Up until the draft, I’d like to spend some time breaking down the mock draft picks within the Draft community in the hope that it may stimulate some quality discussion (or at least some good thoughts).

As a part of the first segment I will start by looking at the various picks assigned to the teams drafting in the 1-2 range (starting with St. Louis).  I’ll express why I think an individual is a good or bad fit for a given team.

#1  St. Louis Rams

Possible choices: Sam Bradford

After he successfully answered the nagging questions about his health, Sam Bradford has become the consensus #1 overall pick. Ever since I released my first mock draft, I figured that things would play out this way.  The Rams are desperate for a young quarterback to lead this team, especially after just releasing Marc Bulger. I won’t rehash things too much, but Bradford is the best quarterback prospect in the Draft, and is a legitimate top 5 selection. On many levels, it makes little sense to choose one of the DT’s over the game’s most important position.

#2 Detroit Lions

Possible choices: Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

My friend at Lions In Winter, Ty Schalter artfully explained why each of these players would or would not fit into the Lions system.

Suffice it to say, the Russell Okung selection was a knee-jerk lashing out against the under-appreciated LT Jeff Backus. In actuality, the Lions real hole existed at LG. If you add in the fact that they just patched that hole up by trading for a capable starter in Rob Sims, the selection of Okung makes even less sense. I will concede that selecting Okung (or Trent Williams) would give the Lions their future LT  once Backus retires, and it gives them additional flexibility and depth. They could have insurance for Gosder Cherilus if he continues to slump at RT, but that is still an exorbitant sum of money to hand out to a RT.

It is well known that LT provides considerably more positional value than a DT. But pass rushers are very valuable. Period. Ndamukong is not a 2-down run-stuffer. He is every bit a 3-down pass-rushing, run-stopping defensive lineman, which raises his value. I would agree that Okung should be the pick IF all things were equal. We aren’t considering apples to apples here.

Ndamukong Suh is considered the far superior prospect, and I don’t say that to take anything away from Okung. It’s just that Suh is a fantastic prospect. When you pay a player $40+ million, you have a faint hope that this player can be really special. In my estimation, Suh has a higher chance of being that kind of player.

The important key to drafting in the top 5 picks, as Mike Mayock says, is “to control value.” I believe Suh is the better value. His talent outweighs Okung’s positional value advantage.

The other possible target of the Lions is Gerald McCoy. I happen to believe he is not quite as good a fit as Suh for the Lions defense if you look at the defenses that both defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and head coach Jim Schwartz have run in the past.

For example, McCoy is a perfect fit for the Tampa Two defense, which relies almost exclusively on it’s front four to generate pressure, and thrives with a gap penetrating 3-technique such as McCoy. The Lions too would rely mainly on their defensive front to generate  a pass rush, but they are also have more duties in the run game. Gunther Cunningham likes to show different looks, and a scheme diverse player like Suh will allow him to create some unique packages to confuse opposing offenses.

Even so, I can’t argue strongly against McCoy because he is such an exceptional player.  But I’d rather have Suh, if I were the Lions.

What most people may not realize is just how little separates these two, a race that may not be concluded until negotiation time, just days before the Draft begins.

So, let’s take a closer look, shall we?

Ndamukong Suh’s rise to the top has been meteoric, to say the least. In August, all but the most astute were aware of the lineman from Nebraska. Seven months later, he is a household name, and the people’s choice for number 1 overall to the St. Louis Rams. His well-deserved reputation in most circles is such that it is quite uncommon to hear someone try to find holes in his game.  I mean think about it, the guy finished the season with 12.5 sacks, and led his team in tackles…as a defensive tackle, for crying out loud! All this led to him earning consensus 1st team All-American honors as well as being invited to the Heisman Trophy award ceremony, which hasn’t honored a defensive lineman this way since Warren Sapp. In addition to this high honor, Suh came away with virtually every other award imaginable: the Lombardi Trophy, Outland Trophy, Bednarik Award, and the distinguished Nagurski Trophy for defensive player of the year.

All the buzz and awards seem to point to the obvious fact that Ndamukong Suh will be the number #1 pick of the draft. The majority of draft sites, including high profile sites like ESPN, NFLdraftscout, and Scout.com consider Suh to be the best defensive lineman available in this draft. But in NFL circles, another name is thought to be more deserving of that spot.

Pro Football Weekly’s draft writer Nolan Nawrocki recently published his evaluation of the top underclassmen in the draft. And although I don’t endorse the order of some of his picks, his reasoning regarding one player in particular is quite intriguing:

1. Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy — A strong, disruptive, explosive inside rusher who has been dominating the college football scene since he stepped onto the field, McCoy has warranted higher grades from NFL evaluators than Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and stands a legitimate chance to be the first overall pick in the NFL draft.

Gerald McCoy earned the respect of scouts early on in his career, to a point where he could have declared for the draft as a redshirt sophomore and still would have been considered a top 15 pick. However, he came back to school to earn his degree, and to improve his abilities for one more year. His production was more modest than Suh’s, recording 6 sacks and 32 tackles this season. He was a finalist for the Lombardi Award and earned 1st or 2nd team All-American depending on which source you look at.

This begs the question, how can Gerald McCoy still be considered a better pro prospect by NFL scouts than Ndamukong Suh? The answer is concealed within the game tape.

First of all, McCoy is viewed as a very polished, true 3-technique penetrator. He is very violent and extremely disruptive, slipping off blocks like water on rock.  He has solid character, works extremely hard, and is surprisingly durable.  And at 6’4, 295 (with a frame to hold more weight) he possesses the wide girth necessary to hold up in the interior. Most importantly, even though he doesn’t always make the big play himself, McCoy affects plays with frightening regularity, which is perhaps the number one reason why scouts love him.

In comparison, Suh is an extremely powerful player with great quickness and superior balance. He has been unblockable at times, even against double teams. Nevertheless, he is viewed as a somewhat raw prospect compared to McCoy because his form of dominance in the college game may not work nearly as well in the pros. His natural abilities are so great that he has been dominant at the college level without having to develop much of a pass rush repertoire. He relies too heavily on his strength, which could cause some problems when trying to acclimate to the pro game. In the NFL, strength alone is almost never enough to make a player great unless you’re a revolutionary player (which Suh could be). The offensive linemen are simply too powerful for a one-trick pony to beat consistently, especially one who weighs less than 300 pounds (and could very well weigh in around 285-290 at the Scouting Combine).  At best, he is going to need some coaching at the next level to learn how to beat linemen in other ways. In the worst case, he might be asked to make a position change to end, where he probably could be a dominant force just like Richard Seymour. If teams believe he can successfully make that position switch, thus playing at a level not unlike Richard Seymour, then his awesome value remains in tact.

I just can’t get that Big 12 Championship game out of my head. Gerald McCoy never was able to single handedly control a game like that.

Suh absolutely took over that game in a way that I have never seen before from an interior lineman. That is the tantalizing upside to which I previously referred.  My only question about that game is whether he can do such a thing consistently at the next level, because those Texas interior linemen had been a weakness for the Longhorns all season.

Ultimately, we have to factor circumstances into why McCoy may be selected over Suh. The first four teams in this draft (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Washington) all run 4-3 defenses, which seems to favor McCoy. And now that we know the powers that be believe that Gerald McCoy has better realized ability than Ndamukong Suh as a defensive tackle prospect, it seems all is working in his favor right now. Suh’s potential may be greater, but his NFL readiness isn’t near that of McCoy.  And like it or not, that matters in this league. But can a team justifiably pass on potentially the can’t miss player of the decade?  Because that carries some weight, too.

Based on your experience, who is the better  pro prospect and why?

• Height: 6-4
• Weight: 297
  
• DT
• Oklahoma

Soonersports.com

Attribute	Rating
Explosiveness
Pass Rush
Run Defense
Strength
Agility
Football I.Q
Tackling
Durability

Scouting Report

After his redshirt sophomore season, Gerald McCoy was considered to be a top 15 pick for the 2009 NFL Draft. Instead of declaring, he returned to Oklahoma to improve his skills and to earn his college degree.  His senior campaign only reinforced his reputation as a disruptive force on the defensive interior. In my opinion, he is a better pass rush technician than Ndamukong Suh. McCoy just isn’t blessed with the same kind of raw athleticism that Suh possesses.

Explosiveness: Very quick off the snap.  His violent and relentless  movements make him difficult for all but the most athletic linemen to contain.Splits through the line with frightening regularity.

Pass Rush: Extremely active hands, and a great motor are his strongest assets. Relies on finesse moves (mainly the rip and swim) to beat his blocker and get to the quarterback.  This is also his main weakness. Lacks power moves and will require more strength to succeed against NFL guards and tackles. However, he has shown flashes of potential with the bull rush, and can pancake linemen when he gets them off balance. Gets skinny to slip between double teams.

Run Defense: Not always stout at the point of attack. Moved outside in goal line situations. Instead, McCoy is able to affect the run game by slicing into the backfield and redirecting the running back.  He is able to shed blockers with ease, but is also capable of filling his gap to funnel plays to the linebackers. Not regularly asked to anchor against the run, but does a decent job of it. Attacks the line sometimes blindly, causing him to lose track of the ball carrier, in addition to making himself vulnerable to cut blocks.

Strength: Good, even great lower body muscle mass, but could definitely use some additional strength in his upper body.

Agility: Shows enough lateral movement to play outside at end in a 3-4 defensive front.

Football I.Q: Team captain with excellent character and work ethic.

Tackling:  Tallied 32 tackles during his 2009 campaign.  Not a forceful hitter, but wraps up well. Shows good effort and hustles down the line in pursuit. Needs to take better tackling angles when bursting through the line of scrimmage.

Durability: Healthy as a horse- McCoy has not missed a game in his 3 years as a starter.

Listed below are a few Youtube video links of Gerald McCoy for you to study:

2008 Gerald McCoy Highlights (created by prodraftparty)

Gerald McCoy vs. Florida, National Championship game (created by Alodraft)

(1) St. Louis Rams

The days of Marc Bulger are numbered, and the franchise needs to add young talent at quarterback if they are serious about winning any time soon. And considering how the Rams have already used top 5 picks on DE and OT, the only justifiable position to take this early is a quarterback.

It is debatable who the best quarterback is, but St. Louis runs a version of the West Coast offense. For this reason, I would give a slight edge to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford over Washington’s Jake Locker. Bradford is blessed with superior leadership qualities, and supreme accuracy, two things that NFL teams covet out of their signal caller. Additionally, his experience operating out of the shotgun should not hurt him too much, since the Rams often utilize this formation themselves.

(2) Cleveland Browns

It has been widely publicized that Eric Mangini is not keen on quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. I don’t blame him one bit. The passer ratings of the two QB’s are 36.2 and 70.4 respectively.

Unfortunately, both of these players have contracts that may prevent Cleveland from upgrading the position.However, I do believe that Mangini will find a way to get an able-bodied QB to Cleveland in the form of Washington’s rocket armed Jake Locker. The Huskies signal caller is gifted with all the physical tools necessary to be a great NFL quarterback.

(3) Detroit Lions

Detroit has many needs, including a glaring hole at LT. But if I learned anything last year about how the Lions’ front office drafts, it is this: they draft purely on grade and not based on need. If they have the chance to add perhaps the best player in this class, then it’s a done deal. They sorely need help on the interior of the defense, and there is no better way of doing this than acquiring a dominant DT like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh.

After seeing the Vikings’ Kevin Williams shred the Lions’ offensive line by blowing up plays in the backfield, it seems that the Lions will be salivating at the ability to obtain such a similar talent in Suh.  His unique blend of athleticism, strength, and technique will make him a fearsome force- exactly the type of  player that Detroit has lacked for so long.

(B) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Depending on how Suh grades out, and whether he is still on the board when the Lions make their selection, Detroit’s contingency plan may be to select the other can’t miss defender available: Tennessee safety Eric Berry. His elite skill set could be too much for GM Martin Mayhew to overlook, especially considering

how the safety spot beside rookie Louis Delmas has been a revolving door in recent years. Players like Marquand Manuel and Kalvin Pearson aren’t cutting the mustard. So, a ball hawk roaming the weak Detroit secondary would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since Tampa doesn’t need a LT or QB right now, they are in position to take the best player available. Sabby Piscitelli isn’t scaring opponents, and Jermaine Phillips is a free agent after this season. If the Bucs couple a promising young safety with the talent already present at cornerback, they could have a frightening  secondary.

Eric Berry is a game breaking safety prospect that would aid the Bucs in both pass coverage and run support. Tampa hasn’t had an impact player at safety since John Lynch departed for Denver.

(B) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Soonersports.com

Tampa would undoubtedly love to add Ndamukong Suh to help fix the league’s worst run defense. But Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is one heck of a consolation prize if they decide to address the area of greatest need. The interior of the defensive line has been unable to get pressure, and they have been unable to hold their assigned gaps effectively. A gap penetrating tackle like McCoy is what Tampa had in Warren Sapp during their Super Bowl run.

(5) Oakland Raiders

Raiders’ owner Al Davis is a sucker for speed and athleticism. The failure of former 1st rounder Michael Huff can only bolster his interest in the super-freak known as Taylor Mays. His amazing athleticism for a 6′3, 235 lb safety is remarkable. And if he times as expected in the 40 yard dash at the Combine, then he becomes the obvious candidate here.

Grabbing Mays this early is not advisable, but we are talking about the owner who selected a punter in the 1st round way back when. Mays isn’t known for his coverage or ball skills, but he certainly can lay the wood and possesses the elite straight line speed that Davis covets.

(B) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

NFL.com

Although Mays is perhaps the player Davis “will” choose, the player he “should” choose is someone else entirely. Despite using three top 10 picks on offensive skill players in the last three years, Oakland is ranked last in the league in 1st downs and total yards per game. I am assuming that the Raiders will give JaMarcus Russell one last year to prove himself before letting him go. And the trend thus far has been to add weapons to aid his development. How about selecting an elite LT to protect the quarterback and give him time to throw the ball?

Russell Okung is a tremendous athlete with excellent length and footwork. He is a bit raw but the tools to be good are all there. ]]> http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/12/draft-scenarios-2/feed/ 1 http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/11/draft-scenarios/ http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/2009/11/draft-scenarios/#comments Sat, 28 Nov 2009 01:48:37 +0000 David Maziasz http://www.nfldraftblogger.com/?p=3331 1. St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

The days of Marc Bulger are numbered, and the franchise needs to add young talent at quarterback if they are serious about winning any time soon. And considering how the Rams have already used top 5 picks on DE and OT, the only justifiable position to take this early is a quarterback.

It is debatable who the best quarterback is, but St. Louis runs a version of the West Coast offense. For this reason, I would give a slight edge to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford over Washington’s Jake Locker. Bradford is blessed with superior leadership qualities, and supreme accuracy, two things that NFL teams covet out of their signal caller. Additionally, his experience operating out of the shotgun should not hurt him too much, since the Rams often utilize this formation themselves.

2. Cleveland Browns

Jake Locker, QB, Washington

It has been widely publicized that Eric Mangini is not keen on quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. I don’t blame him one bit. The passer ratings of the two QB’s are 36.2 and 70.4 respectively. Unfortunately, both of these players have contracts that may prevent Cleveland from upgrading the position.

However, I do believe that Mangini will find a way to get an able-bodied QB to Cleveland in the form of Washington’s rocket armed Jake Locker. The Huskies signal caller is gifted with all the physical tools necessary to be a great NFL quarterback.

3. Detroit Lions

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Detroit has many needs, including a glaring hole at LT. But if I learned anything last year about how the Lions’ front office drafts, it is this: they draft purely on grade and not based on need. If they have the chance to add perhaps the best player in this class, then it’s a done deal. They sorely need help on the interior of the defense, and there is no better way of doing this than acquiring a dominant DT like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh.

After seeing the Vikings’ Kevin Williams shred the Lions’ offensive line by blowing up plays in the backfield, it seems that the Lions will be salivating at the ability to obtain such a similar talent in Suh.  His unique blend of athleticism, strength, and technique will make him a fearsome force- exactly the type of  player that Detroit has lacked for so long.

Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Depending on how Suh grades out, and whether he is still on the board when the Lions make their selection, Detroit’s contingency plan may be to select the other can’t miss defender available: Tennessee safety Eric Berry. His elite skill set could be too much for GM Martin Mayhew to overlook, especially considering how the safety spot beside rookie Louis Delmas has been a revolving door in recent years. Players like Marquand Manuel and Kalvin Pearson aren’t cutting the mustard. So, a ball hawk roaming the the weak Detroit secondary would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs

Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Since Tampa doesn’t need a LT or QB right now, they are in position to take the best player available. Sabby Piscitelli isn’t scaring opponents, and Jermaine Phillips is a free agent after this season. If the Bucs couple a promising young safety with the talent already present at cornerback, they could have a frightening  secondary.

Eric Berry is a game breaking safety prospect that would aid the Bucs in both pass coverage and run support. Tampa hasn’t had an impact player at safety since John Lynch departed for Denver.

Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Tampa would undoubtedly love to add Ndamukong Suh to help fix  the league’s worst run defense. But Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is one heck of a consolation prize if they decide to address the area of greatest need. The interior of the defensive line has been unable to get  pressure, and they have been unable to hold their assigned gaps effectively. A gap penetrating tackle like McCoy is what Tampa had in Warren Sapp during their Super Bowl run.

5. Oakland Raiders

Taylor Mays, S, Southern Cal

Raiders’ owner Al Davis is a sucker for speed and athleticism. The failure of former 1st rounder Michael Huff can only bolster his interest in the super-freak known as Taylor Mays. His amazing athleticism for a 6’3, 235 lb safety is remarkable. And if he times as expected in the 40 yard dash at the Combine, then he becomes the obvious candidate here.

Grabbing Mays this early is not advisable, but we are talking about the owner who selected a punter in the 1st round way back when. Mays isn’t known for his coverage or ball skills, but he certainly can lay the wood and possesses the elite straight line speed that Davis covets.

Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

Although Mays is perhaps the player Davis “will” choose, the player he “should” choose is someone else entirely. Despite using three top 10 picks on offensive skill players in the last three years, Oakland is ranked last in the league in 1st downs and total yards per game. I am assuming that the Raiders will give JaMarcus Russell one last year to prove himself before letting him go. And the trend thus far has been to add weapons to aid his development. How about selecting an elite LT to protect the quarterback and give him time to throw the ball?

Russell Okung is a tremendous athlete with excellent length and footwork. He is a bit raw but the tools to be good are all there.

Picks 6-10 coming soon!