Who Will Rise to the Top?
I hoped you enjoyed reading about the study of the Rivals100 prospect rankings. But I would be remiss if I didn’t take that information and make some future predictions with it. After all, one of the best reasons to study the past is so we can venture to foretell the future.
Before we delve into a bit of new data, I want to set the mood, or paint a mental image, if you will. Now, let’s imagine that we are sitting in on the first day of class at the Gridiron University.
[Bell rings]
The aged professor sets his briefcase on a desk, then goes over to a computer, squinting through his black, thick-rimmed glasses to pull up his Powerpoint slides. After several minutes, he looks up, and with a loud voice we hear “good morning, class. Welcome to Football 101.”
[Teaching assistant passes out syllabus]
Time passes slowly, and just as you start to nod off to sleep, you hear:
“If you would please turn to page 4 of your syllabus, I would like to go over the grade distribution for this course.”
“The grade scale is relative. Based on previous years, I have given an average of 32% A’s, 22% of which have been an A+. After that, 4% have been B’s. The rest were failing grades. I expect that your grades will follow that trend.”
Having heard this, you suddenly have the urge to look at around the classroom. You find that all the students are glancing at each other, sizing up their competition. At this time, you realize a surly-looking group of 10 oversized guys sitting in the corner of the room. Their names are as follows (complete with 2008 statistics):
1. Jimmy Clausen (6’3, 217 lbs) (QB, Notre Dame): 60.9% completion, 25 touchdowns/17 interceptions, 3100 passing yards, 132 QB rating
2. Joe McKnight (6’0, 200 lbs) (HB, Southern Cal): 659 rush yards, 7.4 yards per carry, 2 rushing TD’s
3. Eric Berry (5’11, 203 lbs) (DB, Tennessee): 72 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 interceptions
4. Ryan Mallett (6’7, 248 lbs) (QB, Arkansas-transfer from Michigan): Sat out last season because he transferred schools.
5. Carlos Dunlap ( 6’6, 290 lbs) (DE, Florida): 9.5 sacks, 13.5 tackles for loss, 39 tackles, started 2 games
6. Everson Griffen (6’3, 265 lbs) (DE, Southern Cal): 4.5 sacks in 3 starts, 18 tackles
7. Marvin Austin (6’2, 305 lbs) (DT, North Carolina): 35 tackles, 1 sack (had 4 sacks in ’07)
8. Ronald Johnson (6’1, 185 lbs) (WR, Southern Cal): 550 receiving yards, 8 TD’s
9. Torrey Davis (DT, Florida): Left school
10. Josh Oglesby (6’7, 330 lbs) (OL, Wisconsin): 3 starts at Right Tackle
[A hint for you, those 10 names are the 2007 Rivals top 10. They will all be juniors this year, and therefore have the option to enter the NFL Draft at season's end.]
If a grade of A+ was the equivalent of a being a top 10 pick in the NFL Draft, an A was equivalent to 1st round status (after the top 10), a B equaled 2nd round status, and anything later than that was a F, then who would pass and who would fail?
Here is my best guess at answering that question:
-Top 10 draft picks will be Carlos Dunlap and Eric Berry. Dunlap has the build to make scouts drool, and his production based on number of starts is astounding. Berry is a fixture on a tough Tennessee defense. He also has ideal size to play in the NFL, and his great production shows he has a nose for the football.
-The other first round selection should be either Jimmy Clausen or Joe McKnight. My study showed Rivals has 80% accuracy rate when predicting 1st round potential for the top 2 picks in their rankings. Although, I think Clausen in extremely over-hyped, he has shown growth in his two seasons at Notre Dame. If you throw in the terrible offensive line play, he hasn’t done too badly. However, I am not sure he has demonstrated the decision making ability and maturity to lead an NFL team. No doubt, he will have to show those skills to become the elite QB he is supposed to be.
Joe McKnight has awesome athleticism, but will have to put on more weight for NFL teams to feel comfortable with him as a workhorse running back.
That’s my best guess right now…but you were in the classroom watching with me. Who do you think will succeed in this group?
This is another great piece of writing, David. I agree with you in your positive assessments of Berry and Dunlap, but I believe Clausen, McKnight, and Mallett have underwhelmed in their collegiate careers to this point. I realize Clausen is stuck in the worst era of Notre Dame’s storied history, McKnight is playing for a team that is so overloaded with talent that it probably has blue chip janitors, and Mallett had to transfer due to coaching changes, but these guys put themselves into these situations. The hype Clausen continues to get as a pro prospect is a little sickening. It reminds me of the Brady Quinn era when you would see outlandish rankings on SI and ESPN that claimed he was already like the third best quarterback in the country (behind Brady and Manning) even though he had yet to take a single professional snap at that point.
Its great to have you back here Ghostwriter,
you always provide a breath of fresh air here, and you help improve my writing with your comments!
This piece was fun to write. Ill be doing more things like this after I finish up with some of this historical analysis.
Eric Berry is quickly becoming a super player, and he is only heading into his junior year. Same with Dunlap, of the little film ive seen on him, the guy has loads of potential and production to back it up.
Being a Michigan fan, I dont like Clausen too much, either. The guy has to show a lot more to be a serious pro prospect.