Clausen- One And Done?

In the last several weeks, a whirlwind of rumors have surfaced regarding the quarterback position and the future of Jimmy Clausen with the Carolina Panthers.  Plenty of pundits have weighed in, some claiming inside sources who suggest that Carolina will take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert with the first overall pick.  In other instances,  evaluators have come to believe that both Gabbert and Newton have the  upside to warrant #1 consideration.

That’s a fair argument, right? Well, here are a few other points worth mentioning.

8 of the last 10 players selected first overall were quarterbacks.

Seems good so far.

How about pointing out that Carolina hired a new head coach to turn around this wayward franchise.  And this coach has done and said many things to suggest he is very serious about finding a franchise quarterback, including handing out playbooks for his top 3 QB candidates to study, so that he can test their ability to absorb an NFL offense.

Awesome, it’s only a matter of time, now!

One more thing, I left out one small, tiny, minuscule draft history fact.

In the last 20 years, no team has ever burned a 1st round pick on a QB after spending a first or second round pick at the position the previous Draft. No exceptions.

Wait……what?

When teams spend a high round pick on a QB, they seem to be very afraid to give up on him so soon. To do so, would be to admit failure. After all, Marty Hurney (GM) is still there, and he was the guy who drafted Clausen in the first place.

Then, why the QB smokescreen?

Teams love to play this game because it supposedly hides their true intentions.  In this case, it my belief that the Panthers want to build trade value, in order to satisfy other needs, like DT. Broadcasting an interest in the top QB’s could potentially lead other QB hungry franchises to fall for Carolina’s bluff.

As some of you may know, I am strong believer in looking at Draft history to help shed light on tendencies in this unpredictable game that we know and love.

Can’t wait until the Draft!

Of the many surprises, several stood out more than the rest.

Ndamukong Suh drafted by Detroit Lions (NFL.com)

First, was the Jaguars selection of Tyson Alualu. Unless I am mistaken, nobody predicted that pick, and many people, including myself, thought he would not be in the first round at all. Perhaps, the Jaguars are looking to transition to a 34 front.  I figured they would go for Earl Thomas, but those Jags seem to beat to their own drum.

Undoubtedly, the second biggest surprise was the dynamic drop-off of Mel Kiper’s favorite player, Jimmy Clausen.   What was going on there?  I’m sure Todd McShay is gloating to Kiper because McShay had been warning us that this could happen. Perhaps, McShay will get to be on set next year, instead of the too-talkative Steve Young.

By the way, did anyone else who was watching the draft on ESPN think that Young talked too much, and Kiper too little?

Third big surprise was the Eagles trade up to get Brandon Graham.  I am a huge fan of Graham, and he absolutely deserves to go this high. But I didn’t think many teams felt the same way.

Fourth shocking event was the fact that Tim Tebow wound up getting a call from the Broncos at #25.   When the cameras switched to the Tebow party, somehow I thought he was celebrating in a room not unlike a dentist’s office.

The fifth surprise for me was the absence of Taylor Mays.  I guess all teams saw his lack of instincts and were afraid of taking him in the first round.

And the sixth thing that caught me off guard was how far Bryan Bulaga slipped.  Him going to Green Bay makes a lot of sense. But thought he would be scooped up no later than #9.

The final surprise was how aggressive the Detroit Lions have become in the Draft. They came away with two impact players in Suh and Jahvid Best.  If they had waited to see if Best was available at #34, I think they would have been disappointed.

Overall, I was very excited to watch the first round this year.  The new format was an excellent decision because it not only gives the GM’s a breather, but it also makes watching the Draft more palatable for fans. I look forward to more trades tomorrow!

I hoped you enjoyed reading about the study of the Rivals100 prospect rankings. But I would be remiss if I didn’t take that information and make some future predictions with it. After all, one of the best reasons to study the past is so we can venture to foretell the future.

Before we delve into a bit of new data, I want to set the mood, or paint a mental image, if you will. Now, let’s imagine that we are sitting in on the first day of class at the Gridiron University.

[Bell rings]

The aged professor sets his briefcase on a desk, then goes over to a computer, squinting through his black, thick-rimmed glasses to pull up his Powerpoint slides. After several minutes, he looks up, and with a loud voice we hear “good morning, class.  Welcome to Football 101.”

[Teaching assistant passes out syllabus]

Time passes slowly, and just as you start to nod off to sleep, you hear:

“If you would please turn to page 4 of your syllabus, I would like to go over the grade distribution for this course.”

“The grade scale is relative. Based on previous years, I have given an average of 32% A’s, 22% of which have been an A+. After that, 4% have been B’s. The rest were failing grades. I expect that your grades will follow that trend.”

Having heard this, you suddenly have the urge to look at around the classroom. You find that all the students are glancing at each other, sizing up their competition. At this time, you realize a surly-looking group of 10 oversized guys sitting in the corner of the room. Their names are as follows (complete with 2008 statistics):

1. Jimmy Clausen (6’3, 217 lbs) (QB, Notre Dame): 60.9% completion, 25 touchdowns/17 interceptions, 3100 passing yards, 132 QB rating

2. Joe McKnight (6’0, 200 lbs) (HB, Southern Cal): 659 rush yards, 7.4 yards per carry, 2 rushing TD’s

3. Eric Berry (5’11, 203 lbs) (DB, Tennessee): 72 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 interceptions

4. Ryan Mallett (6’7, 248 lbs) (QB, Arkansas-transfer from Michigan): Sat out last season because he transferred schools.

5. Carlos Dunlap ( 6’6, 290 lbs)  (DE, Florida): 9.5 sacks, 13.5 tackles for loss, 39 tackles, started 2 games

6. Everson Griffen (6’3, 265 lbs) (DE, Southern Cal): 4.5 sacks in 3 starts, 18 tackles

7. Marvin Austin (6’2, 305 lbs) (DT, North Carolina): 35 tackles, 1 sack (had 4 sacks in ’07)

8. Ronald Johnson (6’1, 185 lbs) (WR, Southern Cal): 550 receiving yards, 8 TD’s

9. Torrey Davis (DT, Florida): Left school

10. Josh Oglesby (6’7, 330 lbs) (OL, Wisconsin): 3 starts at Right Tackle

[A hint for you, those 10 names are the 2007 Rivals top 10. They will all be juniors this year, and therefore have the option to enter the NFL Draft at season's end.]

If a grade of A+ was the equivalent of a being a top 10 pick in the NFL Draft, an A was equivalent to 1st round status (after the top 10), a B equaled 2nd round status, and anything later than that was a F, then who would pass and who would fail?

Here is my best guess at answering that question:

-Top 10 draft picks will be Carlos Dunlap and Eric Berry. Dunlap has the build to make scouts drool, and his production based on number of starts is astounding. Berry is a fixture on a tough Tennessee defense. He also has ideal size to play in the NFL, and his great production shows he has a nose for the football.

-The other first round selection should be either Jimmy Clausen or Joe McKnight. My study showed Rivals has 80% accuracy rate when predicting 1st round potential for the top 2 picks in their rankings. Although, I think Clausen in extremely over-hyped, he has shown growth in his two seasons at Notre Dame. If you throw in the terrible offensive line play, he hasn’t done too badly. However, I am not sure he has demonstrated the decision making ability and maturity to lead an NFL team. No doubt, he will have to show those skills to become the elite QB he is supposed to be.

Joe McKnight has awesome athleticism, but will have to put on more weight for NFL teams to feel comfortable with him as a workhorse running back.

That’s my best guess right now…but you were in the classroom watching with me. Who do you think will succeed in this group?