Don’t forget to watch at 8 PM ET on NFL.com, NFL Network, or ESPN.

2011 NFL Mock Draft (Final Edition)

1. CAR-Marcell Dareus

2. DEN-Patrick Peterson

3. BUF-Blaine Gabbert

4. CIN-A.J. Green

5. ARI-Von Miller

6. CLE-Robert Quinn

7. SF-Prince Amukamara

8. TEN-Nick Fairley

9. DAL-J.J. Watt

10. WAS-Cameron Newton

11. HOU-Julio Jones

12. MIN-Da’Quan Bowers

13. DET-Aldon Smith

14. STL- Cameron Jordan

15. MIA- Mark Ingram

16. JAC- Ryan Kerrigan

17. NE- Mike Pouncey

18. SD-Tyron Smith

19. NYG-Anthony Castonzo

20. TB- Nate Solder

21. KC- Phil Taylor

22. IND- Corey Liuget

23. PHI- Gabe Carimi

24. NO-Adrian Clayborn

25. SEA-Jake Lockers

26. BAL- Jimmy Smith

27. ATL-Kyle Rudolph

28. NE-Derek Sherrod

29. CHI- Marvin Austin

30. NYJ- Akeem Ayers

31. PIT-Aaron Williams

32. GB- Danny Watkins

Picks 6-10 coming soon!

(Updated 12/7)

Excluded from this list is the mock of Mike Mayock because I couldn’t find his final predictions (if anyone has that info, I would love to add it in).

Name	# of Correct Picks
Pro Football Weekly (Nolan Nawrocki)	10
**NFL Draft Blogger** (David Maziasz)	8
Sports Illustrated (Peter King)	8
Move The Sticks (Daniel Jeremiah)	6
NFL Draft Scout (Chad Reuter)	6
ESPN (Mel Kiper)	6
ESPN (Todd McShay)	5
Scout.com (Chris Steuber)	5
Walter Football (Matt McGuire)	5
NFL Draft Countdown (Scott Wright)	4

For simplicity, the results are based on number of selections which correctly predicted the player, team, and position.

Also, thanks to GhostWriter for sending me the results for Kiper and McShay.

Congratulations to all the mock drafters here. But especially Mr. Nawrocki, who produced the most accurate mock draft I could find. Every year, his predictions are very well-documented, and are an outstanding read for any draft fan.

I am also very pleased with how my mock fared as well. This year’s product appears to be among the most accurate of any mock draft found on the internet. I am just super excited that all my hard work paid off

Follow the link to find out who could be the top offensive tackle selected. It’s not who you think.

So feel free to check it out and let me know what me know what you think!

Click here to view David’s Draft Scenarios/Mock Draft

Up until the draft, I’d like to spend some time breaking down the mock draft picks within the Draft community in the hope that it may stimulate some quality discussion (or at least some good thoughts).

As a part of the first segment I will start by looking at the various picks assigned to the teams drafting in the 1-2 range (starting with St. Louis).  I’ll express why I think an individual is a good or bad fit for a given team.

#1  St. Louis Rams

Possible choices: Sam Bradford

After he successfully answered the nagging questions about his health, Sam Bradford has become the consensus #1 overall pick. Ever since I released my first mock draft, I figured that things would play out this way.  The Rams are desperate for a young quarterback to lead this team, especially after just releasing Marc Bulger. I won’t rehash things too much, but Bradford is the best quarterback prospect in the Draft, and is a legitimate top 5 selection. On many levels, it makes little sense to choose one of the DT’s over the game’s most important position.

#2 Detroit Lions

Possible choices: Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

My friend at Lions In Winter, Ty Schalter artfully explained why each of these players would or would not fit into the Lions system.

Suffice it to say, the Russell Okung selection was a knee-jerk lashing out against the under-appreciated LT Jeff Backus. In actuality, the Lions real hole existed at LG. If you add in the fact that they just patched that hole up by trading for a capable starter in Rob Sims, the selection of Okung makes even less sense. I will concede that selecting Okung (or Trent Williams) would give the Lions their future LT  once Backus retires, and it gives them additional flexibility and depth. They could have insurance for Gosder Cherilus if he continues to slump at RT, but that is still an exorbitant sum of money to hand out to a RT.

It is well known that LT provides considerably more positional value than a DT. But pass rushers are very valuable. Period. Ndamukong is not a 2-down run-stuffer. He is every bit a 3-down pass-rushing, run-stopping defensive lineman, which raises his value. I would agree that Okung should be the pick IF all things were equal. We aren’t considering apples to apples here.

Ndamukong Suh is considered the far superior prospect, and I don’t say that to take anything away from Okung. It’s just that Suh is a fantastic prospect. When you pay a player $40+ million, you have a faint hope that this player can be really special. In my estimation, Suh has a higher chance of being that kind of player.

The important key to drafting in the top 5 picks, as Mike Mayock says, is “to control value.” I believe Suh is the better value. His talent outweighs Okung’s positional value advantage.

The other possible target of the Lions is Gerald McCoy. I happen to believe he is not quite as good a fit as Suh for the Lions defense if you look at the defenses that both defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and head coach Jim Schwartz have run in the past.

For example, McCoy is a perfect fit for the Tampa Two defense, which relies almost exclusively on it’s front four to generate pressure, and thrives with a gap penetrating 3-technique such as McCoy. The Lions too would rely mainly on their defensive front to generate  a pass rush, but they are also have more duties in the run game. Gunther Cunningham likes to show different looks, and a scheme diverse player like Suh will allow him to create some unique packages to confuse opposing offenses.

Even so, I can’t argue strongly against McCoy because he is such an exceptional player.  But I’d rather have Suh, if I were the Lions.

(1) St. Louis Rams

The days of Marc Bulger are numbered, and the franchise needs to add young talent at quarterback if they are serious about winning any time soon. And considering how the Rams have already used top 5 picks on DE and OT, the only justifiable position to take this early is a quarterback.

It is debatable who the best quarterback is, but St. Louis runs a version of the West Coast offense. For this reason, I would give a slight edge to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford over Washington’s Jake Locker. Bradford is blessed with superior leadership qualities, and supreme accuracy, two things that NFL teams covet out of their signal caller. Additionally, his experience operating out of the shotgun should not hurt him too much, since the Rams often utilize this formation themselves.

(2) Cleveland Browns

It has been widely publicized that Eric Mangini is not keen on quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. I don’t blame him one bit. The passer ratings of the two QB’s are 36.2 and 70.4 respectively.

Unfortunately, both of these players have contracts that may prevent Cleveland from upgrading the position.However, I do believe that Mangini will find a way to get an able-bodied QB to Cleveland in the form of Washington’s rocket armed Jake Locker. The Huskies signal caller is gifted with all the physical tools necessary to be a great NFL quarterback.

(3) Detroit Lions

Detroit has many needs, including a glaring hole at LT. But if I learned anything last year about how the Lions’ front office drafts, it is this: they draft purely on grade and not based on need. If they have the chance to add perhaps the best player in this class, then it’s a done deal. They sorely need help on the interior of the defense, and there is no better way of doing this than acquiring a dominant DT like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh.

After seeing the Vikings’ Kevin Williams shred the Lions’ offensive line by blowing up plays in the backfield, it seems that the Lions will be salivating at the ability to obtain such a similar talent in Suh.  His unique blend of athleticism, strength, and technique will make him a fearsome force- exactly the type of  player that Detroit has lacked for so long.

(B) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Depending on how Suh grades out, and whether he is still on the board when the Lions make their selection, Detroit’s contingency plan may be to select the other can’t miss defender available: Tennessee safety Eric Berry. His elite skill set could be too much for GM Martin Mayhew to overlook, especially considering

how the safety spot beside rookie Louis Delmas has been a revolving door in recent years. Players like Marquand Manuel and Kalvin Pearson aren’t cutting the mustard. So, a ball hawk roaming the weak Detroit secondary would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since Tampa doesn’t need a LT or QB right now, they are in position to take the best player available. Sabby Piscitelli isn’t scaring opponents, and Jermaine Phillips is a free agent after this season. If the Bucs couple a promising young safety with the talent already present at cornerback, they could have a frightening  secondary.

Eric Berry is a game breaking safety prospect that would aid the Bucs in both pass coverage and run support. Tampa hasn’t had an impact player at safety since John Lynch departed for Denver.

(B) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Soonersports.com

Tampa would undoubtedly love to add Ndamukong Suh to help fix the league’s worst run defense. But Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is one heck of a consolation prize if they decide to address the area of greatest need. The interior of the defensive line has been unable to get pressure, and they have been unable to hold their assigned gaps effectively. A gap penetrating tackle like McCoy is what Tampa had in Warren Sapp during their Super Bowl run.

(5) Oakland Raiders

Raiders’ owner Al Davis is a sucker for speed and athleticism. The failure of former 1st rounder Michael Huff can only bolster his interest in the super-freak known as Taylor Mays. His amazing athleticism for a 6′3, 235 lb safety is remarkable. And if he times as expected in the 40 yard dash at the Combine, then he becomes the obvious candidate here.

Grabbing Mays this early is not advisable, but we are talking about the owner who selected a punter in the 1st round way back when. Mays isn’t known for his coverage or ball skills, but he certainly can lay the wood and possesses the elite straight line speed that Davis covets.

(B) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

NFL.com

Although Mays is perhaps the player Davis “will” choose, the player he “should” choose is someone else entirely. Despite using three top 10 picks on offensive skill players in the last three years, Oakland is ranked last in the league in 1st downs and total yards per game. I am assuming that the Raiders will give JaMarcus Russell one last year to prove himself before letting him go. And the trend thus far has been to add weapons to aid his development. How about selecting an elite LT to protect the quarterback and give him time to throw the ball?

Russell Okung is a tremendous athlete with excellent length and footwork. He is a bit raw but the tools to be good are all there. ]]> http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/12/draft-scenarios-2/feed/ 1 http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/07/preseason-mock-draft-worth/ http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/07/preseason-mock-draft-worth/#comments Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:02:51 +0000 David Maziasz http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/?p=2842 What’s the Point?

Sports have become such a large industry in the U.S that we have several television channels, hundreds of magazines, newspaper sections, and Internet websites devoted solely to feeding the fire of information that the public so desperately craves. But have we allowed our appetite to become so large that we will read any worthless article regardless of it’s quality?

The Internet is stock full of useless information, and the NFL (draft) community is no different. Once a fun, yet educational tool, most mock drafts have become about as useless as wiping before you drop a log.

Making an accurate mock draft in April is already a daunting task. Conjuring up an accurate mock before the college or professional football season starts is an unimaginably difficult task for even the most football-savvy person.

For starters, there is no way of knowing the exact draft order until February, when the Superbowl is decided.  Until then, one can only guess the order by examining team schedules and trends. I am making a big deal about draft order because of how central it is to the Draft in the eyes of franchises. Owning the 1st pick versus the 2nd can be the difference between selecting Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

Furthermore, player analysis before the end of the college football season is based mainly around hype. The draft eligible players have not yet produced a full body of work. Players often only have about two seasons of experience as  starters before the leave college. As a talent evaluator, assessing a player based on one or two of their best college years is both unfair to the player and unwise on part of the evaluator. Especially in their younger years, consider how much difference a year can make in the development of a player. And what about those nasty injuries and off-the-field incidents that can ruin the hopes of these gifted athletes?

Premature evaluations occur all the time in these early mock drafts. I recall a very popular draft site by the name of Draftcountdown.com, which produced a mock draft early in the football season. The site owner, Scott Wright had South Carolina OT Jamon Meredith going in the first round, when in fact he ended up going in the fifth round this April.

If things were not complicated enough by having to evaluate players using limited information, early mock drafts have to project which Juniors are likely to declare for the draft once the season ends. Last season everyone predicted Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Mays, Jermaine Gresham, and others would be early entrants in the 2009 Draft. Imagine how much different a mock draft would look if these players were included. Mock drafts are so delicate that missing on one instance can drastically affect the rest of the simulation. If a mock draft includes five or ten ineligible players, the thing is nearly worthless.

To prove my point, take a look at one of the few early mock drafts that haven’t been “conveniently” erased from draft site archives. This particular one was created by Todd McShay of ESPN just after the 2008 draft:

McShay 2009 Mock Draft

A few things that stood out from the example.  Only ten of the thirty two players included in that mock actually were chosen in the first round; seven players did not enter the draft; two players ended up going in the 7th round; and the number one overall pick, Fili Moala actually was drafted in the 2nd round. No surprise that McShay didn’t correctly line up the player, team, and draft number in even one instance.

Not to throw dirt on an open wound, but those issues only relate to the college portion of draft evaluation. The other side of the equation deals with the goings on in the NFL: team needs and free agency. And how can even the most astute evaluator predict team needs before new additions to the team have had a chance to show their quality?

Subsequently, this extremely important ingredient in the mock draft is laughably overlooked. Mock drafters pretty much look at the remaining team needs that were not addressed during the draft or free agency. For example, if defensive end wasn’t filled via either of those methods, the mock drafter will place that as the highest priority for the next season. There is some credence to this methodology, but it is incomplete. For it fails to account any holes that may develop over the course of the season.  Team needs are constantly changing, and ranking them in order of urgency is a very complicated process.

Because mock drafting is an extremely difficult even a week before the Draft, why would anyone bother to spend time creating such a load of rubbish?

My best answer to that question reiterates what I said earlier. The bombardment of sports information has dulled our desire for quality. That desire has been usurped by a craving for quantity of information, no matter how worthless it is.

Please, do yourself a favor, don’t spend too much time reading mock drafts made at this time of year unless you’re only seeking a good laugh.

It makes you wonder, what has become the motivation behind mock drafts? Is it still the noble goal of educating the reader, or has it become yet another way to pass the time?

17. New York Jets

–Fan Pick- Other*

–My Pick- Jeremy Maclin (WR/Missouri)

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)

–Fan Pick- Everette Brown (DE/Florida St)

–My Pick- Rey Maualuga (ILB/USC)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

–Fan Pick- Jeremy Maclin (WR/Missouri)*

–My Pick- Peria Jerry (DT/Ole Miss)

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas)

–Fan Pick- Other

–My Pick- Michael Oher (LT/Ole Miss)

21.Philadelphia Eagles

–Fan Pick- Brandon Pettigrew (TE/Oklahoma St)

–My Pick- Brandon Pettigrew (TE/Oklahoma St)

22. Minnesota Vikings

–Fan Pick- Percy Harvin (WR/Florida)

–My Pick- Percy Harvin (WR/Florida)

23. New England Patriots

–Fan Pick- Connor Barwin (DE/Cincinnati)

–My Pick- Trade Down

24. Atlanta Falcons

–Fan Pick- Darius Butler (CB/Uconn)

–My Pick- Darius Butler (CB/Uconn)

25. Miami Dolphins

–Fan Pick- Aaron Maybin (DE/Penn St)

–My Pick- Aaron Maybin (DE/Penn St)

26. Baltimore Ravens

–Fan Pick- Tyson Jackson (DE/LSU)

–My Pick- Tyson Jackson (DE/LSU)

27.Indianapolis Colts

–Fan Pick- Brian Robiskie (WR/Ohio St)

–My Pick- Brian Robiskie (WR/Ohio St)

28.Buffalo Bills (from Philadelphia)

–Fan Pick-  N/A

–My Pick- William Beatty (LT/Uconn)

29. New York Giants

–Fan Pick- Clay Matthews Jr (OLB/USC)

–My Pick- Clay Matthews Jr (OLB/USC)

30. Tennessee Titans

–Fan Pick- Alphonso Smith (CB/Wake Forest)

–My Pick- Alphonso Smith (CB/Wake Forest)

31. Arizona Cardinals

–Fan Pick- Larry English (DE/Northern Illinois)

–My Pick- Larry English (DE/Northern Illinois)

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

–Fan Pick- Trade Down*

–My Pick- Trade Down

Note: An asterisk * indicates the fan selection was not the choice that received the highest number of votes.

-Trade Down

The reason there is no consensus on how the Steelers will draft, I think it’s safe to say there are no players that “fit” well enough to select at 32.  I know it’s not the popular thing to do, but Pittsburgh has very few needs, and since the value may not be there with their first pick, expect a trade to somewhere in the middle of the second round. A huge part of Pittsburgh’s draft success comes from their self-restraint, not reaching excessively based on need.

There will be several interior linemen available to them, but correct me if i’m wrong, Pittsburgh is stock full of guards and right tackles. They need a quick left tackle to protect Ben Roethlisberger, and they could also use a replacement for Bryant McFadden at CB. Nearly every single position has a solid starter penciled in, minus those two positions. What is needed is additional depth behind a few aging starters along the defensive line. The second round is precisely the time to grab those future starters (Jarron Gilbert DL, Ron Brace NT) on the d-line and at center (Alex Mack, Eric Wood).

The simple truth is this: the Steelers could use a few linemen, but only 5 OL have been chosen by them in the first 2 rounds since 1990 (2 OG, 3 OT). Only one of those OT’s was chosen in round 1 (1996). Pittsburgh likes to get impact players in the first round, but there aren’t many around at the end of round 1. Expect lots of help in the trenches to come in round 2-7.

-Percy Harvin (WR/Florida)

Percy Harvin (NFL.com)

Word on the street is despite a jaw-dropping workout, the character of Percy Harvin is scaring off quite a few potential suitors. If he falls as far as some have speculated (to the end of the first round), watch out AFC North because the Steelers could have themselves a player as dangerous as Devin Hester.  Assuming Pittsburgh has to move up only a few spots, it is entirely possible they will snatch a player that could take their offense to another level. If they are lucky, they might not even have to trade up to get him.

-Alex Mack (C/California)

Alex Mack (NFL.com)

Steeler nation missed their beloved running game last year. Ben Roethlisberger was involved in more passes than usual. The injury to rookie HB Rashard Mendenhall hurt a great deal, too. Judging from the players brought in to the team facility, the Behind the Steel Curtain blog reports that there is

“an emphasis on improving the running game, particularly power running. [Phil] Loadholt, the only OT, is a massive RT candidate whose strength is run blocking. [Herman] Johnson is the biggest guard prospect in the draft and [Louis] Vasquez is not far behind. The only TE brought in, Richard Quinn, is a superior blocker with limited receiving ability. The only RB, Frank Summers, is a miniature tank who Steelers RB coach Kirby Wilson described as one of the toughest guys to tackle he has seen.”

Among the group of visitors were 3 centers: A.Q. Shipley (Penn St), Max Unger (Oregon), and Alex Mack (Cal). The latter is an accomplished run and pass blocker, and has the great intelligence expected of centers in the NFL. He has been described by NFLdraftscout as possessing an aggressive football mentality:

once he steps on the football field, that nice persona is left in the locker room and his nasty demeanor takes over….Mack is the type who will do whatever it takes to finish his blocks. He plays and practices with true aggression and is the type that will play through pain. He has strong leadership qualities on and off the field. He is an intense competitor on the field who loves the game, likes the challenge and will leave his all on the football field. His tenacity is evident and he will not hesitate to throw an elbow to put a defender down.

However unlikely it may seem, if the Steelers stay at home with the 32nd pick, they might fall in love with Alex Mack. He is one heckofa football player.

See entire Hybrid Mock Draft here

This is the last pick of the mock draft. Make sure to vote because  over the next few days I will tally up all the votes and reveal my picks compared to your own! Also, thanks to all of you who followed this experiment in its entirety. It means a great deal to me.

[poll id="40"]

-Larry English (DE/Northern Illinois)

Larry English (NFL.com)

Good organizations tend to learn more from a loss than a win. Well, the Cards lost the big one in February to a team with one of the best defenses in recent memory. What was so great about that defense? Primarily, the pass rush generated by the dynamic duo of James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley.

In the closing moments of the first half, and in the last seconds of the game, those two athletes made plays that sealed the fate of the “new kids on the block.” Harrison intercepted a pass in the end zone and returned it for a touchdown, and Woodley forced a premature pass by Kurt Warner on the final play of the game.

But what does this have to do with the Cardinals?

Everything… look for Ken Whisenhunt to grab some pass rushers to upgrade his defense.

The one player available to the Cards in the first round that most closely resembles a Steeler linebacker is Larry English. So long as he is dedicated to learning to read coverages and is willing to play in space, he has all the tools to become an ferocious 3-4 OLB. His strength and explosion off the line of scrimmage are similar to Woodley, and his college production is eerily close, to boot (both had double digit sack counts in their senior seasons).

If Arizona wants to improve their defense, Larry English could be their man.

-Chris Wells (HB/Ohio St)

Chris Wells (NFL.com)

Their Arizona offense was rather one-dimensional especially during the Superbowl. Coincidentally, the lack of confidence in the Cardinals’ run game more or less cost them the championship. Just prior to the end of the first half, Kurt Warner tried to pass the ball in from inside the 5 yard line.  If the team had any semblance of a goal-line run game, they could have punched the ball in before the half.

They owe it to themselves to balance out that awesome passing game with a competent runner.

I’ve seen Chris Wells projected to selected anywhere from 4th overall to early second round. If he is available, the Cardinals must give him strong consideration. He will be able to carry the workload much better than the aging Edgerrin James, and can allow Tim Hightower to resume his role as spell back.

In order to be successful in the Arizona offense, Wells will have to work on his receiving ability, since that is considered his weakness.

For that reason, the team might desire Donald Brown, or they might take advantage of the depth of the class in later rounds.

Next on the clock: Pittsburgh Steelers

See entire Hybrid Mock Draft here

[poll id="39"]