas, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.

I absolutely love watching the Ravens and Steelers play football. I think they play the game the way it should be played: physically, passionately, and with some ingenuity. If you feel the same way as I do, then we both have Kevin Colbert and Ozzie Newsome to thank for enriching the game that is so near and dear to us.

This concludes the Draft Blueprints coverage of the best teams in the NFL. Next post will examine an example of poor draft behavior, as demonstrated by the former Detroit Lions’ GM Matt Millen.

Related posts:

1. Mock Draft (Baltimore Ravens)
2. Ted Thompson Draft Blueprints

(View A.J. Smith Draft Blueprints here)

Over the past five years, we have known the San Diego Chargers to be an annual playoff contender. But they have most definitely not been that way for long.

In 2004, the Chargers had an ownership change, which led to the promotion of one of the scouting department executives to the prestigious GM position.  A.J. Smith was handed that position and immediately began to place his stamp on the organization in the pivotal ’04 Draft, where he managed to trade the number one overall pick (Eli Manning) to get Philip Rivers and several other draft picks for the future.

Since that time, MR. Smith has acquired high-caliber players such as Shawne Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, Marcus McNeil, Michael Turner, Shaun Phillips, and Eric Weddle.

For a former scout, it comes as no surprise to discover that Smith has built this team around the draft. Last I heard, somewhere around 20 of the team’s starters have come via the draft.
With that squad, San Diego has made a couple of runs deep into the playoffs. But they haven’t reached the championship yet. Who knows when they will go all the way?

Related posts:

1. Bill Walsh Draft Blueprints
2. Mock Draft 1.0 (San Diego Chargers)

(View Thompson Draft Blueprints here)

Green Bay Packers’ GM Ted Thompson has long been a stout champion of drafting best player available (BPA), regardless of need. To some people, this philosophy makes little sense. But considering how the draft is a crapshoot, you’re much less likely to get caught with your pants down that way.

Case in point being Thompson’s draft behavior in 2008. He drafted wide receiver Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round, even though Green Bay had one of the most potent receiving tandems in the league. Furthermore, Thompson selected two more quarterbacks when Aaron Rodgers  (and technically, Brett Favre too) was on the roster.

Some of the more notable picks made since Thompson’s arrival are A.J. Hawk (OLB), Aaron Rodgers (QB), Greg Jennings (WR), and Nick Collins (FS). Interestingly, some of the team’s most successful players have been a result of Thompson’s excellent eye for talent in the later rounds of the draft.

But before I make this man out as being infallible, I must say, for every success, there’s been a bust. And I know that any Packers fan will be quick to remind me how much a failure former 1st round DT Justin Harrell has been. Under the Ted Thompson regime, Harrell has been perhaps the largest whiff by the front-office.

Characteristic of any value-driven GM, Thompson has become famous for being active on draft day, trading down to gain additional picks.

Despite his good track record, Thompson’s habits come across as arrogant and sometimes stupid. I have talked with several Packers fans who are less than happy with the way the Packers draft. But somehow, big Ted puts together a quality team that was a hop, skip, and a jump from the Super bowl 2 years ago.

And finally, the reason he makes this list is for his emphasis on building the team through the draft, which inevitably means that the vast majority of the squad came through this method.

Related posts:

1. Mock Draft 1.0 (Green Bay Packers)
2. Steelers & Ravens Draft Blueprints

Secrets of a Belichick Draft

(View Belichick Draft Blueprints here)

The salary cap era of professional football has produced no finer mastermind than New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. While owners such as Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys have struggled mightily under the financial restrictions of salary caps, Belichick seems to adapt and grow the Patriots’ rule over the NFL, which is the closest thing to a dynasty since the Cowboys of the 1990′s.

Since his inception in 2000, Belichick has coached the Patriots to three Superbowl championships, and four appearances. His 2007 team became the first team to go without a regular season loss since the days of Dan Marino.

Despite the kind of success that merits consideration as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest coach of all-time, his name invokes strong emotional reactions among the masses because of his oft misunderstood personality, and for his scandalous Spygate incident.

However much you may love or loathe him, there is no denying his ability to mold raw talent into a highly competitive team.

Related posts:

1. Bill Parcells Draft Blueprints
2. Bill Walsh Draft Blueprints

Please click here (Bill Walsh Draft Blueprints) to view the attachment of the complete study on Walsh’s draft history.

Few coaches can boast that they invented the offense that they run. San Francisco 49ers coach Bill Walsh could claim such high praise. During his tenure in the Golden State, he  invented the West Coast offensive scheme, winning three Superbowls on his way to the Hall of Fame.

I want to note Walsh’s supreme understanding of the intricacies of the NFL Draft. This knowledge allowed him to produce some of the richest draft classes in history. His most noteworthy draft came in 1986, a pivotal year in the franchise.  In that year, Walsh desperately needed to replenish his roster, and replenish the roster he did, indeed.  By masterfully trading for additional picks, Walsh ended up with 13 draft selections, and made all of them count. The players acquired that year allowed San Francisco to maintain league dominance for many more years. For this reason, the 49ers’ 1986 draft will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

CBSsports.com and NFL.com provided the raw data for this study.

Related posts:

1. Bill Parcells Draft Blueprints
2. Bill Belichick Draft Blueprints