Quarterbacks
While I was peeking at a football forum, I stumbled upon a thread which provided a link to an article that used statistics to analyze the quarterback class for 2009. I thought this was interesting because a friend and I were just discussing what statistics might be most indicative of a quarterback’s future in the NFL. As it turns out, David Lewin, a statistician, discovered that completion percentage and number of college starts are the key stats to examine (Read the interview between Evan Silva and Lewin on Rotoworld here). So I went to work, looking at the completion percentages against top 25 defenses (total defense measured in points allowed, and pass defense) of the top 3 quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Josh Freeman (Kansas State), and Mark Sanchez (USC).
The most striking difference between the quarterbacks is how they play in big games.
To see my full report, please open the attached Word document below:
2008 Quarterback Stat Comparison
Matt Stafford played against 7 teams with defenses in the top 25 in either pass defense or total points allowed per game. Of those 7 games, 3 were against elite defenses (Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida). Unfortunately, in 2 of those games his completion percentage varied from his season average (61.4%) by about -4.5%. I was happy to see that he really handled Tennessee by throwing with the most accuracy of his season (69.4%). His stats were the most consistent of the three prospects over the course of the season. Nevertheless, he suffered bouts of averageness against aggressive defenses… like the ones he will see next year.
Mark Sanchez’s stats suggest that he performs best when it matters most. Against Penn State and Ohio State, who both ranked in the top 15 in both defensive categories, his completion percentages were good, especially when he destroyed the Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl (80%). He was subject to hot and cold streaks; he threw for only 54.55% against 10th ranked pass defense of UCLA and 58.3% against Arizona’s 13th ranked pass defense. Even with those cold spots, he managed to maintain 65.8% completion for the season.
But whatever inconsistencies either Stafford or Sanchez had, they don’t compare to Josh Freeman. Some people argue that he has the highest ceiling of the top quarterbacks. But he probably has the lowest floor too.
Not once during the season did his team play against a top 25 defense. So I looked at his 2 toughest defensive opponents: Oklahoma and Nebraska. He fared alright against Oklahoma by throwing for 56.9%, but absolutely caved against Nebraska. For whatever reason, Freeman had his worst game of the season, completing only 38.9 % of his passes.
To summarize, I feel that Stafford has been most exposed to top defenses in the SEC. His completion percentages were more consistent, but they took a decent hit when he played exceptional defenses. In other words, the difference between his worst game and best game was not that great from a statistical standpoint. But his stats in those games didn’t do much for him one way or the other. I give credit to Stafford for playing in the SEC, but I wouldn’t grade him highly enough to pick him in the top 5 of the draft.
Sanchez ‘s best games are incredible, but he needs to rise to all occasions. He is very difficult to evaluate for that simple reason. He will rip a top 10 team apart, then disappear against an unranked opponent. He needs to be challenged on a regular basis to succeed in the NFL. Come draft day, a team will likely choose him in the middle or end of round one.
Freeman looks like a second round prospect when you examine his stats. Completing only 40% of passes and 56 % against the two best teams on his schedule is just gross. His lack of good competition in college will really hurt his development when he gets to the pros.
However, at the end of the day, whoever picks these guys is taking a massive risk. All 3 of these kids are underclassmen. History says that juniors who leave early are more than likely doomed to fail. Rex Grossman, Andre Ware, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell didn’t do too well.
Just ask Ryan Leaf.
Next Time: Running Backs
