I’ve grown tired of the idea of traditional mock drafts. So I designed one that accounts for possible trade spots and for a range of scenarios. That way when a player is chosen well before he should be, you won’t be thrown for a loop when your team is on the clock.

Each team will have a few players (listed in order of likelihood of being picked) that I believe they can target, depending on who else is chosen prior to that pick. So naturally, you may see a few players show up more than once.

Each post will look in-depth at 1 team starting with pick #1:

1. Detroit Lions

NFL.com

- Aaron Curry (OLB/Wake Forest):

For a team with one of the NFL’s worst defenses of all time, Curry could be the catalyst to jump start a roster starving for talent. Seldom do you see such a complete player come along, and when you do, take him. He simply has no weakness: very vocal leader, extraordinary intensity, awesome speed and athleticism, intelligence, and no injury history. I can’t think of a bad thing to say about this guy.  I was super excited to see him destroy competitors at the combine, where he placed first in all the drills except bench press (7th place overall). To top it off, he looked awesome in position drills and posted one of the fastest 40 yard dash times amongst all of the defensive players (4.56 seconds).

Although he doesn’t play a premium position, he is definitely the best player available. Let’s face it, the Lions simply cannot afford to miss on this pick because the money issues would cripple them beyond belief. He obviously is being seriously considered because Lions GM Martin Mayhew took only about 4 players, including Curry out to dinner during the combine.

-Jason Smith (LT/Baylor)

NFL.com

After allowing 52 sacks (2nd worst in NFL), it’s hard to argue Detroit’s offensive line doesn’t need some help. Left tackle Jeff Backus allowed more sacks than nearly every other starting left tackle during 2008. Offensive guard Edwin Mulitalo was sent packing, and there is little to look forward to behind him. Basically, Jason Smith could step in early and help anchor the line at left tackle, while Jeff Backus could theoretically be moved to guard or vice versa.

Both Mayhew and coach Schwartz emphasized how essential the trenches are to winning. They want to be able to run the ball and stop the run. Jason Smith, although a better pass blocker than run blocker has the best tools of the top 3 tackle prospects.

-Matthew Stafford (QB/Georgia)

Although Daunte Culpepper was recently resigned, the likely departure of Dan Orlovsky leaves the Lions a bit thin at the quarterback position.  Anyone who watched the 2008 season knows the Lions don’t have an all-pro caliber player there, so they might grab Matthew Stafford if they evaluate him highly enough.

NFL.com

Most people argue Stafford is the obvious pick for Detroit because history tells us that new regimes like to pick a quarterback to begin their rebuilding plans. Bill Polian did it in Indianapolis and Carolina by choosing Peyton Manning and Kerry Collins respectively. Bill Parcells chose Drew Bledsoe when he came to the Patriots. But here is the twist. The Lions are in a unique position since they are the first team to ever go 0-16. This unique situation calls for a unique fix.

Stafford was one of the 4 guys to be taken out to dinner by Detroit during the combine. But that could easily have been a smokescreen to increase trade value. However, he is a smart guy who has a wonderful set of physical skills.Yet, he does suffer from inconsistent play, as you can see by Stafford’s numbers against top 25 defenses. And I doubt he is quite as ready for the pro game as most top flight quarterbacks. He will likely have to sit a while before he is ready to start. Additionally, I think Stafford actually hurt himself by not throwing at the combine. Coach Jim Schwartz expressed disappointment in a player who doesn’t have the will to compete.

Ultimately, the Lions are insistent on signing their top pick before draft day. Stafford is the least likely to do this because his agent is known around the league for being a hardballer, fighting to get top dollar contracts for his players.

Next On the Clock: St. Louis Rams

Make sure to vote so I can include the fan picks into each post. We can make a little game out of comparing the fan pick with my own!

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Interior Linemen

There is something about these meat and potatoes players that I absolutely love. To me, the defensive tackles and offensive guards embody the game of football. They are not usually noticed unless they do something wrong. Nobody would expect them to have a Bo Jackson physique. Yet, they are essential pieces of any good offense. They are real old school reminders of what the game used to be: power football.

My top picks for interior linemen include: guards Duke Robinson (Oklahoma), and Andy Levitre (Oregon St.),  centers Alex Mack (Cal), Jonathan “Mario and Luigi” Luigs (Arkansas), and Max Unger (Oregon).

Duke Robinson is a mountain of a man at 6’5 and 335 lbs. He definitely has the size to be great in the NFL. But he struggled against elite competition in the National Championship game versus Florida. In that game, he was called for penalties several times, which really stalled drives. Nevertheless, he is a solid prospect for teams looking for a great run blocker.

Alex Mack is a guy I would love to have on my team. He has great size, an incredible physique for a lineman, and is a nasty run blocking center.

The most intriguing of the linemen could be Max Unger. Since he is very athletic, he saw time at almost every position on the line during his career.

Like I said earlier, interior linemen are meat and potatoes players. Thus, you seldom see them taken before round 2 of the draft. It probably will be the case this year as well.

Final installment: Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

It seems impossible to talk about 2009 receivers without starting with Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech). So that is exactly where I will begin!

Michael Crabtree (NFL.com)

Michael Crabtree is a unique player with a very unique skill set. He was a high school quarterback but quickly adapted to the wide receiver position in college. He has been gifted with extraordinary hands, exceptional run power with the ball in his hands, great leaping ability, and a knack for find the soft spots on the field. Furthermore, he was a top 5 heisman candidate as a receiver, which is very difficult to do (just ask Larry Fitzgerald). He does not possess lightning top speed of a guy like Percy Harvin (Florida). And he isn’t nearly the man-child that Calvin Johnson was coming out. But whatever way you slice it, he is going to be a special talent in the NFL for many years.

2-time national champion Percy Harvin may be the best athlete on offense in this draft. He played a hybrid version of tailback or slot receiver in college. Yet, he might fill the Reggie Bush role in the NFL. He is supremely able to turn a screen play into a touchdown. And he is deceptively strong for a guy of his stature. He may drop due to his injury history, but the team that snags him will be getting one heckofa playmaker. His coach Urban Meier said it himself that Percy Harvin is the best player in America….

Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin reminds me of Ted Ginn Jr. (Miami Dolphins). He will a very good kick returner, and has the size and athleticism to be either a slot receiver or wide out. He was super productive in college, albeit against very weak Big 12 passing defenses. He is a bit raw and will probably need a year or so to work on his technique before he is ready to make a large contribution as a receiver.

A couple of sleepers include Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina) and Jordan Norwood (Penn St.). I saw these guys in some ESPN challenge before the Super Bowl, and they showed great hands, and powerful running.

How to set a Quarterback up for success

I found an article written by Scott Wright’s Draftcountdown.com on October 16th to be rather insightful. Although I respectfully disagree on a few points, Scott pointed out what factors should be in place to prevent a young quarterback from becoming a bust. Although his list of factors is slightly different than mine, I would like to highlight what I believe are the keys to success. The most necessary pieces that must be in place include: a solid offensive line, a stout defense, and a patient coaching staff that will allow time for their QB to develop. And to reinforce these elements, I highly suggest you watch this video posted on NFL.com that summarizes my point.

Before I continue, I want to say that my favorite team, the Lions, have the first pick in the draft. And, I’m scared they might be foolish enough to draft a quarterback first. I mean they haven’t exactly proven they are  good at working the draft!

But for now, I want to point out that the Lions have none of these pieces in place. Also, I might add that what they should do and what they will do are often entirely different.

The first element is a solid offensive line. The Lions allowed a total of 52 sacks during the regular season, ranking second worst in the NFL. As a unit, the line doesn’t play with enough aggression to dominate the line of scrimmage, it lacks a true anchor, and it has suffered too many injuries.  And the only reason they didn’t finish last in the league in rushing is a result of Kevin Smith’s good rookie year.

The second element needed is a good defense. The Ravens, Patriots, and Vikings (all ranked top 10 defenses) all helped their young quarterbacks out by keeping game scores low. Instead of putting games on the shoulders of a inexperienced player, these teams only expected them not to lose the games.

Because they were the league’s worst defense (remember the Thanksgiving game against the titans), the Lions were forced to play risky football to stay on pace with their opponents. As a result, they couldn’t run enough, had to throw deep too often, and turned the ball over too frequently. Any attempt to implement a conservative run based offense (which I happen to like) failed miserably because the defensive philosophy was not built to complement it.

The final element I want to address is the coaching staff. Teams absolutely cannot rush the development of their quarterbacks or else they might get a bust like Alex Smith from the 49ers. Allowing a year to learn the playbook and to adjust to the speed of the pro game are almost necessary these days, unless you are one the rare few like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, or Peyton Manning, who happened to be ready to make the transition from very early on.

Unless a franchise solidifies these 3 elements before drafting a 1st round quarterback, they are taking a risk that I wouldn’t be willing to make. The cost of failure is too high in a day and age where top picks demand so much guaranteed money. And in the Lions’ case, why shell out that kind of money so their quarterback of the future can ride the bench while they attempt to accumulate the necessary pieces to help him?

Next time: 2009  quarterback prospects at a glance