Recently, I was having a conversation with my friend Ty, author of The Lions in Winter blog, shooting the breeze about Lions-related news and some Draft morsels. I told him about how I’ve been calculating strength of schedule for several of the league’s bottom feeders. He pointed out to me, the latest buzz about the draft is all about which team will get Ndamukong Suh. I’ve peeked around NFL fan forums and draft message boards to confirm this statement, and it most certainly is the case.
So here’s the truth. Week 15 of the NFL regular season has changed everything.
Before this week, there were 3 teams with a decent shot at getting Suh. Tampa Bay was holding the number 1 draft spot, until they smothered the Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland was nipping at their heels with the number 3 slot. However, both teams miraculously won their games, thus pushing them both behind Detroit. Now, the draft order should look like this:
- St. Louis Rams
- Detroit Lions
- Tampa Bay Bucs
- Cleveland Browns
In order for the Lions to maintain this number 2 draft slot, they must maintain a weaker strength of schedule than the Bucs. Considering that the Lions have a nine game advantage over the Bucs with only two weeks remaining, it seems likely that Detroit will be selecting ahead of Tampa in April.
Right now, here is how each team stands in strength of schedule in terms of win-loss record:
Detroit Lions opponents: 115-108 (0.51570 %)
Tampa Bay Bucs opponents: 124-98 (0.55856 %)
Finally, the main reason that Detroit will land Suh in the draft is because St. Louis should be drafting a QB with the number 1 overall pick. This is a quarterback-driven league, and although the Rams need to upgrade their pass rush, they will decide to replace Marc Bulger with a young signal caller.
The only way that I see Detroit passing up Suh is if they are given a blockbuster deal worth at least two 1st round picks, and will allow the Lions to pick outside the top 10 for once.
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