Clausen- One And Done?

In the last several weeks, a whirlwind of rumors have surfaced regarding the quarterback position and the future of Jimmy Clausen with the Carolina Panthers.  Plenty of pundits have weighed in, some claiming inside sources who suggest that Carolina will take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert with the first overall pick.  In other instances,  evaluators have come to believe that both Gabbert and Newton have the  upside to warrant #1 consideration.

That’s a fair argument, right? Well, here are a few other points worth mentioning.

8 of the last 10 players selected first overall were quarterbacks.

Seems good so far.

How about pointing out that Carolina hired a new head coach to turn around this wayward franchise.  And this coach has done and said many things to suggest he is very serious about finding a franchise quarterback, including handing out playbooks for his top 3 QB candidates to study, so that he can test their ability to absorb an NFL offense.

Awesome, it’s only a matter of time, now!

One more thing, I left out one small, tiny, minuscule draft history fact.

In the last 20 years, no team has ever burned a 1st round pick on a QB after spending a first or second round pick at the position the previous Draft. No exceptions.

Wait……what?

When teams spend a high round pick on a QB, they seem to be very afraid to give up on him so soon. To do so, would be to admit failure. After all, Marty Hurney (GM) is still there, and he was the guy who drafted Clausen in the first place.

Then, why the QB smokescreen?

Teams love to play this game because it supposedly hides their true intentions.  In this case, it my belief that the Panthers want to build trade value, in order to satisfy other needs, like DT. Broadcasting an interest in the top QB’s could potentially lead other QB hungry franchises to fall for Carolina’s bluff.

As some of you may know, I am strong believer in looking at Draft history to help shed light on tendencies in this unpredictable game that we know and love.

Can’t wait until the Draft!

Matt Millen: Lions’ Bane

(View Millen Blueprints here)

In Detroit, the people love their sports. Star athletes like Barry Sanders and Isiah Thomas were and still are treated like kings. Few cities sport such a rich history and such a loyal fan base quite like Detroit (and Michigan as a whole).

If sports are so important in Detroit, you can only imagine how strongly the fans dislike Matt Millen: the one who built the worst performing product in NFL history. He unintentionally brought great shame upon an already suffering city.

The former Oakland Raiders, Redskins, and 49ers linebacker with four Super Bowls rings was asked by the Detroit Lions on a fateful day in 2001 to come on as President and CEO of the team. Beloved by the media as a brilliant commentator and TV analyst, Millen was at the time seen as a popular pick to help restore the roar to the city of Detroit, even though he had no prior front-office experience.

However, the next 7 years were not at all what anyone had expected from this football man.

Under his leadership, the Lions went 31-84, and completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history.  I had to sit and watch from afar as my beloved state of Michigan went through the national ridicule that can only be had by failing to win even a single game.

Millen’s failures in the Draft have become stuff of legend.  First round failures such as Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Joey Harrington turned a relatively decent team (in the 1990′s) into the laughing stock of the NFL.

Every football fan is aware that Millen had such an affinity for skill position players, such as wide receiver, that he wound up using four top 15 picks on that position alone.

Not only did Millen “strike out” on some picks, but he retired the side (to use a baseball term). Charles Rogers had severe character issues that resulted in him being arrested multiple times on drug-related charges. Mike Williams almost never saw the playing field partially because of some college issues related to his eligibility, and also because of injuries and a reported lack of effort.

But aside from his obvious mistakes, this is where studying Millen gets very interesting. At a glance, you may notice some very strange things about his draft history (found in his Draft Blueprints).

For the record, this article is not an attempt to justify his actions. But many of the complaints about him are unfounded and unfair. So I want to take a moment to analyze some ill-informed statements by the general public.

One of the main criticisms of Matt Millen by the Detroit faithful has been that he used too many picks on the offensive side of the ball. We were all clamoring for more defense.

I would be the first to confess being in this camp. In fact, it wasn’t until I had a lengthy conversation with Ty, author of The Lions In Winter blog, that I realized some startling observations about Millen’s drafts. Just after Martin Mayhew was hired as the Millen’s replacement, I became very excited to hear that there would be a renewed focus on the interior of the offense and defense; something I had convinced myself that Millen had wholely ignored.

If you thought the same, you’d be dead wrong.

I wasn’t alone when I said to myself prior to this year’s draft, we need to build through the trenches.  “Draft a lineman with that first pick.”  Lions’ beat writer for Mlive, Tom “Killer” Kowalski was clamoring the same thing. ‘Let’s do something Millen never did-draft some quality linemen to start off the new regime!’

Such selective memories we have, right?

I had blocked out the fact that Millen began by drafting LT Jeff Backus and C Dominic Raiola with his first two picks as head of the Lions.

Imagine my surprise to find out that Millen used exactly 30 picks on offense and 32 picks on defensive players.

Okay, so maybe Millen used about an equal number of picks on offense and defense. Perhaps he chose defensive players in the late rounds, and offense mainly in the early rounds.

Nope, that wasn’t the case either. Of his first day draft selections (rounds one and two), precisely ten players were chosen on each side of the ball.

Finally, Millen seemed to have followed conventional wisdom by selecting a balanced number of players on defense and offense, which has been a relatively common occurrence among the best drafters. His Draft Blueprints look very similar to those of the great evaluators.

I had a theory that his drafts would look structurally different on the most basic level (as shown in the Draft Blueprints). But his failures in the draft are more subtle.

A most disconcerting thought, perhaps Millen did many things right, but had the worst string of ill-fortune in the history of football.

A note of optimism for Lions fans: new GM Martin Mayhew really may have learned what not to do, by watching Matt Millen work. It seems he didn’t repeat Millen’s mistakes this draft when he chose an infusion of talent over need.  Maybe there is hope in Detroit after all!

Also, I think that analyzing the Draft Blueprints is a useful exercise, but it is rather incomplete. Therefore, I will be taking this study a step further by looking at the number of quality starters drafted by good and bad evaluators. Hopefully, that exercise will shed some light on why Millen’s drafts look so structurally similar to those of excellent talent evaluators like Bill Belichick and Bill Walsh.

An administrative note, if you want to learn more about how the Lions got into such a mess, then please check out Detroit Lions Fan 1979′s blog. He is writing a series of articles that compliment this Millen study nicely.

Getting Defensive: Kevin Colbert & Ozzie Newsome

(View Steelers & Ravens Draft Blueprints history here)

Despite their short-lived animosity, the perennial feud between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens has grown into one of the NFL’s premier rivalry matches because of the similar philosophies and strategies of the two teams. Separated by a mere 200 miles, the two defensive juggernauts have written the book on how to play defensive football.

Sports Illustrated wrote a fantastic piece on these two teams, revealing some incredible statistics:

Over the past 10 years the Ravens…and Steelers rank one and two in the NFL, respectively in total defense.

Below that, a chart displaying all the defensive categories shows the two teams own the top two spots in nearly every one of 16 defensive categories, including yards allowed per game, points per game, rushing defense, and passing defense.

Needless to say, such high praise intrigued me enough to create a Draft Blueprint for the current GM’s for Pittsburgh and Baltimore (you can find the Excel attachment at the top of this page).

But this I can say, his teams have fared extraordinarily well because of the talent he brings in on a early basis.  His most notable draft acquisitions include Lamarr Woodley, Casey Hampton, Plaxico Burress, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Ike Taylor, and Santonio Holmes. All but one of those players (Burress) can still be found on the roster.

As for Baltimore, GM Ozzie Newsome has been working in the front-office since the Ravens entered the league in 1996. He joined the team as a player personnel executive, and was promoted to GM in 2002. Since he had such an influence in draft decisions as personnel decisions, his tenure at that position is included in this report.

In the same SI article mentioned above, it states how Mr. Newsome used “10 of his first 14 picks on defensive players.”  He overloaded the defensive side of the ball with talent, and he was rewarded many times over with the 2000 Raven defense that ranks among the best of all-time.

Some of his notable players are Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Adalius Thomas, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.

I absolutely love watching the Ravens and Steelers play football. I think they play the game the way it should be played: physically, passionately, and with some ingenuity. If you feel the same way as I do, then we both have Kevin Colbert and Ozzie Newsome to thank for enriching the game that is so near and dear to us.

This concludes the Draft Blueprints coverage of the best teams in the NFL. Next post will examine an example of poor draft behavior, as demonstrated by the former Detroit Lions’ GM Matt Millen.

(View A.J. Smith Draft Blueprints here)

Over the past five years, we have known the San Diego Chargers to be an annual playoff contender. But they have most definitely not been that way for long.

In 2004, the Chargers had an ownership change, which led to the promotion of one of the scouting department executives to the prestigious GM position.  A.J. Smith was handed that position and immediately began to place his stamp on the organization in the pivotal ’04 Draft, where he managed to trade the number one overall pick (Eli Manning) to get Philip Rivers and several other draft picks for the future.

Since that time, MR. Smith has acquired high-caliber players such as Shawne Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, Marcus McNeil, Michael Turner, Shaun Phillips, and Eric Weddle.

For a former scout, it comes as no surprise to discover that Smith has built this team around the draft. Last I heard, somewhere around 20 of the team’s starters have come via the draft.
With that squad, San Diego has made a couple of runs deep into the playoffs. But they haven’t reached the championship yet. Who knows when they will go all the way?

(View Thompson Draft Blueprints here)

Green Bay Packers’ GM Ted Thompson has long been a stout champion of drafting best player available (BPA), regardless of need. To some people, this philosophy makes little sense. But considering how the draft is a crapshoot, you’re much less likely to get caught with your pants down that way.

Case in point being Thompson’s draft behavior in 2008. He drafted wide receiver Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round, even though Green Bay had one of the most potent receiving tandems in the league. Furthermore, Thompson selected two more quarterbacks when Aaron Rodgers  (and technically, Brett Favre too) was on the roster.

Some of the more notable picks made since Thompson’s arrival are A.J. Hawk (OLB), Aaron Rodgers (QB), Greg Jennings (WR), and Nick Collins (FS). Interestingly, some of the team’s most successful players have been a result of Thompson’s excellent eye for talent in the later rounds of the draft.

But before I make this man out as being infallible, I must say, for every success, there’s been a bust. And I know that any Packers fan will be quick to remind me how much a failure former 1st round DT Justin Harrell has been. Under the Ted Thompson regime, Harrell has been perhaps the largest whiff by the front-office.

Characteristic of any value-driven GM, Thompson has become famous for being active on draft day, trading down to gain additional picks.

Despite his good track record, Thompson’s habits come across as arrogant and sometimes stupid. I have talked with several Packers fans who are less than happy with the way the Packers draft. But somehow, big Ted puts together a quality team that was a hop, skip, and a jump from the Super bowl 2 years ago.

And finally, the reason he makes this list is for his emphasis on building the team through the draft, which inevitably means that the vast majority of the squad came through this method.

Secrets of a Belichick Draft

(View Belichick Draft Blueprints here)

The salary cap era of professional football has produced no finer mastermind than New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. While owners such as Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys have struggled mightily under the financial restrictions of salary caps, Belichick seems to adapt and grow the Patriots’ rule over the NFL, which is the closest thing to a dynasty since the Cowboys of the 1990′s.

Since his inception in 2000, Belichick has coached the Patriots to three Superbowl championships, and four appearances. His 2007 team became the first team to go without a regular season loss since the days of Dan Marino.

Despite the kind of success that merits consideration as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest coach of all-time, his name invokes strong emotional reactions among the masses because of his oft misunderstood personality, and for his scandalous Spygate incident.

However much you may love or loathe him, there is no denying his ability to mold raw talent into a highly competitive team.

Please click here (Bill Walsh Draft Blueprints) to view the attachment of the complete study on Walsh’s draft history.

Few coaches can boast that they invented the offense that they run. San Francisco 49ers coach Bill Walsh could claim such high praise. During his tenure in the Golden State, he  invented the West Coast offensive scheme, winning three Superbowls on his way to the Hall of Fame.

I want to note Walsh’s supreme understanding of the intricacies of the NFL Draft. This knowledge allowed him to produce some of the richest draft classes in history. His most noteworthy draft came in 1986, a pivotal year in the franchise.  In that year, Walsh desperately needed to replenish his roster, and replenish the roster he did, indeed.  By masterfully trading for additional picks, Walsh ended up with 13 draft selections, and made all of them count. The players acquired that year allowed San Francisco to maintain league dominance for many more years. For this reason, the 49ers’ 1986 draft will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

CBSsports.com and NFL.com provided the raw data for this study.

Please click here (Parcells Draft Blueprints) to view the attachment of the complete study on Parcells’ draft history.

Perhaps one of the most colorful personalities of the modern football era, Bill Parcells has become known as a savior of horrific franchises. When others have failed, he somehow has the Midas touch and sprinkles some of his magic on every organization in which he has been involved.
His first shot as a head coach in the NFL came in 1983, working with the hapless New York Giants. The previous ten years had produced only one winning season. However, Parcells showed his quality chiefly in the draft, where he showed a keen eye for talent. Within three years, his Giants had won the first of their two Superbowls during Parcells reign.
A decade later, Bill left the success in New York to

[take] over a weak New England team, which had gone 2-14 the year before he arrived. There he had quickly begun to work his specialty: the quick rehabilitation of teams embedded near the bottom of the standings.  In 1993, New England went to 5-11, and in 1994, 10-6. (David Halberstam, The Education Of A Coach)

After New England, Parcells took his talents to the New York Jets, helping make them perennial playoff contenders before leaving for his final coaching destination in Dallas.

2006 became the legendary coach’s final season before hanging up his spurs. But he became restless and took the job as Executive for the Miami Dolphins. In only one year, he turned that outfit from the worst in the league (1-15), into AFC East division champs. He still holds that position to this day.

How to Build a Championship Team

About 8 months ago, I was sitting at my work computer thinking “why are the Detroit Lions so incredibly bad?”

This question led me to two more fundamental questions: “how do the great front office executives draft? Do they draft certain positions at certain times, and how frequently do they draft those positions?”

Little did I know that these seemingly simple questions would lead me to create this blog!

So, I identified men who built great teams, both past and present, and came up with this list of eight names:

• Bill Polian, former executive of Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers. Current president of Indianapolis Colts.
• Bill Parcells, former head coach of New York Giants, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys. Current executive for Miami Dolphins.
• Bill Walsh, former head coach of San Francisco 49ers.
• Bill Belichick, current head coach of New England Patriots
• Ted Thompson, current GM for Green Bay Packers
• A.J. Smith, current GM of San Diego Chargers
• Kevin Colbert, current GM for Pittsburgh Steelers
• Ozzie Newsome, current GM of Baltimore Ravens

I broke down every draft pick by round and player position, and put it onto a series of Excel spreadsheets. I used NFL.com’s draft history section to help with this study.

Today, I have Bill Polian’s draft history, which will begin the Draft Blueprint series.

For those of you who might be unfamiliar with Polian, here is an excerpt from Wikipedia on him:

Bill Polian is the President of the Indianapolis Colts NFL team. He rose to league prominence as the General Manager of the Buffalo Bills, building a team that participated in four straight Super Bowls. Following his stint in Buffalo, Polian went on to become the General Manager of the expansion Carolina Panthers, where his initial success in building what was arguably the most rapidly successful expansion team in NFL history led to his moving on to the Colts. He has won the NFL’s Executive of the Year award 5 times (1988, 1991, 1995, 1996, and 1999).

I hope you enjoy the series!

I wanted to know how many of these elite high school athletes become highly sought after in the National Football League. Furthermore, I wanted to test my hypothesis that the top 10 Rivals100 players should be more likely to land in the NFL than the next 10 players, and so on so forth. Basically, of all the Rivals100, the top 10 should produce the greatest number of NFL draft picks, while the players at the bottom 10 of the list should have the least chance. Not only should the top Rivals players have the greatest frequency of being drafted, but they should be chosen higher than their peers, as well.

Methods

The pool of players in this study includes 5 years worth of Rivals100 lists ( a total of 500 players). As mentioned before, I examined how many Rivals players were selected in round 1 or 2 of the Draft.  To evaluate the relationship between Rivals100 status and draft value, the Rivals100 is broken down into 10 groups of 50 players. So, this means that over the 5 years of the study, each group of 10 in the Rivals100  (1-10, 11-20, 21-20, etc) will have a total of 50 players.

How to Read the Tables

Each table below presents exactly the same data, only the first uses raw numbers, and the second uses percentages. To make sure you read the tables correctly, here is how the first line of table 1 reads:

“Of the 50 players ranked 1-10 in Rivals100, 2 of them became 2nd rounders, 16 were 1st rounders, and of those 16 1st rounders, 11 of them were top 10 picks.”

The second table reads like so:

“Of the 50 players ranked 1-10 in Rivals100, 4% of them became 2nd rounders, 32% were 1st rounders, and 22% of the 50 players were top 10 picks.”

[TABLE=8]

[TABLE=9]

Results

Of all the classes of 10, the top 10 players in the Rivals100 were over than three times more likely to become first round draft choices (32%), and over five times more likely to become top 10 draft selections (22%). But overall, my hypothesis was ultimately incorrect. Each respective group of 10 did not yield fewer and fewer NFL draftees. In fact, the bottom 10 produced more 1st rounders than 11-20.

Here are a few final observations from the data:

-in all but one year, the top 2 players in the Rivals100 became 1st round picks. The only time where that was not true happened to be in 2006. Derrick Williams (Penn State) and Patrick Turner (USC) were drafted, but not in the top two rounds.

-Rivals100 completely overlooked certain players such as Jake Long (LT from Michigan, who became the number 1 pick in the 2008 draft.

It is worth noting that a handful of players did not appear in this study because they were not chosen in the top 2 rounds. One prime example was Eric Winston (OG for the Texans), who happens to be one of the best at his position.

*To see enlarged versions of the two graphs above, just click on them!

Conclusion

I have to say that the main conclusion from this study is that the Rivals does a good job at predicting future success of their top 10 Rivals100 players. But outside of that, the correlation weakens considerably.