The 2007 NFL Draft was the first one where I really started to devour any and every mock draft I could find on the Internet. I would pour over Walter football, Scott Wright’s Draft Countdown, and the Sports Illustrated issue just before the draft, I’d read it before going to bed.

On one occasion, I remember discussing with one of my co-workers about my hope that the Detroit Lions would draft Vernon Gholston.

(Sure am glad that didn’t happen….)

I was naive enough to believe that predicting the draft was rather straightforward. You know, analyze team needs, then select the best player at a position of great need.

It was a long time ago….

Years later, sitting here at my computer, I am armed with greater experience, and tons more knowledge about the inner workings of the draft. Yet, I feel that the more I learn, the more I realize how delightfully unpredictable the whole process can be.

I also know that the daunting task of analyzing all 32 NFL teams for a mock draft can cause subtle details to be overlooked. Allow me to elaborate more on this concept.

1. The Carolina Panthers have been linked to both Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert for quite some time. Indeed, it is readily apparent that neophyte quarterback Jimmy Clausen struggled to command the Panthers offense last season. Largely for that reason, Carolina now sits atop the draft, where quarterbacks seem to be in high demand.

However, I wrote recently about how no team over the last 20 years has ever selected a 1^st round QB after selected one in the 1^st or 2^nd round the previous year.

If quarterback is not the answer, consider providing a receiving target like A.J. Green, or try upgrading the defensive line with arguably the best player in the draft, Marcell Dareus.

2. The San Francisco 49ers hired Jim Harbaugh out of Stanford to replace Mike Singletary as head coach. At Stanford, Harbaugh emphatically stated that he wanted “scholar-athletes” on his football team. If those words can be taken at face value, it suggests that he wants more than just high football I.Q. Perhaps a test like the Wonderlic  carries weight with Harbaugh and his staff.

Largely for this reason, I find talk about Patrick Peterson going to San Fran seems awfully far-fetched. I’d be shocked if he slipped that far, and his abnormally low Wonderlic could be a substantial red flag to Harbaugh.

Then, who might the 49ers be after?  Prince Amukamara or J.J. Watt seem to be prime candidates.

3. The Dallas Cowboys have not left any stone unturned with regards to scouting the major offensive tackle prospects. Reports have even suggested that Dallas is the team that has shown the most interest in USC tackle Tyron Smith.

I’m just not buying the hype. I do agree that Dallas needs help along the offensive front, but not with the 9^th pick. I’ve watched Tyron Smith, and here is what I see on tape:

An ideal zone-blocking tackle who can effectively latch and turn his opponent with his good quickness. Didn’t show the ability to consistently drive block, and would take time to adjust to a man blocking scheme.

Smith’s value will be at its highest in a zone blocking scheme such as the one that Houston or Washington runs. But I simply do not believe he carries that grade for the Dallas Cowboys. They run the type of man blocking scheme that requires big nasties. Tyron Smith would be among the smallest members of that front. Take a glance at some of the OT’s the Cowboys have employed in the recent past. It is clear that Smith (in red) would be substantially smaller than all the others on the list:

Marc Colombo            6-8/ 320

Leonard Davis             6-6/ 355

Doug Free                      6-6/ 320

Flozell Adams              6-7/ 338

Sam Young                    6-8/ 322

Alex Barron                  6-8/ 316

Tyron Smith                 6-5/ 310

If Dallas is dead set on taking a tackle at 9, I suspect that either Anthony Castonzo or Nate Solder would look the part. Prince Amukamara is a popular pick, if he makes it past the 49ers. And J.J. Watt needs to be in the discussion, too. He doesn’t get the attention from the media, but all I can say is watch him line up against Ohio State and sack Terrelle Pryor 3 times. Need I say more?

4. Like Dallas, the Detroit Lions are another team that utilizes the man blocking scheme. If they were to select Tyron Smith at 13, I’d have a tough time wrapping my brain around that decision. Castonzo and Solder could figure into Detroit’s plans if they could trade back a few spots. But it ultimately boils down to how much they like the progress that Jason Fox has made this past season. He was brought in as a developmental guy who might be able to take over for Jeff Backus sooner or later.

Most of the prospects Detroit has brought in figure to be mid-first rounders. It seems they are poised to trade down to get greater value for their targets. If they can’t, bolstering the defensive line with a prospect like Aldon Smith or Cameron Jordan would give Detroit more options once Kyle Vanden Bosch hangs up his cleats. Cornerback and linebacker are severe needs, but there are some excellent values in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds (Ras I-Dowling, Bruce Carter, Mason Foster).

I can certainly understand that some people will not agree with my method of thinking. If you’re one of those people, leave your thoughts, and I’ll give you my feedback!