What’s the Point?

Sports have become such a large industry in the U.S that we have several television channels, hundreds of magazines, newspaper sections, and Internet websites devoted solely to feeding the fire of information that the public so desperately craves. But have we allowed our appetite to become so large that we will read any worthless article regardless of it’s quality?

The Internet is stock full of useless information, and the NFL (draft) community is no different. Once a fun, yet educational tool, most mock drafts have become about as useless as wiping before you drop a log.

Making an accurate mock draft in April is already a daunting task. Conjuring up an accurate mock before the college or professional football season starts is an unimaginably difficult task for even the most football-savvy person.

For starters, there is no way of knowing the exact draft order until February, when the Superbowl is decided.  Until then, one can only guess the order by examining team schedules and trends. I am making a big deal about draft order because of how central it is to the Draft in the eyes of franchises. Owning the 1st pick versus the 2nd can be the difference between selecting Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

Furthermore, player analysis before the end of the college football season is based mainly around hype. The draft eligible players have not yet produced a full body of work. Players often only have about two seasons of experience as  starters before the leave college. As a talent evaluator, assessing a player based on one or two of their best college years is both unfair to the player and unwise on part of the evaluator. Especially in their younger years, consider how much difference a year can make in the development of a player. And what about those nasty injuries and off-the-field incidents that can ruin the hopes of these gifted athletes?

Premature evaluations occur all the time in these early mock drafts. I recall a very popular draft site by the name of Draftcountdown.com, which produced a mock draft early in the football season. The site owner, Scott Wright had South Carolina OT Jamon Meredith going in the first round, when in fact he ended up going in the fifth round this April.

If things were not complicated enough by having to evaluate players using limited information, early mock drafts have to project which Juniors are likely to declare for the draft once the season ends. Last season everyone predicted Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Mays, Jermaine Gresham, and others would be early entrants in the 2009 Draft. Imagine how much different a mock draft would look if these players were included. Mock drafts are so delicate that missing on one instance can drastically affect the rest of the simulation. If a mock draft includes five or ten ineligible players, the thing is nearly worthless.

To prove my point, take a look at one of the few early mock drafts that haven’t been “conveniently” erased from draft site archives. This particular one was created by Todd McShay of ESPN just after the 2008 draft:

McShay 2009 Mock Draft

A few things that stood out from the example.  Only ten of the thirty two players included in that mock actually were chosen in the first round; seven players did not enter the draft; two players ended up going in the 7th round; and the number one overall pick, Fili Moala actually was drafted in the 2nd round. No surprise that McShay didn’t correctly line up the player, team, and draft number in even one instance.

Not to throw dirt on an open wound, but those issues only relate to the college portion of draft evaluation. The other side of the equation deals with the goings on in the NFL: team needs and free agency. And how can even the most astute evaluator predict team needs before new additions to the team have had a chance to show their quality?

Subsequently, this extremely important ingredient in the mock draft is laughably overlooked. Mock drafters pretty much look at the remaining team needs that were not addressed during the draft or free agency. For example, if defensive end wasn’t filled via either of those methods, the mock drafter will place that as the highest priority for the next season. There is some credence to this methodology, but it is incomplete. For it fails to account any holes that may develop over the course of the season.  Team needs are constantly changing, and ranking them in order of urgency is a very complicated process.

Because mock drafting is an extremely difficult even a week before the Draft, why would anyone bother to spend time creating such a load of rubbish?

My best answer to that question reiterates what I said earlier. The bombardment of sports information has dulled our desire for quality. That desire has been usurped by a craving for quantity of information, no matter how worthless it is.

Please, do yourself a favor, don’t spend too much time reading mock drafts made at this time of year unless you’re only seeking a good laugh.

It makes you wonder, what has become the motivation behind mock drafts? Is it still the noble goal of educating the reader, or has it become yet another way to pass the time?