Posts Tagged ‘Mock Draft’
Long overdue, I updated my Draft scenarios Mock Draft.
Although there is no change at the top of the draft, there are some surprises including a top player getting pushed out of the top 10.
So feel free to check it out and let me know what me know what you think!
Click here to view David’s Draft Scenarios/Mock Draft
Also, make sure to watch the Combine coverage, which starts tomorrow at 9 AM eastern time. Watch it live for free on NFL.com.
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Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
 The days of Marc Bulger are numbered, and the franchise needs to add young talent at quarterback if they are serious about winning any time soon. And considering how the Rams have already used top 5 picks on DE and OT, the only justifiable position to take this early is a quarterback. It is debatable who the best quarterback is, but St. Louis runs a version of the West Coast offense. For this reason, I would give a slight edge to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford over Washington’s Jake Locker. Bradford is blessed with superior leadership qualities, and supreme accuracy, two things that NFL teams covet out of their signal caller. Additionally, his experience operating out of the shotgun should not hurt him too much, since the Rams often utilize this formation themselves. |
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Jake Locker, QB, Washington
 It has been widely publicized that Eric Mangini is not keen on quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. I don’t blame him one bit. The passer ratings of the two QB’s are 36.2 and 70.4 respectively. Unfortunately, both of these players have contracts that may prevent Cleveland from upgrading the position.However, I do believe that Mangini will find a way to get an able-bodied QB to Cleveland in the form of Washington’s rocket armed Jake Locker. The Huskies signal caller is gifted with all the physical tools necessary to be a great NFL quarterback. |
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(A) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Detroit has many needs, including a glaring hole at LT. But if I learned anything last year about how the Lions’ front office drafts, it is this: they draft purely on grade and not based on need. If they have the chance to add perhaps the best player in this class, then it’s a done deal. They sorely need help on the interior of the defense, and there is no better way of doing this than acquiring a dominant DT like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh.
 After seeing the Vikings’ Kevin Williams shred the Lions’ offensive line by blowing up plays in the backfield, it seems that the Lions will be salivating at the ability to obtain such a similar talent in Suh. His unique blend of athleticism, strength, and technique will make him a fearsome force- exactly the type of player that Detroit has lacked for so long. (B) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Depending on how Suh grades out, and whether he is still on the board when the Lions make their selection, Detroit’s contingency plan may be to select the other can’t miss defender available: Tennessee safety Eric Berry. His elite skill set could be too much for GM Martin Mayhew to overlook, especially considering how the safety spot beside rookie Louis Delmas has been a revolving door in recent years. Players like Marquand Manuel and Kalvin Pearson aren’t cutting the mustard. So, a ball hawk roaming the weak Detroit secondary would be exactly what the doctor ordered. |
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| (A) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Since Tampa doesn’t need a LT or QB right now, they are in position to take the best player available. Sabby Piscitelli isn’t scaring opponents, and Jermaine Phillips is a free agent after this season. If the Bucs couple a promising young safety with the talent already present at cornerback, they could have a frightening secondary. Eric Berry is a game breaking safety prospect that would aid the Bucs in both pass coverage and run support. Tampa hasn’t had an impact player at safety since John Lynch departed for Denver. (B) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Tampa would undoubtedly love to add Ndamukong Suh to help fix the league’s worst run defense. But Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is one heck of a consolation prize if they decide to address the area of greatest need. The interior of the defensive line has been unable to get pressure, and they have been unable to hold their assigned gaps effectively. A gap penetrating tackle like McCoy is what Tampa had in Warren Sapp during their Super Bowl run. |
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(A) Taylor Mays, S, Southern Cal
 Raiders’ owner Al Davis is a sucker for speed and athleticism. The failure of former 1st rounder Michael Huff can only bolster his interest in the super-freak known as Taylor Mays. His amazing athleticism for a 6′3, 235 lb safety is remarkable. And if he times as expected in the 40 yard dash at the Combine, then he becomes the obvious candidate here. Grabbing Mays this early is not advisable, but we are talking about the owner who selected a punter in the 1st round way back when. Mays isn’t known for his coverage or ball skills, but he certainly can lay the wood and possesses the elite straight line speed that Davis covets. (B) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.
Although Mays is perhaps the player Davis “will” choose, the player he “should” choose is someone else entirely. Despite using three top 10 picks on offensive skill players in the last three years, Oakland is ranked last in the league in 1st downs and total yards per game. I am assuming that the Raiders will give JaMarcus Russell one last year to prove himself before letting him go. And the trend thus far has been to add weapons to aid his development. How about selecting an elite LT to protect the quarterback and give him time to throw the ball? Russell Okung is a tremendous athlete with excellent length and footwork. He is a bit raw but the tools to be good are all there. |
What’s the Point?
Sports have become such a large industry in the U.S that we have several television channels, hundreds of magazines, newspaper sections, and Internet websites devoted solely to feeding the fire of information that the public so desperately craves. But have we allowed our appetite to become so large that we will read any worthless article regardless of it’s quality?
The Internet is stock full of useless information, and the NFL (draft) community is no different. Once a fun, yet educational tool, most mock drafts have become about as useless as wiping before you drop a log.
Making an accurate mock draft in April is already a daunting task. Conjuring up an accurate mock before the college or professional football season starts is an unimaginably difficult task for even the most football-savvy person.
For starters, there is no way of knowing the exact draft order until February, when the Superbowl is decided. Until then, one can only guess the order by examining team schedules and trends. I am making a big deal about draft order because of how central it is to the Draft in the eyes of franchises. Owning the 1st pick versus the 2nd can be the difference between selecting Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.
Furthermore, player analysis before the end of the college football season is based mainly around hype. The draft eligible players have not yet produced a full body of work. Players often only have about two seasons of experience as starters before the leave college. As a talent evaluator, assessing a player based on one or two of their best college years is both unfair to the player and unwise on part of the evaluator. Especially in their younger years, consider how much difference a year can make in the development of a player. And what about those nasty injuries and off-the-field incidents that can ruin the hopes of these gifted athletes?
Premature evaluations occur all the time in these early mock drafts. I recall a very popular draft site by the name of Draftcountdown.com, which produced a mock draft early in the football season. The site owner, Scott Wright had South Carolina OT Jamon Meredith going in the first round, when in fact he ended up going in the fifth round this April.
If things were not complicated enough by having to evaluate players using limited information, early mock drafts have to project which Juniors are likely to declare for the draft once the season ends. Last season everyone predicted Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Mays, Jermaine Gresham, and others would be early entrants in the 2009 Draft. Imagine how much different a mock draft would look if these players were included. Mock drafts are so delicate that missing on one instance can drastically affect the rest of the simulation. If a mock draft includes five or ten ineligible players, the thing is nearly worthless.
To prove my point, take a look at one of the few early mock drafts that haven’t been “conveniently” erased from draft site archives. This particular one was created by Todd McShay of ESPN just after the 2008 draft:
A few things that stood out from the example. Only ten of the thirty two players included in that mock actually were chosen in the first round; seven players did not enter the draft; two players ended up going in the 7th round; and the number one overall pick, Fili Moala actually was drafted in the 2nd round. No surprise that McShay didn’t correctly line up the player, team, and draft number in even one instance.
Not to throw dirt on an open wound, but those issues only relate to the college portion of draft evaluation. The other side of the equation deals with the goings on in the NFL: team needs and free agency. And how can even the most astute evaluator predict team needs before new additions to the team have had a chance to show their quality?
Subsequently, this extremely important ingredient in the mock draft is laughably overlooked. Mock drafters pretty much look at the remaining team needs that were not addressed during the draft or free agency. For example, if defensive end wasn’t filled via either of those methods, the mock drafter will place that as the highest priority for the next season. There is some credence to this methodology, but it is incomplete. For it fails to account any holes that may develop over the course of the season. Team needs are constantly changing, and ranking them in order of urgency is a very complicated process.
Because mock drafting is an extremely difficult even a week before the Draft, why would anyone bother to spend time creating such a load of rubbish?
My best answer to that question reiterates what I said earlier. The bombardment of sports information has dulled our desire for quality. That desire has been usurped by a craving for quantity of information, no matter how worthless it is.
Please, do yourself a favor, don’t spend too much time reading mock drafts made at this time of year unless you’re only seeking a good laugh.
It makes you wonder, what has become the motivation behind mock drafts? Is it still the noble goal of educating the reader, or has it become yet another way to pass the time?
Hybrid Mock Draft Results (picks 17-32)
17. New York Jets
–Fan Pick- Other*
–My Pick- Jeremy Maclin (WR/Missouri)
18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
–Fan Pick- Everette Brown (DE/Florida St)
–My Pick- Rey Maualuga (ILB/USC)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
–Fan Pick- Jeremy Maclin (WR/Missouri)*
–My Pick- Peria Jerry (DT/Ole Miss)
20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas)
–Fan Pick- Other
–My Pick- Michael Oher (LT/Ole Miss)
21.Philadelphia Eagles
–Fan Pick- Brandon Pettigrew (TE/Oklahoma St)
–My Pick- Brandon Pettigrew (TE/Oklahoma St)
22. Minnesota Vikings
–Fan Pick- Percy Harvin (WR/Florida)
–My Pick- Percy Harvin (WR/Florida)
23. New England Patriots
–Fan Pick- Connor Barwin (DE/Cincinnati)
–My Pick- Trade Down
24. Atlanta Falcons
–Fan Pick- Darius Butler (CB/Uconn)
–My Pick- Darius Butler (CB/Uconn)
25. Miami Dolphins
–Fan Pick- Aaron Maybin (DE/Penn St)
–My Pick- Aaron Maybin (DE/Penn St)
26. Baltimore Ravens
–Fan Pick- Tyson Jackson (DE/LSU)
–My Pick- Tyson Jackson (DE/LSU)
27.Indianapolis Colts
–Fan Pick- Brian Robiskie (WR/Ohio St)
–My Pick- Brian Robiskie (WR/Ohio St)
28.Buffalo Bills (from Philadelphia)
–Fan Pick- N/A
–My Pick- William Beatty (LT/Uconn)
29. New York Giants
–Fan Pick- Clay Matthews Jr (OLB/USC)
–My Pick- Clay Matthews Jr (OLB/USC)
30. Tennessee Titans
–Fan Pick- Alphonso Smith (CB/Wake Forest)
–My Pick- Alphonso Smith (CB/Wake Forest)
31. Arizona Cardinals
–Fan Pick- Larry English (DE/Northern Illinois)
–My Pick- Larry English (DE/Northern Illinois)
32. Pittsburgh Steelers
–Fan Pick- Trade Down*
–My Pick- Trade Down
Note: An asterisk * indicates the fan selection was not the choice that received the highest number of votes.
