Each team will have a few players (listed in order of likelihood of being picked) that I believe they can target, depending on who else is chosen prior to that pick. So naturally, you may see a few players show up more than once.

Each post will look in-depth at 1 team starting with pick #1:

1. Detroit Lions

NFL.com

- Aaron Curry (OLB/Wake Forest):

For a team with one of the NFL’s worst defenses of all time, Curry could be the catalyst to jump start a roster starving for talent. Seldom do you see such a complete player come along, and when you do, take him. He simply has no weakness: very vocal leader, extraordinary intensity, awesome speed and athleticism, intelligence, and no injury history. I can’t think of a bad thing to say about this guy.  I was super excited to see him destroy competitors at the combine, where he placed first in all the drills except bench press (7th place overall). To top it off, he looked awesome in position drills and posted one of the fastest 40 yard dash times amongst all of the defensive players (4.56 seconds).

Although he doesn’t play a premium position, he is definitely the best player available. Let’s face it, the Lions simply cannot afford to miss on this pick because the money issues would cripple them beyond belief. He obviously is being seriously considered because Lions GM Martin Mayhew took only about 4 players, including Curry out to dinner during the combine.

-Jason Smith (LT/Baylor)

NFL.com

After allowing 52 sacks (2nd worst in NFL), it’s hard to argue Detroit’s offensive line doesn’t need some help. Left tackle Jeff Backus allowed more sacks than nearly every other starting left tackle during 2008. Offensive guard Edwin Mulitalo was sent packing, and there is little to look forward to behind him. Basically, Jason Smith could step in early and help anchor the line at left tackle, while Jeff Backus could theoretically be moved to guard or vice versa.

Both Mayhew and coach Schwartz emphasized how essential the trenches are to winning. They want to be able to run the ball and stop the run. Jason Smith, although a better pass blocker than run blocker has the best tools of the top 3 tackle prospects.

-Matthew Stafford (QB/Georgia)

Although Daunte Culpepper was recently resigned, the likely departure of Dan Orlovsky leaves the Lions a bit thin at the quarterback position.  Anyone who watched the 2008 season knows the Lions don’t have an all-pro caliber player there, so they might grab Matthew Stafford if they evaluate him highly enough.

NFL.com

Most people argue Stafford is the obvious pick for Detroit because history tells us that new regimes like to pick a quarterback to begin their rebuilding plans. Bill Polian did it in Indianapolis and Carolina by choosing Peyton Manning and Kerry Collins respectively. Bill Parcells chose Drew Bledsoe when he came to the Patriots. But here is the twist. The Lions are in a unique position since they are the first team to ever go 0-16. This unique situation calls for a unique fix.

Stafford was one of the 4 guys to be taken out to dinner by Detroit during the combine. But that could easily have been a smokescreen to increase trade value. However, he is a smart guy who has a wonderful set of physical skills.Yet, he does suffer from inconsistent play, as you can see by Stafford’s numbers against top 25 defenses. And I doubt he is quite as ready for the pro game as most top flight quarterbacks. He will likely have to sit a while before he is ready to start. Additionally, I think Stafford actually hurt himself by not throwing at the combine. Coach Jim Schwartz expressed disappointment in a player who doesn’t have the will to compete.

Ultimately, the Lions are insistent on signing their top pick before draft day. Stafford is the least likely to do this because his agent is known around the league for being a hardballer, fighting to get top dollar contracts for his players.

Next On the Clock: St. Louis Rams

Make sure to vote so I can include the fan picks into each post. We can make a little game out of comparing the fan pick with my own!

[poll id="2"]

There is something about these meat and potatoes players that I absolutely love. To me, the defensive tackles and offensive guards embody the game of football. They are not usually noticed unless they do something wrong. Nobody would expect them to have a Bo Jackson physique. Yet, they are essential pieces of any good offense. They are real old school reminders of what the game used to be: power football.

My top picks for interior linemen include: guards Duke Robinson (Oklahoma), and Andy Levitre (Oregon St.),  centers Alex Mack (Cal), Jonathan “Mario and Luigi” Luigs (Arkansas), and Max Unger (Oregon).

Duke Robinson is a mountain of a man at 6’5 and 335 lbs. He definitely has the size to be great in the NFL. But he struggled against elite competition in the National Championship game versus Florida. In that game, he was called for penalties several times, which really stalled drives. Nevertheless, he is a solid prospect for teams looking for a great run blocker.

Alex Mack is a guy I would love to have on my team. He has great size, an incredible physique for a lineman, and is a nasty run blocking center.

The most intriguing of the linemen could be Max Unger. Since he is very athletic, he saw time at almost every position on the line during his career.

Like I said earlier, interior linemen are meat and potatoes players. Thus, you seldom see them taken before round 2 of the draft. It probably will be the case this year as well.

Final installment: Tight Ends

It seems impossible to talk about 2009 receivers without starting with Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech). So that is exactly where I will begin!

Michael Crabtree (NFL.com)

Michael Crabtree is a unique player with a very unique skill set. He was a high school quarterback but quickly adapted to the wide receiver position in college. He has been gifted with extraordinary hands, exceptional run power with the ball in his hands, great leaping ability, and a knack for find the soft spots on the field. Furthermore, he was a top 5 heisman candidate as a receiver, which is very difficult to do (just ask Larry Fitzgerald). He does not possess lightning top speed of a guy like Percy Harvin (Florida). And he isn’t nearly the man-child that Calvin Johnson was coming out. But whatever way you slice it, he is going to be a special talent in the NFL for many years.

2-time national champion Percy Harvin may be the best athlete on offense in this draft. He played a hybrid version of tailback or slot receiver in college. Yet, he might fill the Reggie Bush role in the NFL. He is supremely able to turn a screen play into a touchdown. And he is deceptively strong for a guy of his stature. He may drop due to his injury history, but the team that snags him will be getting one heckofa playmaker. His coach Urban Meier said it himself that Percy Harvin is the best player in America….

Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin reminds me of Ted Ginn Jr. (Miami Dolphins). He will a very good kick returner, and has the size and athleticism to be either a slot receiver or wide out. He was super productive in college, albeit against very weak Big 12 passing defenses. He is a bit raw and will probably need a year or so to work on his technique before he is ready to make a large contribution as a receiver.

A couple of sleepers include Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina) and Jordan Norwood (Penn St.). I saw these guys in some ESPN challenge before the Super Bowl, and they showed great hands, and powerful running.

I found an article written by Scott Wright’s Draftcountdown.com on October 16th to be rather insightful. Although I respectfully disagree on a few points, Scott pointed out what factors should be in place to prevent a young quarterback from becoming a bust. Although his list of factors is slightly different than mine, I would like to highlight what I believe are the keys to success. The most necessary pieces that must be in place include: a solid offensive line, a stout defense, and a patient coaching staff that will allow time for their QB to develop. And to reinforce these elements, I highly suggest you watch this video posted on NFL.com that summarizes my point.

Before I continue, I want to say that my favorite team, the Lions, have the first pick in the draft. And, I’m scared they might be foolish enough to draft a quarterback first. I mean they haven’t exactly proven they are  good at working the draft!

But for now, I want to point out that the Lions have none of these pieces in place. Also, I might add that what they should do and what they will do are often entirely different.

The first element is a solid offensive line. The Lions allowed a total of 52 sacks during the regular season, ranking second worst in the NFL. As a unit, the line doesn’t play with enough aggression to dominate the line of scrimmage, it lacks a true anchor, and it has suffered too many injuries.  And the only reason they didn’t finish last in the league in rushing is a result of Kevin Smith’s good rookie year.

The second element needed is a good defense. The Ravens, Patriots, and Vikings (all ranked top 10 defenses) all helped their young quarterbacks out by keeping game scores low. Instead of putting games on the shoulders of a inexperienced player, these teams only expected them not to lose the games.

Because they were the league’s worst defense (remember the Thanksgiving game against the titans), the Lions were forced to play risky football to stay on pace with their opponents. As a result, they couldn’t run enough, had to throw deep too often, and turned the ball over too frequently. Any attempt to implement a conservative run based offense (which I happen to like) failed miserably because the defensive philosophy was not built to complement it.

The final element I want to address is the coaching staff. Teams absolutely cannot rush the development of their quarterbacks or else they might get a bust like Alex Smith from the 49ers. Allowing a year to learn the playbook and to adjust to the speed of the pro game are almost necessary these days, unless you are one the rare few like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, or Peyton Manning, who happened to be ready to make the transition from very early on.

Unless a franchise solidifies these 3 elements before drafting a 1st round quarterback, they are taking a risk that I wouldn’t be willing to make. The cost of failure is too high in a day and age where top picks demand so much guaranteed money. And in the Lions’ case, why shell out that kind of money so their quarterback of the future can ride the bench while they attempt to accumulate the necessary pieces to help him?

Next time: 2009  quarterback prospects at a glance

It’s hard for me to believe either of these guys are worthy of a top pick when they have rather large question marks.

First of all, despite liking Sanchez, I feel he made a colossal mistake by leaving USC early. He was simply too inconsistent throughout the season; only truly turning heads in his final game in the Rose Bowl. Yes, I love his moxie in the pocket, a quick release, and good accuracy. But Sanchez has hardly more than one year of experience starting.  And according to statistical analyses, the best indicator of future success for quarterbacks happens to be experience. If you add his injury problems to the list, he is a risky pick to take before the middle of round one.

Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, has hypnotized some with his impressive arm strength. But there is more to being a quarterback than the velocity of their throws.  If I remember correctly, JaMarcus Russell  was graded highly for the very same reason. And we all know how well that panned out  for the Raiders…. As a matter of fact, I see many similarities between Russell and Stafford.

To jog your memory, both guys  played for SEC teams with a great deal of talent around them. Furthermore, both players’ calling cards are their extraordinarily powerful arms.

Nevertheless, possibly Stafford’s greatest flaw is his inconsistency. If you look at some of his games, including his performance against Michigan State, he really struggled. Only at the very end did he warm up and get comfortable in the pocket. I understand he has been asked to make tough NFL type throws, but  a quarterback is judged by all of his throws, not simply the ones that result in scores.

However, I think both  guys will eventually contribute to the teams they play for. Yet, I find it a stretch to draft them with a top 5 pick in this year’s draft.  They are enigmatic because they show flashes of brilliance, just not frequently enough for my comfort level.  In other words, I don’t think they look like the “too good to pass on” picks of the 2009 NFL Draft. But the combine has a way of changing things…

Would you take Stafford or Sanchez in the top 5?

Part 2 coming soon!

Defensive Tackles

A dominant defensive tackle is the foundation of any elite defense. To be great, defenses must possess a man who can control the line of scrimmage. They are not glamorous picks, but they free up their teammates to do their jobs successfully. Of the five top defenses (in yards allowed per game), four have an elite defensive tackle. Here’s how the future prospects measure up in comparison:

B.J. Raji (Boston College) offers the most scheme versatility. On film, he is an absolute animal against his competition. I pity  lineman who try to single or double team him. When he tries, there are no questions about his strength and ability to plug the middle. Mark my words, he should be gone in the first five picks.

After Raji, I absolutely  love Peria Jerry’s (Ole Miss) great intensity and lower body strength. On numerous occasions, I have seen him drive blockers backwards as if there was nobody there. It’s only for nagging injuries that he may find his stock drop on draft day.

Another immense talent is Missouri’s Evander Hood. It would be a  rare thing indeed to find a guy who plays with more intensity and drive than him. He gives his all on each and every down, which is why I think he will succeed in the pros as a pass rusher. He is a bit undersized, but  so is Darnell Dockett on the the Arizona Cardinals. Hood’s play reminds me of Dockett’s disruptive playing style.

Mid-round steals could be Terrance Taylor (Michigan) and Ron Brace (Boston College). Taylor is a former state champion wrestler with tree trunks for legs. He only lacks height, measuring in at just under 6 feet.

Brace looks the part at 6′ 3 and 320 lbs, but is rather sluggish and isn’t close to the athlete that his teammate Raji is. But any coach with patience and time to tutor these guys may get solid football players.

Special article coming up: Quarterback Controversy

Safeties

Since Taylor Mays (USC) decided to return for his final year at school, there is an underwhelming number of high profile safeties this year.  This kid is far and away the best player at his position and would have probably been a top 5 pick.  Therefore, the top safety in the draft is William Moore (Missouri). He is very good at stopping the run, and he has good size and athleticism. Yet, he hasn’t really been playing at his best because of injuries. He certainly is not the next coming of Ed Reed, but he can be a solid starter for a team that values run stopping safeties.

Behind Moore, I have to say that Louis Delmas (Western Michigan) and  Rashad Johnson (Alabama)  are the next best players at safety. They will fall in around the third round. Both guys, especially Johnson are very hard workers. In fact, Johnson was a walk-on at one of the best universities in the country. I don’t know about you, but that tells me he is a smart guy who works harder than most. Both guys are instictive players who manage to make big plays despite their smaller size.

Patrick Chung (Oregon)  and David Bruton (Notre Dame) are liabilities in pass coverage, but are solid against the run.

Next time: Defensive Tackles

Cornerbacks

Hey guys, today I want to talk about cornerbacks. The cream of this year’s cornerback crop is, in my opinion, Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest), and Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State). Vontae Davis (Illinois) physically is better, but is not quite as complete a football player as Smith or Jenkins.

I can’t shake this feeling in my gut tells me Jenkins may be a better safety in the pros. He has the speed and size to play either position, but he seems to get beat more than one would hope for. I think it ultimately comes down to what the team that drafts him needs.

His colleague, Smith, could be a better version of Ellis Hobbs on the New England Patriots. In fact, if not for his height, he would easily be the best prospect at his position. I understand that height is important when you are covering tall receivers, but it doesn’t seem to be justifiable to devalue Smith because he is ONE inch smaller than some of the top corners in the NFL. Ronde Barber and Asante Samuel are both 5’10 and are two of the best in the league. This boy can really play football, and I believe he is every bit as good as Jenkins.

As for Vontae Davis, some team like the Patriots will take a gamble on him because of his incredible physical tools and his huge upside. But he comes with a caveat emptor, as he was sometimes uncoachable. Under the right circumstances, like under the wing of Belichik, he could blossom into an excellent cornerback.

D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt) is another intriguing prospect because of his versatility and great athleticism. He doesn’t have the resume on defense like Smith or Jenkins, but with corners you can never pay too much attention to stats. The reason that a shutdown corner may have NO stats is because the opposing quarterback won’t throw to his side of the field. This may be the case for Moore.

I consider players like Macho Harris (Virginia) and Coye Francis (San Jose State) to be the second tier players who would be worth gambling on a bit in the 3^rd round.

Next time: Safeties

Linebackers

Okay, before I delve into the details of linebackers in this draft, let’s rewind to last off-season for a moment…

Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis and USC’s Rey Maualuga just declared that they will return to their respective Universities for one final year of seasoning. Can you believe this? Both these guys just came off great seasons. Their stocks can’t rise any higher.  As it turns out, that statement was quite true.

Now, fast forward back to the present situation. As talented as these guys are, their performances  didn’t do much to solidify themselves as the top two linebackers in this 2009 draft.  Although Maualuga had a very good season, he just couldn’t quite match last year’s performance at the Rose Bowl against Illinois. Despite three incredible years, Laurinaitis is being scrutinized for not possessing that killer instinct that scouts look for.

But in my book, these guys are smart, gifted athletes who will both have successful careers in the NFL, and should fall into the first or early second rounds.

Even so, there is a new linebacker who entered the picture this season. He isn’t the household name that Maualuga is, but this year’s Butkus award winner, Wake Forest’s Aaron Curry is the real deal. You will be hard pressed to find a more complete football player in this draft than Curry. He is a truly intense leader on defense, always seems to make impact plays, and he is extremely versatile because he has the speed, size, and athleticism to play outside or inside in either 3-4 and 4-3 defensive scheme.

Now, I think Curry (Wake Forest) is the top linebacker in this draft, with James Laurinaitis (OSU) and Rey Maualuga (USC) closely following  him.  After those three, I like Clint Sintim (Virginia) and Brian Cushing (USC).  Although not flashy, they are both solid football players who can pressure the quarterback well. Behind those 5 players, I consider Scott Mckillop (Pitt), Clay Matthews (USC), and Marcus Freeman (OSU) quality mid-round picks.

If you add in the defensive ends like Brian Orakpo, Aaron Maybin, Larry English, and Everette Brown,  who may become 3-4 rush linebackers, this very well could be the best crop of linebackers in years!

Next up: Defensive backs

(part 1)

Defensive Ends

No player in this year’s draft has solidified himself as the clear-cut number 1 pick thus far. And frankly, I am not sure anyone WILL run away from the competition like you so often see elite players do this time of year. I can’t say there are any of Mario Williams or Peyton Manning’s caliber who are franchise players. Nevertheless, don’t judge this year’s class on just its top 5 or 10 players, but more so by its depth from pick 1 down to pick 200.

With that said, let me start by discussing the defensive ends.

Like I said before, there may be no Mario Williams types, but a handful of ends will be chosen in the first round alone. This class of ends is mainly suited for defensive schemes where speed and athleticism are emphasized, namely the 4-3 end or 3-4 rush linebacker spots. Brian Orakpo (Texas), Everette Brown (Florida State), Larry English (Northern Illinois), Tyson Jackson (LSU), and Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech) could all go in the first or second round. In fact, depending on who drafts them, English, Orakpo, and Brown are all possibilities to bounce to outside linebacker in the 3-4 schemes.

My favorite player in this group is Brian Orakpo. If it weren’t for frequent injury concerns and some inconsistent technique, I would seriously consider him to be a top 5 pick. Keep an eye on him during the combine (benches 515 lbs. and runs the 40 yard dash in 4.6 seconds). I had a class with “Rack daddy,” and he is a monster in person!  To give you a comparison from last year, think Vernon Gholston type of build. Orakpo will probably do as well at the combine or even better!

Unfortunately, Michael Johnson will also shine at the combine, which may coax teams to grade him higher than he should be. In my opinion, he just disappears on film at times, and seems to be a major underperformer. He is a serious boom or bust type of player who I wouldn’t use a first round pick on.

Next installation will be looking at the linebackers. So check back soon!