Archive for January 19th, 2010

On Thursday, April 22nd, we will gather together to witness the NFL Draft, appearing for the first time on prime time television. But assuredly, this will be a special occasion for yet another reason, an event which has been seen only once before, back in 1970. Barring catastrophe, two defensive tackles should join the elite, counting themselves among the rare few to be chosen in the top 5 of the NFL Draft.
These two fine players have waged a proverbial war in the trenches all season to be considered not only the best at their position, but the finest prospect of 2010. We all are familiar with the aptly-named Ndamukong Suh, who left an indelible impression on all who watched him almost single handedly throttle Texas in the Big 12 Championship game. But his peer, Gerald Mccoy, has quietly garnered attention from NFL evaluators for his talent for disruption.

What most people may not realize is just how little separates these two, a race that may not be concluded until negotiation time, just days before the Draft begins.

So, let’s take a closer look, shall we?

Ndamukong Suh’s rise to the top has been meteoric, to say the least. In August, all but the most astute were aware of the lineman from Nebraska. Seven months later, he is a household name, and the people’s choice for number 1 overall to the St. Louis Rams. His well-deserved reputation in most circles is such that it is quite uncommon to hear someone try to find holes in his game.  I mean think about it, the guy finished the season with 12.5 sacks, and led his team in tackles…as a defensive tackle, for crying out loud! All this led to him earning consensus 1st team All-American honors as well as being invited to the Heisman Trophy award ceremony, which hasn’t honored a defensive lineman this way since Warren Sapp. In addition to this high honor, Suh came away with virtually every other award imaginable: the Lombardi Trophy, Outland Trophy, Bednarik Award, and the distinguished Nagurski Trophy for defensive player of the year.

All the buzz and awards seem to point to the obvious fact that Ndamukong Suh will be the number #1 pick of the draft. The majority of draft sites, including high profile sites like ESPN, NFLdraftscout, and Scout.com consider Suh to be the best defensive lineman available in this draft. But in NFL circles, another name is thought to be more deserving of that spot.

Pro Football Weekly’s draft writer Nolan Nawrocki recently published his evaluation of the top underclassmen in the draft. And although I don’t endorse the order of some of his picks, his reasoning regarding one player in particular is quite intriguing:

1. Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy — A strong, disruptive, explosive inside rusher who has been dominating the college football scene since he stepped onto the field, McCoy has warranted higher grades from NFL evaluators than Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and stands a legitimate chance to be the first overall pick in the NFL draft.

Gerald McCoy earned the respect of scouts early on in his career, to a point where he could have declared for the draft as a redshirt sophomore and still would have been considered a top 15 pick. However, he came back to school to earn his degree, and to improve his abilities for one more year. His production was more modest than Suh’s, recording 6 sacks and 32 tackles this season. He was a finalist for the Lombardi Award and earned 1st or 2nd team All-American depending on which source you look at.

This begs the question, how can Gerald McCoy still be considered a better pro prospect by NFL scouts than Ndamukong Suh? The answer is concealed within the game tape.

First of all, McCoy is viewed as a very polished, true 3-technique penetrator. He is very violent and extremely disruptive, slipping off blocks like water on rock.  He has solid character, works extremely hard, and is surprisingly durable.  And at 6’4, 295 (with a frame to hold more weight) he possesses the wide girth necessary to hold up in the interior. Most importantly, even though he doesn’t always make the big play himself, McCoy affects plays with frightening regularity, which is perhaps the number one reason why scouts love him.

In comparison, Suh is an extremely powerful player with great quickness and superior balance. He has been unblockable at times, even against double teams. Nevertheless, he is viewed as a somewhat raw prospect compared to McCoy because his form of dominance in the college game may not work nearly as well in the pros. His natural abilities are so great that he has been dominant at the college level without having to develop much of a pass rush repertoire. He relies too heavily on his strength, which could cause some problems when trying to acclimate to the pro game. In the NFL, strength alone is almost never enough to make a player great unless you’re a revolutionary player (which Suh could be). The offensive linemen are simply too powerful for a one-trick pony to beat consistently, especially one who weighs less than 300 pounds (and could very well weigh in around 285-290 at the Scouting Combine).  At best, he is going to need some coaching at the next level to learn how to beat linemen in other ways. In the worst case, he might be asked to make a position change to end, where he probably could be a dominant force just like Richard Seymour. If teams believe he can successfully make that position switch, thus playing at a level not unlike Richard Seymour, then his awesome value remains in tact.

I just can’t get that Big 12 Championship game out of my head. Gerald McCoy never was able to single handedly control a game like that.

Suh absolutely took over that game in a way that I have never seen before from an interior lineman. That is the tantalizing upside to which I previously referred.  My only question about that game is whether he can do such a thing consistently at the next level, because those Texas interior linemen had been a weakness for the Longhorns all season.

Ultimately, we have to factor circumstances into why McCoy may be selected over Suh. The first four teams in this draft (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Washington) all run 4-3 defenses, which seems to favor McCoy. And now that we know the powers that be believe that Gerald McCoy has better realized ability than Ndamukong Suh as a defensive tackle prospect, it seems all is working in his favor right now. Suh’s potential may be greater, but his NFL readiness isn’t near that of McCoy.  And like it or not, that matters in this league. But can a team justifiably pass on potentially the can’t miss player of the decade?  Because that carries some weight, too.

Based on your experience, who is the better  pro prospect and why?