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9. Green Bay Packers
(updated 3/4)
-Knowshon Moreno (HB/Georgia)
- NFL.com
Packers’ running back Ryan Grant did a decent job last season (ran for 1,200 yards). But he is not the elusive home run hitting running back that opposing defenses fear. As Morris, an avid Packers fan mentioned (in the comments section below), GM Ted Thompson’s draft philosophy is to grab the best player available instead of selecting for need. In order to relieve the pressure from Aaron Rodgers in the passing game, Green Bay may decide to build a powerful tandem in the running game.
At the #9 selection of the draft, the obvious choices of Aaron Curry, B.J. Raji, and the top 2 offensive tackles will most likely be off the board. But the best running back and one of the better players in this draft IS still available: Knowshon Moreno. This guy has all the essential ingredients to be a top runner in the NFL: superb vision, fluid hips, excellent agility, great burst, good hands, durability, and most importantly, unrivaled intensity. I have always believed he a better back than Chris Wells of Ohio State. Selecting Moreno here makes sense to me if Thompson goes for the best available player.
-Trade Down*
Since any prime targets should be gone by now, Green Bay could look to trade down to avoid reaching. This way they also receive greater value for their money. I would suspect that maybe the Jets or some other team selecting in the mid-late first round would be a likely scenario. And remember, Ted Thompson prides himself for having an eye for value.
-Michael Oher (LT/Ole Miss)
- NFL.com
At first glance, 34 sacks (rank 15th among NFL teams) isn’t too striking. But I can recall numerous times when Aaron Rodgers was running for his life or getting smashed by speed rushers coming from the blind side. The team’s left tackle, Chad Clifton has had an exceptional career. But he has clearly lost a step this season (allowing 7.5 sacks).
Until today, most people, including myself had the Packers as a lock for some defensive player to help the transition to their new 3-4 defense. And this does make sense based on Ted Thompson’s draft history. He has only chosen one offensive lineman in the first two rounds since he arrived in Green Bay. But upon closer analysis, he never had to use a high pick on a tackle when Mark Tauscher (seriously, is it just me or does he look like Jack Black?) and Chad Clifton have done such a good job. These two have both reached the ends of their careers, and may force Ted Thompson to replace at least one of them right away.
With Tauscher coming off ACL surgery, the Pack may try Oher on the right side while he learns the offense.
- NFL.com
-Vontae Davis (CB/Illinois)
Considering how the Packers defensive line needs work, I know this pick is somewhat of a luxury. But hear me out on this one. Ted Thompson generally likes to take the best player available, and one of the best available happens to fulfill an area of need as well. As Al Harris is basically finished in the NFL, Davis would add youth to an already aging set of corners. Even with Atari Bigby going down mid-season, the Packer pass defense was still one of the best in the league. So I can understand if that is reason to pass on this spot. I just think that Davis would make him and Charles Woodson into one of the best tandems in the NFL.
Davis had an excellent combine, allowing him to finish in the top 10 defensive back performers in the 40-yard dash, 20 yard shuttle, bench press, and 3-cone drill. Few players possess his size and athleticism. The only detractor is that he was benched late season because of some character issues.
Keep voting so we can compare the fan picks with my own! At the end of my completed mock draft I will show all the results. Great job so far.
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Anyone who believes that Malcom Jenkins is anywhere near the top of Ted’s draft board is watching/reading too many talking head opinions. Jenkins is at best a bottom of round 1 type player, and his performance at the combine proves it.
Unless the likes of DE/OLB Orakpo, LB Cushing, LB Curry are available, Thompson will likely trade down as he has done 50% of the time in round one.
OT Oher is a possibility here too, especially if Tauscher leaves, but also…don’t count out the notion that Ted might well just draft the best player available REGARDLESS of POSITION.
It would not shock me in the least to see ol’ TT draft RB Knowshon Moreno. Sure we have Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson, but what else? Moreno is an immeidate upgrade and might well be the best athlete at #9 (should TT keep the pick). Don’t reject this out of hand…nothing Ted does suprises me anymore.
Hey Morris,
first off, thanks for the well-thought comment. Do you really think Thompson has Jenkins that low?
I know Jenkins has his shortcomings but he is a decent player who is similar in style to Charles Woodson and Al Harris. I know he had a poor combine, but his college career was excellent. Teams just stopped throwing his way (look at the Bowl game against Texas). If it makes you feel better, Vontae Davis could be a better option at corner.
Secondly, good point about Moreno. He is by far my favorite of all the running backs in this class because of his intensity and desire. I could see Thompson considering him there. After all, Ryan Grant really isn’t what I’d call an elite runner.
This was a very hard pick for me to analyze because the Packers could really go in any number of directions here (trade down being one of them).
You made a good point, and it helped me remember that I actually considered Vontae Davis and Alphonso Smith to be better prospects at corner. Before the combine, I was laready thinking Jenkins should be a safety.
Hi David.
Thanks for the reply. Just to brandish my bonafides, I write for a fantasy football website (www.ffmastermind.com) as the Packer’s in-state correspondent. I am a die-hard fan…but also a guy who refuses to let his propensity toward “homer-ism” interfere with sound analysis.
The facts are the facts. Two things are certain with Ted Thompson (aka: The Polar Bear) Ted Thompson trades down A LOT and he drafts rarely for NEED. Let’s look at some examples.
Last year, Ted Traded out of round 1, and with his very first pick (round 2, pick #36 overall) he took Jordy Nelson, WR. This despite the presence of Driver, Jennings, James Jones, Ruvell Martin, etc.
In the year prior (2007), despite having a veritable bevy of D-linemen, the Polar Bear drafted the player who he beleived was the best available in Justin Harrell (perhaps Ted’s greatest misfire).
The point of it is this: Thompson rightly believes that because the draft is such a crapshoot, that you double down your potential for screwing up by drafting for need ahead of any other consideration. That is, a given player at a given skill position, in an area of a draft board may turn out to be a total bust (Kijana Carter anyone?).
BUT, if you draft purely for best available…at least you are not trying to force a rookie into a role that is surrounded by urgency to fill it. Remember that there are cuts mid to late summer and trades can happen as well.
Sure, I’ll admit that this could be considered “playing it safe”, and there have been gobs of examples where drafting for need by a team HAS worked out (Marshwn Lynch, 2007: Bills), but I will also say that for every M. Lynch there are at least 10 more Alex Smiths and Pacman Jones(es)!
So, Ted may very well do something the talking heads and armchair analysts like ourselves can’t quite see coming. Moreno is not out of the question. This despite what the homers who pick AFTER the Packers who are married to drafting for need will say in hopes of convincing the fates that Moreno is still on the board when their team picks: I actually saw one guy’s mock draft having Moreno going near the bottom 4th of round 1!
Do I think Jenkins is that bad an athlete? Naw. But his combine ALONE will require he fall past #9…and David, you are ABSOLUTELY right that he is probably better suited to play SS/FS rather than CB. He reminds me a bit of LeRoy Butler in that respect.
I voted that the Polar Bear would trade down. Curry will be off the board, and if DT Raji and OT Monroe are also gone (distinct possibilities both) I’d be willing to bet on it, unless he thought that the best available (Moreno or Wells perhaps) offered him a chance at greatness.
Should TT trade down, look for him to look for athletes who can play in different alignments (OLB Cushing, LB Maualuga) and/or serve Special teams (Percy Harvin?).
Hi Morris,
thanks again for coming back to my site, and especially for contributing such a nice and thoughtful comment.
I’ll be the first to admit when I am wrong, and am glad that you straightened me out
To be blatently honest, the Packers draft situation has been the most difficult to write about thus far. I do believe this is a result of Thompson’s draft philosphy (as you mentioned). After reading your post, I feel that it may be appropriate to tweak my page for the Packers.
I do like the Packers despite being a loyal Lions fan, and I want to give this post my best effort.
Thanks again for the informative comment!