Matt Millen: Lions’ Bane

(View Millen Blueprints here)

In Detroit, the people love their sports. Star athletes like Barry Sanders and Isiah Thomas were and still are treated like kings. Few cities sport such a rich history and such a loyal fan base quite like Detroit (and Michigan as a whole).

If sports are so important in Detroit, you can only imagine how strongly the fans dislike Matt Millen: the one who built the worst performing product in NFL history. He unintentionally brought great shame upon an already suffering city.

The former Oakland Raiders, Redskins, and 49ers linebacker with four Super Bowls rings was asked by the Detroit Lions on a fateful day in 2001 to come on as President and CEO of the team. Beloved by the media as a brilliant commentator and TV analyst, Millen was at the time seen as a popular pick to help restore the roar to the city of Detroit, even though he had no prior front-office experience.

However, the next 7 years were not at all what anyone had expected from this football man.

Under his leadership, the Lions went 31-84, and completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history.  I had to sit and watch from afar as my beloved state of Michigan went through the national ridicule that can only be had by failing to win even a single game.

Millen’s failures in the Draft have become stuff of legend.  First round failures such as Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Joey Harrington turned a relatively decent team (in the 1990′s) into the laughing stock of the NFL.

Every football fan is aware that Millen had such an affinity for skill position players, such as wide receiver, that he wound up using four top 15 picks on that position alone.

Not only did Millen “strike out” on some picks, but he retired the side (to use a baseball term). Charles Rogers had severe character issues that resulted in him being arrested multiple times on drug-related charges. Mike Williams almost never saw the playing field partially because of some college issues related to his eligibility, and also because of injuries and a reported lack of effort.

But aside from his obvious mistakes, this is where studying Millen gets very interesting. At a glance, you may notice some very strange things about his draft history (found in his Draft Blueprints).

For the record, this article is not an attempt to justify his actions. But many of the complaints about him are unfounded and unfair. So I want to take a moment to analyze some ill-informed statements by the general public.

One of the main criticisms of Matt Millen by the Detroit faithful has been that he used too many picks on the offensive side of the ball. We were all clamoring for more defense.

I would be the first to confess being in this camp. In fact, it wasn’t until I had a lengthy conversation with Ty, author of The Lions In Winter blog, that I realized some startling observations about Millen’s drafts. Just after Martin Mayhew was hired as the Millen’s replacement, I became very excited to hear that there would be a renewed focus on the interior of the offense and defense; something I had convinced myself that Millen had wholely ignored.

If you thought the same, you’d be dead wrong.

I wasn’t alone when I said to myself prior to this year’s draft, we need to build through the trenches.  “Draft a lineman with that first pick.”  Lions’ beat writer for Mlive, Tom “Killer” Kowalski was clamoring the same thing. ‘Let’s do something Millen never did-draft some quality linemen to start off the new regime!’

Such selective memories we have, right?

I had blocked out the fact that Millen began by drafting LT Jeff Backus and C Dominic Raiola with his first two picks as head of the Lions.

Imagine my surprise to find out that Millen used exactly 30 picks on offense and 32 picks on defensive players.

Okay, so maybe Millen used about an equal number of picks on offense and defense. Perhaps he chose defensive players in the late rounds, and offense mainly in the early rounds.

Nope, that wasn’t the case either. Of his first day draft selections (rounds one and two), precisely ten players were chosen on each side of the ball.

Finally, Millen seemed to have followed conventional wisdom by selecting a balanced number of players on defense and offense, which has been a relatively common occurrence among the best drafters. His Draft Blueprints look very similar to those of the great evaluators.

I had a theory that his drafts would look structurally different on the most basic level (as shown in the Draft Blueprints). But his failures in the draft are more subtle.

A most disconcerting thought, perhaps Millen did many things right, but had the worst string of ill-fortune in the history of football.

A note of optimism for Lions fans: new GM Martin Mayhew really may have learned what not to do, by watching Matt Millen work. It seems he didn’t repeat Millen’s mistakes this draft when he chose an infusion of talent over need.  Maybe there is hope in Detroit after all!

Also, I think that analyzing the Draft Blueprints is a useful exercise, but it is rather incomplete. Therefore, I will be taking this study a step further by looking at the number of quality starters drafted by good and bad evaluators. Hopefully, that exercise will shed some light on why Millen’s drafts look so structurally similar to those of excellent talent evaluators like Bill Belichick and Bill Walsh.

An administrative note, if you want to learn more about how the Lions got into such a mess, then please check out Detroit Lions Fan 1979′s blog. He is writing a series of articles that compliment this Millen study nicely.

Getting Defensive: Kevin Colbert & Ozzie Newsome

(View Steelers & Ravens Draft Blueprints history here)

Despite their short-lived animosity, the perennial feud between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens has grown into one of the NFL’s premier rivalry matches because of the similar philosophies and strategies of the two teams. Separated by a mere 200 miles, the two defensive juggernauts have written the book on how to play defensive football.

Sports Illustrated wrote a fantastic piece on these two teams, revealing some incredible statistics:

Over the past 10 years the Ravens…and Steelers rank one and two in the NFL, respectively in total defense.

Below that, a chart displaying all the defensive categories shows the two teams own the top two spots in nearly every one of 16 defensive categories, including yards allowed per game, points per game, rushing defense, and passing defense.

Needless to say, such high praise intrigued me enough to create a Draft Blueprint for the current GM’s for Pittsburgh and Baltimore (you can find the Excel attachment at the top of this page).

But this I can say, his teams have fared extraordinarily well because of the talent he brings in on a early basis.  His most notable draft acquisitions include Lamarr Woodley, Casey Hampton, Plaxico Burress, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Ike Taylor, and Santonio Holmes. All but one of those players (Burress) can still be found on the roster.

As for Baltimore, GM Ozzie Newsome has been working in the front-office since the Ravens entered the league in 1996. He joined the team as a player personnel executive, and was promoted to GM in 2002. Since he had such an influence in draft decisions as personnel decisions, his tenure at that position is included in this report.

In the same SI article mentioned above, it states how Mr. Newsome used “10 of his first 14 picks on defensive players.”  He overloaded the defensive side of the ball with talent, and he was rewarded many times over with the 2000 Raven defense that ranks among the best of all-time.

Some of his notable players are Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Adalius Thomas, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.

I absolutely love watching the Ravens and Steelers play football. I think they play the game the way it should be played: physically, passionately, and with some ingenuity. If you feel the same way as I do, then we both have Kevin Colbert and Ozzie Newsome to thank for enriching the game that is so near and dear to us.

This concludes the Draft Blueprints coverage of the best teams in the NFL. Next post will examine an example of poor draft behavior, as demonstrated by the former Detroit Lions’ GM Matt Millen.

(View Thompson Draft Blueprints here)

Green Bay Packers’ GM Ted Thompson has long been a stout champion of drafting best player available (BPA), regardless of need. To some people, this philosophy makes little sense. But considering how the draft is a crapshoot, you’re much less likely to get caught with your pants down that way.

Case in point being Thompson’s draft behavior in 2008. He drafted wide receiver Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round, even though Green Bay had one of the most potent receiving tandems in the league. Furthermore, Thompson selected two more quarterbacks when Aaron Rodgers  (and technically, Brett Favre too) was on the roster.

Some of the more notable picks made since Thompson’s arrival are A.J. Hawk (OLB), Aaron Rodgers (QB), Greg Jennings (WR), and Nick Collins (FS). Interestingly, some of the team’s most successful players have been a result of Thompson’s excellent eye for talent in the later rounds of the draft.

But before I make this man out as being infallible, I must say, for every success, there’s been a bust. And I know that any Packers fan will be quick to remind me how much a failure former 1st round DT Justin Harrell has been. Under the Ted Thompson regime, Harrell has been perhaps the largest whiff by the front-office.

Characteristic of any value-driven GM, Thompson has become famous for being active on draft day, trading down to gain additional picks.

Despite his good track record, Thompson’s habits come across as arrogant and sometimes stupid. I have talked with several Packers fans who are less than happy with the way the Packers draft. But somehow, big Ted puts together a quality team that was a hop, skip, and a jump from the Super bowl 2 years ago.

And finally, the reason he makes this list is for his emphasis on building the team through the draft, which inevitably means that the vast majority of the squad came through this method.

Please click here (Bill Walsh Draft Blueprints) to view the attachment of the complete study on Walsh’s draft history.

Few coaches can boast that they invented the offense that they run. San Francisco 49ers coach Bill Walsh could claim such high praise. During his tenure in the Golden State, he  invented the West Coast offensive scheme, winning three Superbowls on his way to the Hall of Fame.

I want to note Walsh’s supreme understanding of the intricacies of the NFL Draft. This knowledge allowed him to produce some of the richest draft classes in history. His most noteworthy draft came in 1986, a pivotal year in the franchise.  In that year, Walsh desperately needed to replenish his roster, and replenish the roster he did, indeed.  By masterfully trading for additional picks, Walsh ended up with 13 draft selections, and made all of them count. The players acquired that year allowed San Francisco to maintain league dominance for many more years. For this reason, the 49ers’ 1986 draft will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

CBSsports.com and NFL.com provided the raw data for this study.

Please click here (Parcells Draft Blueprints) to view the attachment of the complete study on Parcells’ draft history.

Perhaps one of the most colorful personalities of the modern football era, Bill Parcells has become known as a savior of horrific franchises. When others have failed, he somehow has the Midas touch and sprinkles some of his magic on every organization in which he has been involved.
His first shot as a head coach in the NFL came in 1983, working with the hapless New York Giants. The previous ten years had produced only one winning season. However, Parcells showed his quality chiefly in the draft, where he showed a keen eye for talent. Within three years, his Giants had won the first of their two Superbowls during Parcells reign.
A decade later, Bill left the success in New York to

[take] over a weak New England team, which had gone 2-14 the year before he arrived. There he had quickly begun to work his specialty: the quick rehabilitation of teams embedded near the bottom of the standings.  In 1993, New England went to 5-11, and in 1994, 10-6. (David Halberstam, The Education Of A Coach)

After New England, Parcells took his talents to the New York Jets, helping make them perennial playoff contenders before leaving for his final coaching destination in Dallas.

2006 became the legendary coach’s final season before hanging up his spurs. But he became restless and took the job as Executive for the Miami Dolphins. In only one year, he turned that outfit from the worst in the league (1-15), into AFC East division champs. He still holds that position to this day.

How to Build a Championship Team

About 8 months ago, I was sitting at my work computer thinking “why are the Detroit Lions so incredibly bad?”

This question led me to two more fundamental questions: “how do the great front office executives draft? Do they draft certain positions at certain times, and how frequently do they draft those positions?”

Little did I know that these seemingly simple questions would lead me to create this blog!

So, I identified men who built great teams, both past and present, and came up with this list of eight names:

• Bill Polian, former executive of Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers. Current president of Indianapolis Colts.
• Bill Parcells, former head coach of New York Giants, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys. Current executive for Miami Dolphins.
• Bill Walsh, former head coach of San Francisco 49ers.
• Bill Belichick, current head coach of New England Patriots
• Ted Thompson, current GM for Green Bay Packers
• A.J. Smith, current GM of San Diego Chargers
• Kevin Colbert, current GM for Pittsburgh Steelers
• Ozzie Newsome, current GM of Baltimore Ravens

I broke down every draft pick by round and player position, and put it onto a series of Excel spreadsheets. I used NFL.com’s draft history section to help with this study.

Today, I have Bill Polian’s draft history, which will begin the Draft Blueprint series.

For those of you who might be unfamiliar with Polian, here is an excerpt from Wikipedia on him:

Bill Polian is the President of the Indianapolis Colts NFL team. He rose to league prominence as the General Manager of the Buffalo Bills, building a team that participated in four straight Super Bowls. Following his stint in Buffalo, Polian went on to become the General Manager of the expansion Carolina Panthers, where his initial success in building what was arguably the most rapidly successful expansion team in NFL history led to his moving on to the Colts. He has won the NFL’s Executive of the Year award 5 times (1988, 1991, 1995, 1996, and 1999).

I hope you enjoy the series!