Designing a mock draft can be a daunting task because of the breadth and depth of knowledge required to create a good one. Some draft projections make a well-read fan shake their head in disbelief. While other more creative mock drafts can stimulate excellent discourse.
Up until the draft, I’d like to spend some time breaking down the mock draft picks within the Draft community in the hope that it may stimulate some quality discussion (or at least some good thoughts).
As a part of the first segment I will start by looking at the various picks assigned to the teams drafting in the 1-2 range (starting with St. Louis). I’ll express why I think an individual is a good or bad fit for a given team.
#1 St. Louis Rams
Possible choices: Sam Bradford
After he successfully answered the nagging questions about his health, Sam Bradford has become the consensus #1 overall pick. Ever since I released my first mock draft, I figured that things would play out this way. The Rams are desperate for a young quarterback to lead this team, especially after just releasing Marc Bulger. I won’t rehash things too much, but Bradford is the best quarterback prospect in the Draft, and is a legitimate top 5 selection. On many levels, it makes little sense to choose one of the DT’s over the game’s most important position.
#2 Detroit Lions
Possible choices: Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy
My friend at Lions In Winter, Ty Schalter artfully explained why each of these players would or would not fit into the Lions system.
Suffice it to say, the Russell Okung selection was a knee-jerk lashing out against the under-appreciated LT Jeff Backus. In actuality, the Lions real hole existed at LG. If you add in the fact that they just patched that hole up by trading for a capable starter in Rob Sims, the selection of Okung makes even less sense. I will concede that selecting Okung (or Trent Williams) would give the Lions their future LT once Backus retires, and it gives them additional flexibility and depth. They could have insurance for Gosder Cherilus if he continues to slump at RT, but that is still an exorbitant sum of money to hand out to a RT.
It is well known that LT provides considerably more positional value than a DT. But pass rushers are very valuable. Period. Ndamukong is not a 2-down run-stuffer. He is every bit a 3-down pass-rushing, run-stopping defensive lineman, which raises his value. I would agree that Okung should be the pick IF all things were equal. We aren’t considering apples to apples here.
Ndamukong Suh is considered the far superior prospect, and I don’t say that to take anything away from Okung. It’s just that Suh is a fantastic prospect. When you pay a player $40+ million, you have a faint hope that this player can be really special. In my estimation, Suh has a higher chance of being that kind of player.
The important key to drafting in the top 5 picks, as Mike Mayock says, is “to control value.” I believe Suh is the better value. His talent outweighs Okung’s positional value advantage.
The other possible target of the Lions is Gerald McCoy. I happen to believe he is not quite as good a fit as Suh for the Lions defense if you look at the defenses that both defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and head coach Jim Schwartz have run in the past.
For example, McCoy is a perfect fit for the Tampa Two defense, which relies almost exclusively on it’s front four to generate pressure, and thrives with a gap penetrating 3-technique such as McCoy. The Lions too would rely mainly on their defensive front to generate a pass rush, but they are also have more duties in the run game. Gunther Cunningham likes to show different looks, and a scheme diverse player like Suh will allow him to create some unique packages to confuse opposing offenses.
Even so, I can’t argue strongly against McCoy because he is such an exceptional player. But I’d rather have Suh, if I were the Lions.
