Archive for May 6th, 2009

Rivals’ Top 100: A look back

There is a saying that goes something like this: “To know where you’re going, you have to know where you’ve been.” Isn’t that nice? That quote nicely sums up the subject of today’s piece. I got to thinking about the new NFL rookies, wondering how highly regarded they were coming out of high school. Were the 1st round draft picks at the top of their recruiting classes (which essentially are the college version of the Draft), or did they become great only during college. Additionally, I wanted to know how accurately talent scouts can predict long-term potential at the high school level?

Naturally, I set out to find the answers to these questions by going to Rivals.com, one of the most respected scouting websites that I know. I went to their list of the top recruits (affectionately called the Rivals100) from their earliest record (2002) up to 2006, which happens to be last class where any players were eligible for the NFL Draft.

Originally, I thought maybe there should be a direct correlation between the Rivals100 and their NFL Draft value. However, there are many reasons why a player may or may not be drafted high, if at all. The main explanation for this is the relationship between the college game and the pro game. Some player’s talent translates well to pro schemes, while certain high school athletes may have potential in schemes that the NFL may deem “gimicky.”

The other significant factor in play considers the maturity, experience level, and amount of quality coaching that a player has received while in high school. Some players are very raw entering college, and will not be as highly regarded as more polished players. For example, the 1st overall of the 2008 NFL Draft was Michigan LT Jake Long. Surprisingly, he wasn’t on the Rivals100.  The only ways to explain such a gaff are to say either he developed significantly in college, or Rivals made a major mistake in evaluating him. Of course, this is an even more imperfect science than the NFL Draft.

Listed below are the players from the Rivals100 that were selected in the first or second round of the 2006- 2009 NFL Drafts:

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Key: * denotes graduated after 3 years of eligibility

**denotes 5th year senior status

Next post will be a report on the findings of this data. In the meantime, let all this information mull over inside your brains for a day or two. If you notice any trends, I’d be more than happy to hear them (and post them, if you wish).