Posts Tagged ‘NFL Draft Blog’
Long overdue, I updated my Draft scenarios Mock Draft.
Although there is no change at the top of the draft, there are some surprises including a top player getting pushed out of the top 10.
So feel free to check it out and let me know what me know what you think!
Click here to view David’s Draft Scenarios/Mock Draft
Also, make sure to watch the Combine coverage, which starts tomorrow at 9 AM eastern time. Watch it live for free on NFL.com.
With Draft season in full gear, we now enter the highly anticipated NFL Combine, which every Draft nut loves!
Last year I previewed 10 different players who I thought would have strong performances at the NFL Combine. It was lots of fun doing that list, so I felt it would be good to carry on the tradition this year. But I want to go a step further, and will prognosticate 5 players who should underwhelm scouts this week.
On an administrative note, I should have another mock draft coming out soon. So, please check back again to see when it’s up.
Top 10 Players To Watch at NFL Combine
- NFL Combine (NFL.com)
10) Chad Jones
At 6′3 and 230 pounds, the two-sport star for LSU is the unhyped equivalent of Taylor Mays. I expect him to have a very well balanced performance, impressing scouts with his strength, speed, and explosion.
9) Bruce Campbell
The most impressive offensive line specimen is certainly Bruce Campbell from Maryland. Measuring 6′7 and 310 pounds, Campbell will leave scouts talking about his physique, quick feet, and noteworthy strength on the bench press. With a solid performance, he will be able to distinguish himself as the best OT in the second tier (behind the big four) and a sure-fire 1st round pick.
8 ) Carlos Dunlap
Expected to run in the 4.6 range, Dunlap is as blessed physically(6′6/290 lbs) as any defensive end to come out in the last decade. The only reason he isn’t ranked higher is that he could really struggle in interviews, which could kill any momentum he might gain in Indy.
7) Sergio Kindle
The Texas star is a fantastic athlete. He takes after his former teammate, Brian Orakpo, except that he is faster, but not as strong. Don’t be surprised if he runs a low 4.5 40 yard dash.
6) Jason Pierre-Paul
barring a disaster Wonderlic test and interview (which could happen), Jason Pierre-Paul is the athlete on the edge that NFL teams demand. 6′6, 265 lbs, and super long arms will have the scouts salivating. He should run around a 4.6 40 yard dash, and will jump a very high vertical, but will struggle on the bench press because of his long arms.
5) Joe Haden
Basically the defensive version of Percy Harvin, Joe Haden should post top marks in nearly every category. He is just a freakishly gifted corner. Look out for an especially strong performance in position drills.
4) Brandon Graham
Another Mike Barwis product, Graham has outstanding strength and explosion. After his performance in Indy, teams will be comparing him to Dwight Freeney, who also dominated at the combine. I predict 30+ bench reps, and Graham has said he wants to run in the 4.5 range. His only obstacle might come in linebacker drills.
3) Taylor Mays
Probably the most hyped athlete/football player of the last couple years, Mays will shine in this venue. He will be a top performer in all but the agility drills.
2) Ndamukong Suh
Super strong man Suh will have fantastic interviews, in addition to his expected triumphs on the bench press and in agility drills. Anything less than 35 reps will surprise me.
1) C.J. Spiller
No player should have more momentum going into the draft if Spiller runs the sub 4.3 40 time that some expect from him. After this week, he will be compared to the young Chris Johnson, who ran a blazing 4.24 two years ago.
Top 5 Players Who Will Underwhelm
5) Rolando McClain
Alabama prospects haven’t done well recently at the Combine. McClain will have to answer questions about his strength, burst, and range. A slow time in the 40 will silence talk of him going early in the 1st round.
4) Derrick Morgan
Productivity doesn’t mean a thing at the combine. Morgan lacks burst, and could be just an average performer.
3) Jimmy Clausen
The weigh-in will make ore break Clausen’s draft chances. If he measures around 6′1, instead of his listed 6′3, then he could fall a lot in April.
2) Brandon Spikes
Despite being very strong, Spikes is expected to run around the 5.0 mark in the 40. I don’t need to tell you how much that can hurt his chances of being a 1st round pick.
1) Terrence Cody
After the shirtless fiasco in Mobile, Cody will have done nothing to the change the perception that his is a two-down player. His long arms will hurt his bench press, and really the only way he could help himself is if he does all the drills to dismiss comparisons to his former teammate Andre Smith.
Take this invitation to post your predictions below. I would love to hear what you have to say!
What’s the Point?
Sports have become such a large industry in the U.S that we have several television channels, hundreds of magazines, newspaper sections, and Internet websites devoted solely to feeding the fire of information that the public so desperately craves. But have we allowed our appetite to become so large that we will read any worthless article regardless of it’s quality?
The Internet is stock full of useless information, and the NFL (draft) community is no different. Once a fun, yet educational tool, most mock drafts have become about as useless as wiping before you drop a log.
Making an accurate mock draft in April is already a daunting task. Conjuring up an accurate mock before the college or professional football season starts is an unimaginably difficult task for even the most football-savvy person.
For starters, there is no way of knowing the exact draft order until February, when the Superbowl is decided. Until then, one can only guess the order by examining team schedules and trends. I am making a big deal about draft order because of how central it is to the Draft in the eyes of franchises. Owning the 1st pick versus the 2nd can be the difference between selecting Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.
Furthermore, player analysis before the end of the college football season is based mainly around hype. The draft eligible players have not yet produced a full body of work. Players often only have about two seasons of experience as starters before the leave college. As a talent evaluator, assessing a player based on one or two of their best college years is both unfair to the player and unwise on part of the evaluator. Especially in their younger years, consider how much difference a year can make in the development of a player. And what about those nasty injuries and off-the-field incidents that can ruin the hopes of these gifted athletes?
Premature evaluations occur all the time in these early mock drafts. I recall a very popular draft site by the name of Draftcountdown.com, which produced a mock draft early in the football season. The site owner, Scott Wright had South Carolina OT Jamon Meredith going in the first round, when in fact he ended up going in the fifth round this April.
If things were not complicated enough by having to evaluate players using limited information, early mock drafts have to project which Juniors are likely to declare for the draft once the season ends. Last season everyone predicted Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Mays, Jermaine Gresham, and others would be early entrants in the 2009 Draft. Imagine how much different a mock draft would look if these players were included. Mock drafts are so delicate that missing on one instance can drastically affect the rest of the simulation. If a mock draft includes five or ten ineligible players, the thing is nearly worthless.
To prove my point, take a look at one of the few early mock drafts that haven’t been “conveniently” erased from draft site archives. This particular one was created by Todd McShay of ESPN just after the 2008 draft:
A few things that stood out from the example. Only ten of the thirty two players included in that mock actually were chosen in the first round; seven players did not enter the draft; two players ended up going in the 7th round; and the number one overall pick, Fili Moala actually was drafted in the 2nd round. No surprise that McShay didn’t correctly line up the player, team, and draft number in even one instance.
Not to throw dirt on an open wound, but those issues only relate to the college portion of draft evaluation. The other side of the equation deals with the goings on in the NFL: team needs and free agency. And how can even the most astute evaluator predict team needs before new additions to the team have had a chance to show their quality?
Subsequently, this extremely important ingredient in the mock draft is laughably overlooked. Mock drafters pretty much look at the remaining team needs that were not addressed during the draft or free agency. For example, if defensive end wasn’t filled via either of those methods, the mock drafter will place that as the highest priority for the next season. There is some credence to this methodology, but it is incomplete. For it fails to account any holes that may develop over the course of the season. Team needs are constantly changing, and ranking them in order of urgency is a very complicated process.
Because mock drafting is an extremely difficult even a week before the Draft, why would anyone bother to spend time creating such a load of rubbish?
My best answer to that question reiterates what I said earlier. The bombardment of sports information has dulled our desire for quality. That desire has been usurped by a craving for quantity of information, no matter how worthless it is.
Please, do yourself a favor, don’t spend too much time reading mock drafts made at this time of year unless you’re only seeking a good laugh.
It makes you wonder, what has become the motivation behind mock drafts? Is it still the noble goal of educating the reader, or has it become yet another way to pass the time?
What Separates the Men from the Boys
About two days ago, I was perusing one of my favorite sites (MgoBlog) to find some good tidbits for an upcoming article when I came across the site’s forum, which is just like any other forum in that it is full of impassioned speculation on the part of the contributors. Go patrol a football forum, and it won’t be longer than a few minutes before you stumble upon a thread that looks something like this: “player “x” a first round pick?”
The thread creator will make a short argument for the player, and then other members will sound off in agreement. Others (A.K.A the trolls/grouches) will slam everything that doesn’t reinforce their own opinions. And a few well-informed members will inject some logic back into the conversation, which by now has turned into a screaming match between the “trolls” and the supporters.
This type of talk got me thinking about how little information exists on the Internet regarding the criteria teams use to determine what round a player will be drafted. This lack of information amongst the masses leads to errant guesses about where player “x” will be drafted.
And traditionally at this time of year, fans will be guessing about when their favorite players will be drafted more than Paris Hilton on Jeopardy.
So in the interest of making you more educated on all things NFL Draft, here are some basic truths (though far from exhaustive) that should come in handy when curiosity takes hold and you put your two bits in on a forum.
Here are five things that separate the men (early round draft choices) from the boys (late rounders):
- Early rounders have the three P’s- Physique, potential, and production. The earlier the pick, the closer the player is to the ideal in each of these categories. These guys have the prototypical size (which will be covered on a later date), their potential for growing into impact players must be high, and their ability to translate their physical gifts (measurables) and potential into tangible results has to be visible in their college production.
- Early rounders (especially 1st rounders) are expected to be ready to start in their rookie season. Ask yourself, is player “x” polished enough to beat out some veterans? Outside of WR and QB, DE, and 3-4 defensive OLB, most players should be ready to contribute day 1.
- The earlier a player is chosen, the readier they are to get on the field. Players taken in later rounds are expected to take considerable time before making an impact (if they ever are able to do so).
- Contrary to what I used to think, players available in the late rounds (5-7) are still quality athletes. They might just lack one or two of the 3 P’s. In other words, these players appear to be one-dimensional. For instance, linebackers like 7th rounder Zach Follett are thought to be either special teamers or two-down run stuffers. They lack the versatility of every-down players.
- Last of all, early rounders (1st rounders) are the flashiest, most hyped players in any draft. That is why I actually like the 2nd round players more. The 2nd rounders are usually very productive college players, have good measurables, provide great money value, and are just solid football players without the hype.
Note: None of these anecdotes are hard and fast rules, but rather general truths.
