What Separates the Men from the Boys

About two days ago, I was perusing one of my favorite sites (MgoBlog) to find some good tidbits for an upcoming article when I came across the site’s forum, which is just like any other forum in that it is full of impassioned speculation on the part of the contributors. Go patrol a football forum, and it won’t be longer than a few minutes before you stumble upon a thread that looks something like this:  “player “x” a first round pick?”

The thread creator will make a short argument for the player, and then other members will sound off in agreement.  Others (A.K.A the trolls/grouches) will slam everything that doesn’t reinforce their own opinions. And a few well-informed members will inject some logic back into the conversation, which by now has turned into a screaming match between the “trolls” and the supporters.

This type of talk got me thinking about how little information exists on the Internet regarding the criteria teams use to determine what round a player will be drafted. This lack of information amongst the masses leads to errant guesses about where player “x” will be drafted.

And traditionally at this time of year, fans will be guessing about when their favorite players will be drafted more than Paris Hilton on Jeopardy.

So in the interest of making you more educated on all things NFL Draft, here are some basic truths (though far from exhaustive) that should come in handy when curiosity takes hold and you put your two bits in on a forum.

Here are five things that separate the men (early round draft choices) from the boys (late rounders):

• Early rounders have the three P’s- Physique, potential, and production.  The earlier the pick, the closer the player is to the ideal in each of these categories.  These guys have the prototypical size (which will be covered on a later date), their potential for growing into impact players must be high, and their ability to translate their physical gifts (measurables) and potential into tangible results has to be visible in their college production.
• Early rounders (especially 1st rounders)  are expected to be ready to start in their rookie season. Ask yourself, is player “x” polished enough to beat out some veterans? Outside of WR and QB, DE, and 3-4 defensive OLB, most players should be ready to contribute day 1.
• The earlier a player is chosen, the readier they are to get on the field. Players taken in later rounds are expected to take considerable time before making an impact (if they ever are able to do so).
• Contrary to what I used to think, players available in the late rounds (5-7) are still quality athletes. They might just lack one or two of the 3 P’s. In other words, these players appear to be one-dimensional. For instance, linebackers like 7th rounder Zach Follett are thought to be either special teamers or two-down run stuffers. They lack the versatility of every-down players.
• Last of all, early rounders (1st rounders) are the flashiest, most hyped players in any draft. That is why I actually like the 2nd round players more. The 2nd rounders are usually very productive college players, have good measurables, provide great money value, and are just solid football players without the hype.

Note: None of these anecdotes are hard and fast rules, but rather general truths.