Mike Martin DT, Michigan (Jr): [6'2" /299 lbs]

Hulk-like strength (505 lb. bench press/ 700 lb. squat), top notch quickness ( 4.9  40-yard dash), combined with unparalleled conditioning  make this nose tackle a disruptive force.  Previously overshadowed by standout DE Brandon Graham, 2010 could be  Martin’s year to shine.

Cameron Heyward DT, Ohio State (Sr): [6'5"/ 288 lbs]

Powerful bull rusher with prototypical size and length for NFL 3-4 defensive end. Good production (6.5 sacks/10 TFL) and a high motor last season. Lacks bulk to play interior d- line at the next level. Needs to learn more pass rush moves.

Adrian Clayborn DE, Iowa (Sr): [6'4"/ 285 lbs]

An especially productive ’09 campaign (11.5 sacks/20 TFL) placed this Iowa DE on every scouting watch list.  Clayborn’s great size and power make him a punishing tackler and smothering run defender. Yet, he has proven to be an equally adept pass rusher and can really push the pocket and get after the quarterback. Most definitely, Clayborn will draw keen interest as a 5-technique DE.

Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State (Sr): [6'1"/240 lbs]

Whenever a linebacker tallies 154 tackles in a season, he must be doing something right. Greg Jones is a diminutive linebacker but has very good instincts and field sense. His ability to be in the right place at the right time makes him stand out from the pack.  If he aspires to having a career in the NFL, it will be important for him to become more aggressive in taking on blockers in run defense.

Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin (Sr): [6'7"/327 lbs]

This Wisconsin native has 36 career starts, including 13 as a red-shirt freshman. In that time, this big red giant has shown flashes of dominance, but this season he needs to show better consistency, as well as an ability to handle speed on the edge.

Why did Pete Carroll overlook his USC boys during the draft, in favor of  talented, yet unfamiliar athletes?

My initial reaction to Carroll overlooking his guys was that “he must not think that highly of his players.” We have heard Carroll sing the praises of players like Taylor Mays for several years, but when Carroll had to put his money where his mouth was, his actions spoke louder than his words ( please excuse my  excessive use of cliche’ phrases in that sentence).

Although I think there may be a grain of truth in there somewhere, there is a more savvy interpretation of Pete’s actions.    As a business with large monetary consequences for selecting certain players, the NFL is different than the NCAA. As an NFL coach, Pete Carroll can only afford to  select players with the best chance of helping his team.  The draft only grants a team approximately 7 picks, whereas the NCAA allows a school to recruit around 25 players per season. Missing on a prospect in college costs the school much less than a missed draft choice in the NFL.

I wholeheartedly believe that Pete Carroll likes his USC players, but many of his USC boys weren’t good values from a need and fit perspective.

Taylor Mays

The Seahawks were desperate for a safety, and they made it a priority to come away with one before the draft was over. USC safety Taylor Mays’ connection to Pete Carroll made a reunion in Seattle a likely possibility. However, Mays’ strong safety style of play, plus his general lack of ball skills would not fill the Seahawks dire need for a playmaking, ball hawking safety like the one they got in Earl Thomas.

Charles Brown

The left tackle prospect had loads of upside, but his ability to step into an NFL starting lineup was questionable at best.  Brown weighs in or around 290 pounds, and would have to get significantly stronger before his body would be ready to handle the stronger and bigger defensive ends in the league.

The Seahawks offensive line has been a sore spot for a sputtering offense. And the ‘Hawks needed to come away with an immediate starter.  From a value standpoint, the team picked an excellent prospect in Russell Okung- a player who should be able to contribute much more quickly than Charles Brown. Both the Earl Thomas pick and the Russell Okung selection were outstanding values. Pete Carroll swept up two of the highest rated players in the draft because they somehow managed to slip a few picks.  Okung was regarded by some as the top tackle prospect of the year, and they go him at #6 overall. Earl Thomas was rumored to go as early as #7 overall, and was arguably the best safety in this draft class.

Everson Griffen

Letting Griffen go to the 4th round was a real head scratcher.  The ‘Hawks could have packaged some trivial draft picks to move up 10 spots in the 4th round to get Everson Griffen. Defensive end is a big need, and Griffen would have brought considerably more athleticism to that front.   The lack of action on Carroll’s part does lead me to believe that he wasn’t too keen on bringing him to Seattle.  The guy has big-time potential. Perhaps Carroll knew him well enough to steer clear of Griffen and his emotional baggage?

Pete Carroll (NFL.com)

Seahawks with a foundation of USC products?

Based on the near-daily reports regarding the Seahawks trade talks for former USC players during free agency (Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart), plus the signings of Lendale White and Mike Williams, I thought it was a slam dunk that Carroll would be eyeing the opportunity to build his program with familiar names.

Every indication led me to believe that Carroll placed added value to players he recruited and coached for years- players he had known intimately.

To some degree that has been the case, but certainly not to the extent that I anticipated.

Often, coaches will recruit players they have priors with because it removes the risk factor that uncertainty brings, especially in the draft process. You see examples of this all the time in the NFL.

In Detroit, new coach Jim Schwartz went after former Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, OL Daniel Loper, and CB Eric King, while OC Scott Linehan insisted on bringing in Nate Burleson from Seattle.

In Denver, HC Josh McDaniels immediately tried to trade for his pupil from New England Matt Cassel. However, former co-worker  Scott Pioli jumped in front and picked up Patriots Mike Vrabel and Matt Cassel.

In the draft process, coaches and front offices will show a similar regard for players coming from coaches with whom they have a connection.

Bill Belichick has a strong bond with Florida head coach Urban Meyer, and this relationship of trust was evident in New England’s draft picks.   Second round picks Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes, as well as fourth rounder Aaron Hernandez all hail from the Sunshine State.

In essence, coaches and front office personnel place notable value on players with whom they have prior connections.  So why did Pete Carroll overlook his USC boys during the draft, in favor of  unfamiliar athletes?

Check on Monday or Tuesday to hear the answer!

Excluded from this list is the mock of Mike Mayock because I couldn’t find his final predictions (if anyone has that info, I would love to add it in).

Name	# of Correct Picks
Pro Football Weekly (Nolan Nawrocki)	10
**NFL Draft Blogger** (David Maziasz)	8
Sports Illustrated (Peter King)	8
Move The Sticks (Daniel Jeremiah)	6
NFL Draft Scout (Chad Reuter)	6
ESPN (Mel Kiper)	6
ESPN (Todd McShay)	5
Scout.com (Chris Steuber)	5
Walter Football (Matt McGuire)	5
NFL Draft Countdown (Scott Wright)	4

For simplicity, the results are based on number of selections which correctly predicted the player, team, and position.

Also, thanks to GhostWriter for sending me the results for Kiper and McShay.

Congratulations to all the mock drafters here. But especially Mr. Nawrocki, who produced the most accurate mock draft I could find. Every year, his predictions are very well-documented, and are an outstanding read for any draft fan.

I am also very pleased with how my mock fared as well. This year’s product appears to be among the most accurate of any mock draft found on the internet. I am just super excited that all my hard work paid off

Of the many surprises, several stood out more than the rest.

Ndamukong Suh drafted by Detroit Lions (NFL.com)

First, was the Jaguars selection of Tyson Alualu. Unless I am mistaken, nobody predicted that pick, and many people, including myself, thought he would not be in the first round at all. Perhaps, the Jaguars are looking to transition to a 34 front.  I figured they would go for Earl Thomas, but those Jags seem to beat to their own drum.

Undoubtedly, the second biggest surprise was the dynamic drop-off of Mel Kiper’s favorite player, Jimmy Clausen.   What was going on there?  I’m sure Todd McShay is gloating to Kiper because McShay had been warning us that this could happen. Perhaps, McShay will get to be on set next year, instead of the too-talkative Steve Young.

By the way, did anyone else who was watching the draft on ESPN think that Young talked too much, and Kiper too little?

Third big surprise was the Eagles trade up to get Brandon Graham.  I am a huge fan of Graham, and he absolutely deserves to go this high. But I didn’t think many teams felt the same way.

Fourth shocking event was the fact that Tim Tebow wound up getting a call from the Broncos at #25.   When the cameras switched to the Tebow party, somehow I thought he was celebrating in a room not unlike a dentist’s office.

The fifth surprise for me was the absence of Taylor Mays.  I guess all teams saw his lack of instincts and were afraid of taking him in the first round.

And the sixth thing that caught me off guard was how far Bryan Bulaga slipped.  Him going to Green Bay makes a lot of sense. But thought he would be scooped up no later than #9.

The final surprise was how aggressive the Detroit Lions have become in the Draft. They came away with two impact players in Suh and Jahvid Best.  If they had waited to see if Best was available at #34, I think they would have been disappointed.

Overall, I was very excited to watch the first round this year.  The new format was an excellent decision because it not only gives the GM’s a breather, but it also makes watching the Draft more palatable for fans. I look forward to more trades tomorrow!

2. Detroit Lions- DT Ndamukong Suh

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DT Gerald McCoy

4. Redskins- OT Trent Williams

5. Kansas City Chiefs- OT Bryan Bulaga

6. Seattle Seahawks- OT Russell Okung

7. Cleveland Browns- DB Eric Berry

8. Oakland Raiders-  OT Anthony Davis

9. Buffalo Bills- QB Jimmy Clausen

10. Jacksonville Jaguars-  DB Earl Thomas

11. Denver Broncos- WR Dez Bryant

12. Miami Dolphins- DE Derrick Morgan

13. San Francisco 49ers- RB C.J. Spiller

14. Seattle Seahawks- WR Demaryius Thomas

15. New York Giants- ILB Rolando McClain

16. Tennessee Titans- DE Jason Pierre-Paul

17. San Francisco 49ers- DE Brandon Graham

18. Pittsburgh Steelers-  C Maurkice Pouncey

19. Atlanta Falcons- LB Sean Weatherspoon

20. Houston Texans- CB Joe Haden

21. Cincinnati Bengals- TE Jermaine Gresham

22. New England Patriots- DE Jared Odrick

23. Green Bay Packers- DE Jerry Hughes

24. Philadelphia Eagles- OG Mike Iupati

25. Baltimore Ravens- DT Dan Williams

26. Arizona Cardinals-  OLB Sergio Kindle

27. Dallas Cowboys-  S Taylor Mays

28. San Diego Chargers- RB Ryan Matthews

29. New York Jets- RB Jahvid Best

30. Minnesota Vikings- CB Kareem Jackson

31. Indianapolis Colts- LT Charles Brown

32. New Orleans Saints- DE Everson Griffen

Here they are:

1. St Louis Rams- QB Sam Bradford,  DT Gerald McCoy, DT Ndamukong Suh

2. Detroit Lions- DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Gerald McCoy, OT Trent Williams, OT Russell Okung

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DT Gerald McCoy, DT Ndamukong Suh, DB Eric Berry

4. Redskins- OT Trent Williams, OT Russell Okung

5. Kansas City Chiefs- OT Bryan Bulaga, OT Russell Okung, DB Eric Berry

6. Seattle Seahawks- OT Russell Okung, OT Bryan Bulaga, OT Trent Williams

7. Cleveland Browns- DB Eric Berry, QB Jimmy Clausen, WR Dez Bryant

8. Oakland Raiders- OT Trent Williams, OT Anthony Davis, OT Bruce Campbell, QB Jimmy Clausen

9. Buffalo Bills- OT Bryan Bulaga, QB Jimmy Clausen, RB C.J. Spiller

10. Jacksonville Jaguars- DB Eric Berry, DB Earl Thomas, RB C.J. Spiller, CB Joe Haden, DE Derrick Morgan

11. Denver Broncos- WR Dez Bryant, CB Joe Haden, ILB Rolando McClain

12. Miami Dolphins- DE Derrick Morgan, OLB Sergio Kindle, DB Earl Thomas

13. San Francisco 49ers- RB C.J. Spiller, CB Joe Haden,

14. Seattle Seahawks- RB C.J. Spiller, WR Dez Bryant, DE Derrick Morgan, WR Demaryius Thomas

15. New York Giants- ILB Rolando McClain, TE Jermaine Gresham,

16. Tennessee Titans- DE Jason Pierre-Paul, CB Joe Haden, C Maurkice Pouncey

17. San Francisco 49ers- CB Joe Haden, DE Brandon Graham

18. Pittsburgh Steelers-  C Maurkice Pouncey, ILB Rolando McClain, OG Mike Iupati, DE Jared Odrick

19. Atlanta Falcons- LB Sean Weatherspoon, DE Jerry Hughes

20. Houston Texans- DE Jason Pierre-Paul, CB Joe Haden

21. Cincinnati Bengals- TE Jermaine Gresham, DE Everson Griffen

22. New England Patriots- DE Jared Odrick, RB Ryan Matthews

23. Green Bay Packers- DE Jerry Hughes, CB Kyle Wilson

24. Philadelphia Eagles- OG Mike Iupati, CB

25. Baltimore Ravens- DT Dan Williams, CB Kareem Jackson, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Demaryius Thomas,

26. Arizona Cardinals- NT Dan Williams, DE Jerry Hughes, OLB Sergio Kindle, TE Rob Gronkowski, NT Terrence Cody

27. Dallas Cowboys- OG Mike Iupati,  S Taylor Mays, OT Vladimir Ducasse

28. San Diego Chargers- RB Ryan Matthews, NT Terrence Cody

29. New York Jets- LB Sean Weatherspoon, WR Demaryius Thomas

30. Minnesota Vikings- CB, Kareem Jackson, CB Devin McCourty

31. Indianapolis Colts- LT Charles Brown, DT Brian Price

32. New Orleans Saints- DE Everson Griffen

-There is no conceivable way that Sam Bradford gets past the #1 overall pick.  Whether it’s St Louis or some other team, he is going here.

- RB Ryan Matthews is going to be an excellent pro.  He’s a faster, more elusive version of Knowshon Moreno.

-Rolando McClain could slip into the late teens or early twenties. Yes, he is very smart. But unless you are super speedy and hit like a freight

Rolando McClain should be ready for a slip on Thursday (NFL.com)

train, inside linebackers don’t get picked early.

-TCU DE Jerry Hughes could be the smoothest  3-4 OLB in this draft.

-The 49ers better take C.J. Spiller or else he will tear them apart (Seahawks pick right after the 49ers) for years.

-To me, Derrick Morgan is a good, not great player. I wouldn’t pick him until the late teens/early twenties.

-The high second round will be exceedingly valuable. Some quality 1st round talent will leak into these spots.

-A bunch of teams will be looking at Tim Tebow in the early second round. In fact, I think someone will trade up to get him in the beginning of the second round.

-Jared Odrick will be a hot commodity in the early twenties.  He is clearly the best 3-4 DE available.

Follow the link to find out who could be the top offensive tackle selected. It’s not who you think.

So feel free to check it out and let me know what me know what you think!

Click here to view David’s Draft Scenarios/Mock Draft

Up until the draft, I’d like to spend some time breaking down the mock draft picks within the Draft community in the hope that it may stimulate some quality discussion (or at least some good thoughts).

As a part of the first segment I will start by looking at the various picks assigned to the teams drafting in the 1-2 range (starting with St. Louis).  I’ll express why I think an individual is a good or bad fit for a given team.

#1  St. Louis Rams

Possible choices: Sam Bradford

After he successfully answered the nagging questions about his health, Sam Bradford has become the consensus #1 overall pick. Ever since I released my first mock draft, I figured that things would play out this way.  The Rams are desperate for a young quarterback to lead this team, especially after just releasing Marc Bulger. I won’t rehash things too much, but Bradford is the best quarterback prospect in the Draft, and is a legitimate top 5 selection. On many levels, it makes little sense to choose one of the DT’s over the game’s most important position.

#2 Detroit Lions

Possible choices: Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

My friend at Lions In Winter, Ty Schalter artfully explained why each of these players would or would not fit into the Lions system.

Suffice it to say, the Russell Okung selection was a knee-jerk lashing out against the under-appreciated LT Jeff Backus. In actuality, the Lions real hole existed at LG. If you add in the fact that they just patched that hole up by trading for a capable starter in Rob Sims, the selection of Okung makes even less sense. I will concede that selecting Okung (or Trent Williams) would give the Lions their future LT  once Backus retires, and it gives them additional flexibility and depth. They could have insurance for Gosder Cherilus if he continues to slump at RT, but that is still an exorbitant sum of money to hand out to a RT.

It is well known that LT provides considerably more positional value than a DT. But pass rushers are very valuable. Period. Ndamukong is not a 2-down run-stuffer. He is every bit a 3-down pass-rushing, run-stopping defensive lineman, which raises his value. I would agree that Okung should be the pick IF all things were equal. We aren’t considering apples to apples here.

Ndamukong Suh is considered the far superior prospect, and I don’t say that to take anything away from Okung. It’s just that Suh is a fantastic prospect. When you pay a player $40+ million, you have a faint hope that this player can be really special. In my estimation, Suh has a higher chance of being that kind of player.

The important key to drafting in the top 5 picks, as Mike Mayock says, is “to control value.” I believe Suh is the better value. His talent outweighs Okung’s positional value advantage.

The other possible target of the Lions is Gerald McCoy. I happen to believe he is not quite as good a fit as Suh for the Lions defense if you look at the defenses that both defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and head coach Jim Schwartz have run in the past.

For example, McCoy is a perfect fit for the Tampa Two defense, which relies almost exclusively on it’s front four to generate pressure, and thrives with a gap penetrating 3-technique such as McCoy. The Lions too would rely mainly on their defensive front to generate  a pass rush, but they are also have more duties in the run game. Gunther Cunningham likes to show different looks, and a scheme diverse player like Suh will allow him to create some unique packages to confuse opposing offenses.

Even so, I can’t argue strongly against McCoy because he is such an exceptional player.  But I’d rather have Suh, if I were the Lions.