Everyone wants to know when the first quarterback will be selected and who it will be. Most people (especially draft experts) such as ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. are so sure that Matthew Stafford (Georgia) will be taken by the Lions at or near the top of the draft. Other rebellious gurus go on a limb and say Mark Sanchez (USC) will go first. I happen to be very skeptical of these opinions. Both of these arguments scare me very much. Taking quarterbacks can be very spotty, and the teams choosing in the top 5 really can’t afford to make a mistake.

It’s hard for me to believe either of these guys are worthy of a top pick when they have rather large question marks.

First of all, despite liking Sanchez, I feel he made a colossal mistake by leaving USC early. He was simply too inconsistent throughout the season; only truly turning heads in his final game in the Rose Bowl. Yes, I love his moxie in the pocket, a quick release, and good accuracy. But Sanchez has hardly more than one year of experience starting.  And according to statistical analyses, the best indicator of future success for quarterbacks happens to be experience. If you add his injury problems to the list, he is a risky pick to take before the middle of round one.

Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, has hypnotized some with his impressive arm strength. But there is more to being a quarterback than the velocity of their throws.  If I remember correctly, JaMarcus Russell  was graded highly for the very same reason. And we all know how well that panned out  for the Raiders…. As a matter of fact, I see many similarities between Russell and Stafford.

To jog your memory, both guys  played for SEC teams with a great deal of talent around them. Furthermore, both players’ calling cards are their extraordinarily powerful arms.

Nevertheless, possibly Stafford’s greatest flaw is his inconsistency. If you look at some of his games, including his performance against Michigan State, he really struggled. Only at the very end did he warm up and get comfortable in the pocket. I understand he has been asked to make tough NFL type throws, but  a quarterback is judged by all of his throws, not simply the ones that result in scores.

However, I think both  guys will eventually contribute to the teams they play for. Yet, I find it a stretch to draft them with a top 5 pick in this year’s draft.  They are enigmatic because they show flashes of brilliance, just not frequently enough for my comfort level.  In other words, I don’t think they look like the “too good to pass on” picks of the 2009 NFL Draft. But the combine has a way of changing things…

Would you take Stafford or Sanchez in the top 5?

Part 2 coming soon!