I’ve grown tired of the idea of traditional mock drafts. So I designed one that accounts for possible trade spots and for a range of scenarios. That way when a player is chosen well before he should be, you won’t be thrown for a loop when your team is on the clock.
Each team will have a few players (listed in order of likelihood of being picked) that I believe they can target, depending on who else is chosen prior to that pick. So naturally, you may see a few players show up more than once.
Each post will look in-depth at 1 team starting with pick #1:
1. Detroit Lions
- NFL.com
- Aaron Curry (OLB/Wake Forest):
For a team with one of the NFL’s worst defenses of all time, Curry could be the catalyst to jump start a roster starving for talent. Seldom do you see such a complete player come along, and when you do, take him. He simply has no weakness: very vocal leader, extraordinary intensity, awesome speed and athleticism, intelligence, and no injury history. I can’t think of a bad thing to say about this guy. I was super excited to see him destroy competitors at the combine, where he placed first in all the drills except bench press (7th place overall). To top it off, he looked awesome in position drills and posted one of the fastest 40 yard dash times amongst all of the defensive players (4.56 seconds).
Although he doesn’t play a premium position, he is definitely the best player available. Let’s face it, the Lions simply cannot afford to miss on this pick because the money issues would cripple them beyond belief. He obviously is being seriously considered because Lions GM Martin Mayhew took only about 4 players, including Curry out to dinner during the combine.
-Jason Smith (LT/Baylor)
- NFL.com
After allowing 52 sacks (2nd worst in NFL), it’s hard to argue Detroit’s offensive line doesn’t need some help. Left tackle Jeff Backus allowed more sacks than nearly every other starting left tackle during 2008. Offensive guard Edwin Mulitalo was sent packing, and there is little to look forward to behind him. Basically, Jason Smith could step in early and help anchor the line at left tackle, while Jeff Backus could theoretically be moved to guard or vice versa.
Both Mayhew and coach Schwartz emphasized how essential the trenches are to winning. They want to be able to run the ball and stop the run. Jason Smith, although a better pass blocker than run blocker has the best tools of the top 3 tackle prospects.
-Matthew Stafford (QB/Georgia)
Although Daunte Culpepper was recently resigned, the likely departure of Dan Orlovsky leaves the Lions a bit thin at the quarterback position. Anyone who watched the 2008 season knows the Lions don’t have an all-pro caliber player there, so they might grab Matthew Stafford if they evaluate him highly enough.
- NFL.com
Most people argue Stafford is the obvious pick for Detroit because history tells us that new regimes like to pick a quarterback to begin their rebuilding plans. Bill Polian did it in Indianapolis and Carolina by choosing Peyton Manning and Kerry Collins respectively. Bill Parcells chose Drew Bledsoe when he came to the Patriots. But here is the twist. The Lions are in a unique position since they are the first team to ever go 0-16. This unique situation calls for a unique fix.
Stafford was one of the 4 guys to be taken out to dinner by Detroit during the combine. But that could easily have been a smokescreen to increase trade value. However, he is a smart guy who has a wonderful set of physical skills.Yet, he does suffer from inconsistent play, as you can see by Stafford’s numbers against top 25 defenses. And I doubt he is quite as ready for the pro game as most top flight quarterbacks. He will likely have to sit a while before he is ready to start. Additionally, I think Stafford actually hurt himself by not throwing at the combine. Coach Jim Schwartz expressed disappointment in a player who doesn’t have the will to compete.
Ultimately, the Lions are insistent on signing their top pick before draft day. Stafford is the least likely to do this because his agent is known around the league for being a hardballer, fighting to get top dollar contracts for his players.
Next On the Clock: St. Louis Rams
Make sure to vote so I can include the fan picks into each post. We can make a little game out of comparing the fan pick with my own!
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Hey MichiganD…
I got your invite from the Freep comments. Nice looking site. 1) I like Curry myself, I think he will be a dominant player and he showed up at the combine with a good attitude and work-ethic. He’s a player, and moving to the middle in a 4-3 isn’t going to phase him, despite what some think. He strikes me as a hitter. 2) Jason Smith will probable become a good pro, but much like at QB, it’s hard to plug a rookie LT into an NFL-offense (especially into an existing weak/rebuilding line) and get immediate, positive results. The pass-blocking requirements between pro and college (regardless if he played in a “pro-style” offense in school) are night and day and a rookie would be tested continuously. I agree with you that Stafford would have to sit for at LEAST one season (undergrad QBs haven’t done well out of the gate) but I wonder who else DTL are going to have behind Culpepper (?), because a rookie would probably be the #3 man. I don’t know if Orlovsky is going to get a better offer to move. Doesn’t sound like it’s the $$ as much as the situation with him. If Kitna stays, however, I think Orlo’s gone. Stanton is still a big ???
Peetie,
I think youre right that Curry could move to the middle if he needs to. He is very smart and versatile. That’s really what you look for when trying to guage whether a player can move to another spot.
As far as O-linemen go, some can immediately make an impact (Joe Thomas, Jake Long) but those guys may be exceptions rather than the rule. Jason Smith could at least challenge some of the linemen for playing time during his rookie year, dont you think?
And I wouldn’t mind taking Stafford if we were in a better situation. As it is, we are in a really bad place and ca’t afford to take him right now (in my opinion).
Oh, and Stanton- I have no idea what’s going on there. If he is a developmental guy, then Millen made a huge mistake drafting him in the second round! He has had, what, 3 years to develop? I wouldnt expect anything from him anymore if he doesnt see time soon.
Thanks man for coming to my site, and for your generous words too!
David,
Enjoyed your analysis. I also think Curry is our best choice. I am a fan of Monroe or Smith as well. I think what Detroit does at #1 will actually be reflective of what they want to do at #20. If they take Stafford, they’ll follow with an OT at #20 or #33. If they go Curry, I think you’ll see an ILB at #20 or an OT. If we go OT at #1, I think we go LB at #20 and DT/DE at #33.
You mention in your analysis that Detroit brought in 4 players for dinner, but you only discuss 3. I had is disagreement in the organization concering which OT is higher rated, Monroe or Smith. Was Monroe the 4th guy?
Hi Mackey,
thanks for stopping by the site and for leaving a nice comment!
As far as the 4 dinner guests go, your instinct was right on the mark. Monroe was player I left out. The ony reason I did that was based on how Jason Smith seemed to have a better combine. Therefore, I went ahead and put him as more likely to be drafted by a small margin.