23. New England Patriots
-Trade Down
With around $15 million total cap space to work, and the ensuing contracts of Tom Brady, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour, New England wants to be especially frugal with their cap this season. Furthermore, when they include compensatory picks, the Patriots have 6 of of the top 100 draft picks (12 total). Given how few holes there are in the roster, NEpatriotsdraft.com speculates that Belichick will try to move some of those selections to next year. I have to agree with this assesment since it seems that every year Belichick, the master of the salary cap, swings a trade to maximize value for his picks.
Sitting at the 23rd pick, Belichick might like the players available at the 35th spot enough to try trading the 1st rounder for either a later 1st rounder or a future draft pick. I know many people think Belichick will draft another LB because it is a “big” need, but his defensive schemes are very complex, and they demand a huge amount out of the OLB’s. Consequently, I don’t think any of the OLB’s selected in the first round would break the starting roster in their rookie season. Plus, I think that Belichick likes Pierre Woods and Shawn Crable as potential starters in place of Mike Vrabel.
This all makes sense if you see LB as the Pats greatest need, especially if you consider how the Pats haven’t selected an OLB prior to the 3rd round ever. I’m telling you, Belichick loves veterans.
-Connor Barwin (OLB-DE/Cincinnati)
- Connor Barwin (NFL.com)
If I am wrong about trading down, the next most likely scenario is that New England selects the Connor Barwin from Cincinnati. After having a monster combine and pro day, he doesn’t seem to be such a reach here. Just like his predecessor Mike Vrabel, Barwin is extraordinarily versatile. At Cincinnati, he played TE, DE, and OLB. He is quite raw, considering how he had only 1 year of defensive experience. But with that 1 year, he was able to record 11 sacks on the season. Plus, Patriot OLB’s are usually very big (between 260-275 lbs), and Barwin has a large enough frame to add a few pounds to fit that mold (6′4 256 lbs).
NFLdraftscout says this about Barwin:
“Very coachable because of his intelligence, work ethic and motor.”
Sounds very much like a Belichick guy to me.
The Patriots may wait to see if he falls to them at the 35th pick, but Belichick has demonstrated he is willing to reach a little bit for a guy who fits his system.
-James Laurinaitis (ILB/Ohio St)
- James Laurinaitis (NFL.com)
Generally speaking, the Patriots don’t use 1st round picks on positions where there currently is a starter in place, with two of the exceptions being Ben Watson and Ty Warren. So, I fail to see Belichick selecting James Laurinaitis here with Tedy Bruschi still on the roster. Besides, Laurinaitis didn’t have to take on and shed blocks as frequently as he would be required in a 3-4 alignment. Nevertheless, he is exactly the type of high character, high football IQ player that Belichick seeks. Honestly, he seems a more likely candidate for the 35th selection instead of this one here. But hey, I’ve been wrong before….
-Alphonso Smith of Wake Forest is a long shot here, but is another Belichick system player and the secondary would benefit from his ball-hawking skills. Still, he might become a serious option with the 35th pick.
-Clay Matthews also is a player that fits the Patriot system well. He has a big upside, but he isn’t one of my prime candidates for lack of size. Belichick seems to have an affinity for really big OLB’s, and Matthews is rather small at 240 lbs.
Next on the clock: Atlanta Falcons
See entire Hybrid Mock Draft here
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Belichick can be a pretty tough read. I agree that he will probably pull off some trade deal that lands the Pats an extra first rounder next year. Plus, players always seem to play over their heads in his system, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see someone like Crable slide in and contribute in a large way in ‘09.
I think Clay Matthews fits the Patriots system pretty well. If he is available at 23, I think it would be hard for the Pats to pass on him.
But you think Matthews will be selected before then?
Thats a good question Fat,
I heavily considered Matthews because he does have the intangibles for the Pats system, but Belichick seems to like his OLBs to be big. Matthews is only 240 lbs, whereas current and former OLB’s in the system are all 250-275 lbs. The only exception I can think of is Shawn Crable, but he has a big enough frame to hold another 20 pounds or so. I think that Matthews frame is closer to its max?
I won’t say he cant be chosen though…. but my inclination is that Belichick trades out of the first rounder. The Pats have so many picks and so few serious holes right now. Plus I am not sure the team will dip into the linebacker well so soon after going for Mayo unless the prospect is extremely intriguing. Connor Barwin is a VERY intriguing player because of his unique ability to play 3 positions plus special teams.
To answer your other question, in my estimation there is only a small possibility that he will be selected before this pick.
I agree with the size argument for sure. But I think an exception could be made for Matthews. As a Pats fan, I do hope they trade down, because their biggest need in my opinion is a play-maker in the secondary. And I think they can get a good DB with the 35th pick.
I wish the season could start tomorrow. The Pats are arguably the best team in the league (with a healthy Tom Brady)….they filled holes with Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden, Joey Galloway, and Chris “TD-Maker” Baker. And they still have 4 picks in the first two rounds. Dave, it is a good day to be a Pats fan.
It sure is a good time to be a Pats fan. I think Merriweather will have a breakout year. He could be the impact player New England needs in the secondary.
As a big Pats fan, here is a bit of interesting info for you. My brother used to work for the Michigan wolverines football camps during the time Tom Brady was QB there, and actually got a chance to catch balls for Brady!