Archive for June, 2009

What Separates the Men from the Boys

About two days ago, I was perusing one of my favorite sites (MgoBlog) to find some good tidbits for an upcoming article when I came across the site’s forum, which is just like any other forum in that it is full of impassioned speculation on the part of the contributors. Go patrol a football forum, and it won’t be longer than a few minutes before you stumble upon a thread that looks something like this:  “player “x” a first round pick?”

The thread creator will make a short argument for the player, and then other members will sound off in agreement.  Others (A.K.A the trolls/grouches) will slam everything that doesn’t reinforce their own opinions. And a few well-informed members will inject some logic back into the conversation, which by now has turned into a screaming match between the “trolls” and the supporters.

This type of talk got me thinking about how little information exists on the Internet regarding the criteria teams use to determine what round a player will be drafted. This lack of information amongst the masses leads to errant guesses about where player “x” will be drafted.

And traditionally at this time of year, fans will be guessing about when their favorite players will be drafted more than Paris Hilton on Jeopardy.

So in the interest of making you more educated on all things NFL Draft, here are some basic truths (though far from exhaustive) that should come in handy when curiosity takes hold and you put your two bits in on a forum.

Here are five things that separate the men (early round draft choices) from the boys (late rounders):

• Early rounders have the three P’s- Physique, potential, and production.  The earlier the pick, the closer the player is to the ideal in each of these categories.  These guys have the prototypical size (which will be covered on a later date), their potential for growing into impact players must be high, and their ability to translate their physical gifts (measurables) and potential into tangible results has to be visible in their college production.
• Early rounders (especially 1st rounders)  are expected to be ready to start in their rookie season. Ask yourself, is player “x” polished enough to beat out some veterans? Outside of WR and QB, DE, and 3-4 defensive OLB, most players should be ready to contribute day 1.
• The earlier a player is chosen, the readier they are to get on the field. Players taken in later rounds are expected to take considerable time before making an impact (if they ever are able to do so).
• Contrary to what I used to think, players available in the late rounds (5-7) are still quality athletes. They might just lack one or two of the 3 P’s. In other words, these players appear to be one-dimensional. For instance, linebackers like 7th rounder Zach Follett are thought to be either special teamers or two-down run stuffers. They lack the versatility of every-down players.
• Last of all, early rounders (1st rounders) are the flashiest, most hyped players in any draft. That is why I actually like the 2nd round players more. The 2nd rounders are usually very productive college players, have good measurables, provide great money value, and are just solid football players without the hype.

Note: None of these anecdotes are hard and fast rules, but rather general truths.

Matt Millen: Lions’ Bane

(View Millen Blueprints here)

In Detroit, the people love their sports. Star athletes like Barry Sanders and Isiah Thomas were and still are treated like kings. Few cities sport such a rich history and such a loyal fan base quite like Detroit (and Michigan as a whole).

If sports are so important in Detroit, you can only imagine how strongly the fans dislike Matt Millen: the one who built the worst performing product in NFL history. He unintentionally brought great shame upon an already suffering city.

The former Oakland Raiders, Redskins, and 49ers linebacker with four Super Bowls rings was asked by the Detroit Lions on a fateful day in 2001 to come on as President and CEO of the team. Beloved by the media as a brilliant commentator and TV analyst, Millen was at the time seen as a popular pick to help restore the roar to the city of Detroit, even though he had no prior front-office experience.

However, the next 7 years were not at all what anyone had expected from this football man.

Under his leadership, the Lions went 31-84, and completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history.  I had to sit and watch from afar as my beloved state of Michigan went through the national ridicule that can only be had by failing to win even a single game.

Millen’s failures in the Draft have become stuff of legend.  First round failures such as Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Joey Harrington turned a relatively decent team (in the 1990’s) into the laughing stock of the NFL.

Every football fan is aware that Millen had such an affinity for skill position players, such as wide receiver, that he wound up using four top 15 picks on that position alone.

Not only did Millen “strike out” on some picks, but he retired the side (to use a baseball term). Charles Rogers had severe character issues that resulted in him being arrested multiple times on drug-related charges. Mike Williams almost never saw the playing field partially because of some college issues related to his eligibility, and also because of injuries and a reported lack of effort.

But aside from his obvious mistakes, this is where studying Millen gets very interesting. At a glance, you may notice some very strange things about his draft history (found in his Draft Blueprints).

For the record, this article is not an attempt to justify his actions. But many of the complaints about him are unfounded and unfair. So I want to take a moment to analyze some ill-informed statements by the general public.

One of the main criticisms of Matt Millen by the Detroit faithful has been that he used too many picks on the offensive side of the ball. We were all clamoring for more defense.

I would be the first to confess being in this camp. In fact, it wasn’t until I had a lengthy conversation with Ty, author of The Lions In Winter blog, that I realized some startling observations about Millen’s drafts. Just after Martin Mayhew was hired as the Millen’s replacement, I became very excited to hear that there would be a renewed focus on the interior of the offense and defense; something I had convinced myself that Millen had wholely ignored.

If you thought the same, you’d be dead wrong.

I wasn’t alone when I said to myself prior to this year’s draft, we need to build through the trenches.  “Draft a lineman with that first pick.”  Lions’ beat writer for Mlive, Tom “Killer” Kowalski was clamoring the same thing. ‘Let’s do something Millen never did-draft some quality linemen to start off the new regime!’

Such selective memories we have, right?

I had blocked out the fact that Millen began by drafting LT Jeff Backus and C Dominic Raiola with his first two picks as head of the Lions.

Imagine my surprise to find out that Millen used exactly 30 picks on offense and 32 picks on defensive players.

Okay, so maybe Millen used about an equal number of picks on offense and defense. Perhaps he chose defensive players in the late rounds, and offense mainly in the early rounds.

Nope, that wasn’t the case either. Of his first day draft selections (rounds one and two), precisely ten players were chosen on each side of the ball.

Finally, Millen seemed to have followed conventional wisdom by selecting a balanced number of players on defense and offense, which has been a relatively common occurrence among the best drafters. His Draft Blueprints look very similar to those of the great evaluators.

I had a theory that his drafts would look structurally different on the most basic level (as shown in the Draft Blueprints). But his failures in the draft are more subtle.

A most disconcerting thought, perhaps Millen did many things right, but had the worst string of ill-fortune in the history of football.

A note of optimism for Lions fans: new GM Martin Mayhew really may have learned what not to do, by watching Matt Millen work. It seems he didn’t repeat Millen’s mistakes this draft when he chose an infusion of talent over need.  Maybe there is hope in Detroit after all!

Also, I think that analyzing the Draft Blueprints is a useful exercise, but it is rather incomplete. Therefore, I will be taking this study a step further by looking at the number of quality starters drafted by good and bad evaluators. Hopefully, that exercise will shed some light on why Millen’s drafts look so structurally similar to those of excellent talent evaluators like Bill Belichick and Bill Walsh.

An administrative note, if you want to learn more about how the Lions got into such a mess, then please check out Detroit Lions Fan 1979’s blog. He is writing a series of articles that compliment this Millen study nicely.

Getting Defensive: Kevin Colbert & Ozzie Newsome

(View Steelers & Ravens Draft Blueprints history here)

Despite their short-lived animosity, the perennial feud between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens has grown into one of the NFL’s premier rivalry matches because of the similar philosophies and strategies of the two teams. Separated by a mere 200 miles, the two defensive juggernauts have written the book on how to play defensive football.

Sports Illustrated wrote a fantastic piece on these two teams, revealing some incredible statistics:

Over the past 10 years the Ravens…and Steelers rank one and two in the NFL, respectively in total defense.

Below that, a chart displaying all the defensive categories shows the two teams own the top two spots in nearly every one of 16 defensive categories, including yards allowed per game, points per game, rushing defense, and passing defense.

Needless to say, such high praise intrigued me enough to create a Draft Blueprint for the current GM’s for Pittsburgh and Baltimore (you can find the Excel attachment at the top of this page).

But this I can say, his teams have fared extraordinarily well because of the talent he brings in on a early basis.  His most notable draft acquisitions include Lamarr Woodley, Casey Hampton, Plaxico Burress, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Ike Taylor, and Santonio Holmes. All but one of those players (Burress) can still be found on the roster.

As for Baltimore, GM Ozzie Newsome has been working in the front-office since the Ravens entered the league in 1996. He joined the team as a player personnel executive, and was promoted to GM in 2002. Since he had such an influence in draft decisions as personnel decisions, his tenure at that position is included in this report.

In the same SI article mentioned above, it states how Mr. Newsome used “10 of his first 14 picks on defensive players.”  He overloaded the defensive side of the ball with talent, and he was rewarded many times over with the 2000 Raven defense that ranks among the best of all-time.

Some of his notable players are Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Adalius Thomas, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.

I absolutely love watching the Ravens and Steelers play football. I think they play the game the way it should be played: physically, passionately, and with some ingenuity. If you feel the same way as I do, then we both have Kevin Colbert and Ozzie Newsome to thank for enriching the game that is so near and dear to us.

This concludes the Draft Blueprints coverage of the best teams in the NFL. Next post will examine an example of poor draft behavior, as demonstrated by the former Detroit Lions’ GM Matt Millen.

From Scout to Front-Office

(View A.J. Smith Draft Blueprints here)

Over the past five years, we have known the San Diego Chargers to be an annual playoff contender. But they have most definitely not been that way for long.

In 2004, the Chargers had an ownership change, which led to the promotion of one of the scouting department executives to the prestigious GM position.  A.J. Smith was handed that position and immediately began to place his stamp on the organization in the pivotal ‘04 Draft, where he managed to trade the number one overall pick (Eli Manning) to get Philip Rivers and several other draft picks for the future.

Since that time, MR. Smith has acquired high-caliber players such as Shawne Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, Marcus McNeil, Michael Turner, Shaun Phillips, and Eric Weddle.

For a former scout, it comes as no surprise to discover that Smith has built this team around the draft. Last I heard, somewhere around 20 of the team’s starters have come via the draft.
With that squad, San Diego has made a couple of runs deep into the playoffs. But they haven’t reached the championship yet. Who knows when they will go all the way?